Climate Change - Some Notes From A Lecture.
Arsenal V Chelsea - who'll win?
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What is climate change?
“Global Warming” - doesn't tell the whole story
Certainly a rise in global air temperature
This means more energy is fed into weather systems
So more extreme weather conditions – frequency and intensity
More and worse hurricanes
Flooding
Reduced landmass due to sea level rise
What causes climate change?
Increased CO2, methane, etc in atmosphere
Gases trap heat like the glass of greenhouse
Greenhouse gases released from long-term storage in ground
Fossil fuels - coal, oil, gas - locked in rocks
Methane from peat bogs, swamps gets released as temp rises
Gases locked in permafrost released as ice melts
These gases stay in atmosphere for a long time
Human impacts (stats from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center - CDIAC)
UK
Steep rise throughout C19 - Ind Rev
Total has started to level out
>3 ton C per capita in mid C20
Now ~2.7 ton C/year per capita
UK has 1% of world population but produces 2.3% of world's CO2
USA
Was outputting same C as UK now in 1905
Total still rising even today
~6 ton C per capita in 1970s
5.5 ton C per capita even today
US has 5% of world population but produces 23% of world's CO2
China
Was outputting same C as UK now in 1960
Total is rising very sharply
Now 6x current UK output
Yet less than 1 ton C/year per capita
China has 22% of world population but produces 15.5% of world's CO2
Climate Change is happening NOW
People have a tendency to think it's all in future
But global warming has been happening since [audience guesses] 1910
Antarctic ice melting faster
British Antarctic Survey: sea level rise underestimated
>13000km2 sea ice lost in 50 years
At least 15% of annual 2mm sea level rise in last 5 years down to Antarctic ice
Penguin colonies being trapped by Antarctic sea ice breaking off from the main ice sheet
Greenland Ice Sheet melt increased
NASA satelite observations of Greeland have shown the ice sheet to be breaking up much faster than expected. in the journal "Science", NASA scientists spoke out without the approval of the Bush Administration – they warned sea levels could rise by 6 feet this century by the ice melt from Greenland. Yet more water would come from the Antarctic.
Arctic sea ice retreating
7.8m km2 in 1980
6.1m km2 in 2004
Heat Wave, Western Europe, 2003
25,000 people died
World Health Organisation says 150,000 people are dying annually due to global warming. This will double by 2020. The deaths are caused by increased spread of disease in Latin America, Asia and Africa - caused by higher temperatures
Greenpeace says that 1 in 4 plant and animal species could become extinct in the next 50 years. That's 1 million species at risk.
The area of the world affected by droughts has doubled since 1970.
Hadley Centre run climate models and emphasise there is still huge uncertainty on the rate by which the world will warm this century. Some models show a possibility of an 11°C global temperature rise by 2100
If we do nothing:
UK Climate Impacts Programme say expect 3 feet sea level rise by 2080 in S E England (if we carry on burning fossil fuels as before). The land is sinking as sea levels rise
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says expect temperature rises of up to 5.8°C by 2100 and sea level rise of nearly 1 metre - if we carry on burning as before.
EU has set policy target of no more than 2°C temperature rise
Even this would be enough to increase spread of malaria in Africa
UNEP warn "billions face hunger and starvation" if temperatures in the tropics increase by 2°C - the impact upon agriculture
This month, Christian Aid warned 182 million people would die in Africa this century due to diseases caused by climate change
What can be done?
Alternative technologies
Renewable energy
Wind turbines
Solar hot water
Solar PV
Wave
Tidal
Ground Source Heat Pump
Bio-fuels
Micro generation
Low-carbon
Carbon Sequestration – lock CO2 up underground
Energy efficient lightbulbs – each keeps ½ ton CO2 from being released during bulb's lifetime
CHP Boiler
Public transport
More efficient car
Hybrid petrol/electric
Smaller
NOT a 4x4
Carbon-free transport
Cycling
Walking
Lifestyle change
Don't fly abroad
Buy local produce - reduce food miles
Don't leave things on standby - switch them off: standby accounts for 10% of electricity usage in homes and offices
FoE
Big Ask with Friends of the Earth
Over half of MPs have signed EDM 178
Hoping to get CC bill included in Queen's speech
Sign online – seefoe.org.uk
Conclusion
This is the defining moral issue of our time. We, as individuals are all defined by our response to what is clearly an unprecedented threat. We will be judged by those that follow us.
On the Today programme on 29th March, the Archbishop of Canterbury said: “I think in the first instance the moral responsibility lies with absolutely everybody, not only in terms of examining our own lifestyle and asking what, concretely can be done, but also in sending a message to governments that this is recognised as a priority by the public.”
“Nobody ... likes talking about enforceable international protocols and yet unless there is a real change in attitude, we have to contemplate those very unwelcome possibilities if we want to the global economy not to collapse and millions, billions of people to die.”
“...we're looking at rising spirals of hunger and deprivation.”
The children born to your family will want to know one thing about you: What you did to stop this calamity that would destroy their lives. Did you fight tooth and nail to stop it, or did you simply accept what was being done - going along with the mass of people, making matters worse.
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