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The War in Syria - ISIS et al


Chinahand

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Most of the discussion of ISIS etc is spread over multiple threads, so being a neat minded sort of guy I thought I'd add another one!

It looks like the US has decided that the damage to civilian livelihoods is worth the damage to ISIS and so it has destroyed the local oil business in ISIS territory.

I'd earlier raised that the FT had done a really good investigative series of articles on how local towns under ISIS control had basically been left to continue trading oil and diesel to keep their diesel generators going.

Now, that's basically ended with the destruction of many of the trucks used to transport the oil.

The result will be civilian misery as the lights and power goes out, but also a further squeeze on ISIS.

 


Stinky had put this post into a topic derailed by Manxy, so I'll answer it here!

could you explain , possibly with or without the help of your trusty sidekick bobbo, why isis havent attacked israel yet chinahand please?


Stinky ... Bobbie is welcome to tweak your nose whenever he want's but if you want to understand why Isis hasn't attacked Israel look at a couple of maps:

 

thomas_van_linge_syria_february_2015.0.p

 

middle_east_climates.jpg

 

Syria consists of a more densely populated West and a far emptier East. The West has a mid-latitude climate, is hilly and populated by hilltop villages consisting of various ethnic groups - the most important ones Allawites Shi'ites and Sunnis. The East consists of desert and basically oasis towns. In the East interior is basically uninhabited and the towns are Sunni dominated apart from in the North where the relief starts to change again and the Kurds have been able to keep their redoubts.

 

Why hasn't ISIS attacked Israel - because there are miles and miles of hostile territory between them and Israel. That hostile territory is held by a whole mix of Allawites, Shi'ites, loyalists and rebels.

 

And they are fighting each other and causing Israel every so often to enforce its hegemony.

 

Israel is really concerned about Hizbollah and Iran gaining influence along the Golan Heights "border" and the results have been complicated with them killing an Iranian General "by mistake".

 

Link1 Link2

 

So why doesn't ISIS attack Israel? Because the territory between it and Israel is full of armed people hostile to ISIS (many of a totally different religion), and also because the relief is very different from the deserts giving ISIS's "technicals" a far lower tactical edge.

 

ISIS are the modern versiion of desert nomads using mobile firepower to its advantage - they've replaced the camel with a jeep mounted heavy machine gun.

 

In hilly territory that isn't nearly as effective where your mobility is constrained by geography and the high ground is controlled by your enemy.

 

And Israel watches its border from the sky like a hawk, and has struck multiple times to stop those it considers hostile to its interests gaining territory near the Golan.

 

Stinky I'm sure you'll find lots of conspiracy theories giving an alternative point of view, but geography, ethnography and military tactics give a pretty compelling explanation why ISIS is weak in the Syrian west.

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With that point in mind, should be interesting to see what position NATO takes over turkey downing a Russian aircraft over what the Russians claim was Syrian airspace last night. Seeing as they are the only ones actually with permission to fly over Syria in the first place.

 

A very worrying situation, might not take much for this to all go tits up.

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PM to deploy 10,000 British troops...on British streets...to fight terrorism.

 

1984 wasn't an instruction manual

 

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ten-thousand-troops-flood-britains-6887367

 

"Ten thousand troops could flood Britain’s streets to fight terrorists as David Cameron abolishes the “divide” between the Army and police.

In a landmark move, the PM announced a 10,000-strong fighting force to support cops in the face of Islamic terrorism .

Labour accused him of using soldiers to plug gaps when the Tories slash police budgets in the Spending Review .

Speaking after a visit to French president Francois Hollande in Paris, the PM said: “As the murders on the streets of Paris reminded us so starkly, ISIL is not some remote problem thousands of miles away - it is a direct threat to our security at home and abroad.”

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