Albert Tatlock Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 IMHO, there is only one person responsible for this test - dubya. From the BBC "Relations between the US and North Korea have been deteriorating since President George W Bush labelled North Korea part of an "axis of evil" in January 2002. Tensions really started escalating the following October, when the US accused North Korea of developing a secret, uranium-based nuclear weapons programme. Since the October 2002 confrontation, North Korea has restarted a mothballed nuclear power station, thrown out inspectors from the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency and pulled out of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. It has also upped its frequently doom-laden rhetoric, warning of the risk of nuclear war. It is often very difficult to tell what lies behind North Korea's moves. Pyongyang and its mercurial leader Kim Jong-il act in erratic and contradictory ways. But it seems possible that North Korea has been trying to use the nuclear issue as a hard-line ploy to negotiate a non-aggression pact and improved economic aid from the US. Now that it appears to have given up with negotiation, other countries in the region and the US will have to urgently rethink their strategy." As Lonan3 says apportioning blame isn't so easy as you claim Albert. If the US finding out that the North Koreans have reneged on a deal and challenging them on it is the US escallating this issue then you can say the US are responsible. But in my view its the breaking of the agreement not to develop weapon's technologies that is the substantive issue. The North Koreans have been secretly developing Nuclear weapons technology for years, and have broken deals where they agreed not to do so. Are you really saying if Al Gore had got a few extra votes North Korea wouldn't be a nuclear power today? That seems doubtful ... maybe if Dubya wasn't president the situation MIGHT be less confrontational, but I don't think the facts on the ground would be particularly different ... North Korea going out to get Nuclear Weapons, the US and the rest of the International community wanting to stop them achieving this ambition. The North Koreans cheated on Clinton, why do you think they wouldn't cheat on a President Gore? Bush wacking - easy. Solving this problem - hard. This is not 'Bush wacking'. IMHO, the US effectively provoked N Korea to carry out this test, with continued 'threats' of direct action and nothing but unhelpful rhetoric and sabre rattling since 2002. They are also on the wrong path with sanctions, which will do nothing other than isolate N Korea at the expense of it's people, and acelerate the development of nuclear weapons as paranoia is rife in the N Korea administration. Only China can resolve this situation, by putting far more greater pressure on N Korea (and if China realises it) giving China it's first great opportunity to demonstrate it's committment to internationalism and globalisation as a global superpower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebees Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Absolutely Albert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mollag Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Perhaps the USA should invade N Korea and bring peace and democracy to the oppresed people who will welcome them with flower parades and cups of tea, its how it works in Dubyas mind. Sensibly though, why is this a crisis, when Pakistan was a pariah state pre 2001, no crisis, Israel, mad as a bag of ferrets, no crisis. Personally i find the USA to be the most likely to go nuclear----once more. They scare the shit outa me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Tatlock Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Perhaps the USA should invade N Korea and bring peace and democracy to the oppresed people who will welcome them with flower parades and cups of tea, its how it works in Dubyas mind. Sensibly though, why is this a crisis, when Pakistan was a pariah state pre 2001, no crisis, Israel, mad as a bag of ferrets, no crisis. Personally i find the USA to be the most likely to go nuclear----once more. They scare the shit outa me. Let's hope dubya gets his hands tied at the U.S. November elections. I sure hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinahand Posted October 10, 2006 Author Share Posted October 10, 2006 This is not 'Bush wacking'. IMHO, the US effectively provoked N Korea to carry out this test, with continued 'threats' of direct action and nothing but unhelpful rhetoric and sabre rattling since 2002. They are also on the wrong path with sanctions, which will do nothing other than isolate N Korea at the expense of it's people, and acelerate the development of nuclear weapons as paranoia is rife in the N Korea administration. Only China can resolve this situation, by putting far more greater pressure on N Korea (and if China realises it) giving China it's first great opportunity to demonstrate it's committment to internationalism and globalisation as a global superpower. I'm not quite sure how you can want China to put pressure on N Korea, while saying sanctions are the wrong path. Luckily China's president has a more nuanced view of its relations with America: this is what the Chinese President had to say according to Xinhua the official Chinese News Agency: Hu told Bush that it has been China's consistent stance to realize non-nuclearization on the Korean Peninsula and to oppose proliferation of nuclear weapons to safeguard peace and security on the peninsula and in Northeast Asia. "This policy will not change," Hu said. He expressed Beijing's wish to work jointly with Washington to deepen the development of Sino-US constructive partnership. Hu noted that leaders of the two countries have maintained frequent exchange of views and consultations on international and regional issues of common concern. This is conducive to safeguarding peace and stability in Northeast Asia and the world. Bush said the DPRK has embarked on a dangerous road with its nuclear test. But the United States believes there is still room for diplomacy to settle the issue, and it will continue to communicate with China in this regard. This is what China's UN ambassador is saying according to UN News Shortly before the meeting, China's Ambassador Wang Guangya reiterated Beijing's position that the Council's response should be firm, constructive and appropriate, but prudent. "There has to be some punitive actions, but also I think these actions have to be appropriate." I think North Korea's disregard for China over the recent missile tests as well as the Nuclear test, both of which China told NK not to conduct, has made China loose patience. China has been behaving a bit like someone continuing to give a heroin addict their fix in the hope they'll behave, and reform. It just doesn't work. With even China talking about punitive actions it looks like China is about to change tack ... no more help buddy ... you either reform or fall over, we aren't going to be the one's continually having to pick up and pay for the mess you make. Its difficult ... reducing support enough to make the North Koreans see that the writtings on the wall, but not enough to make it collapse ... but even the Chinese have realized its current softly softly approach has been thoroughly snubbed by North Korea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeyconcrete Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 I read on the BBC website that one of China's biggest concerns was the potential influx of refugees from North Korea in the event of a collapse/escalation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matty Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Listening to Radio 4 news this evening, (not available on the web as txt yet), it seems that the so called nuclear blast was either a total failure or fake. The general gist of the story is that may be a nuclear device that has not detonated properly, or possibly more likely that it was quite a large amount of conventional explosive!!!! Bet the US still want to go in guns blazing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
germann Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 I read on the BBC website that one of China's biggest concerns was the potential influx of refugees from North Korea in the event of a collapse/escalation. I find that very difficult to believe. Remember the Berlin Wall? The refugess will head south to Seoul, if handled 'correctly'. China might look at this as an economic opportunity, just like Japan did when Communism 'fell' in China. They could put pressure on the North, grant asylum to their leaders, and then take advantage of the fallout/benefits of Seoul having to absorb the North's integration into a new Korean Republic. Or China could do a deal with the US. Let the Yanks deal with North Korea as they see fit, in return for China dealing with Taiwan in a similar manner. Ooops. Breaking News. North Korea has just conducted another test. This brinkmanship could get messy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Tatlock Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Listening to Radio 4 news this evening, (not available on the web as txt yet), it seems that the so called nuclear blast was either a total failure or fake. Nuclear detonations emit specific signatures so someone will know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinahand Posted October 11, 2006 Author Share Posted October 11, 2006 There's still alot of speculation about what happened ... not surprising really as the North Korean aren't giving out any information ... hence all you can do is speculate. Most governments are saying it was very small, approx 1 KTonne, though the Russians say 10+! Making a minuterized bomb to yield 1 KT is very very difficult, but having a partial nuclear reaction that "fizzles" to 1KT could easily happen if the design was incorrect. Hence the feeling its an error, not a technical break through. Some commentators say its possible it wasn't a nuclear test at all, but explosives, but the mine workings required to make space for even 1000 tonnes of TNT would be very extensive, there's no evidence for this. Plus as Albert says the seismic waves from a nuclear explosive are different from a conventional one ... so IF you knew the geology of the area you'd be able to distinguish between them ... but nobody does ... so you can't. Thought these two articles were pretty good giving the various speculations out there! CNN The Toronto Star Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Tatlock Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Plus as Albert says the seismic waves from a nuclear explosive are different from a conventional one ... so IF you knew the geology of the area you'd be able to distinguish between them ... but nobody does ... so you can't. I was referring to X-Ray and various particle emissions that are unique to nuclear explosions and that can be detected by a variety of technologies - even if the explosion happened to be deep underground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mission Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Yay - we blew up a nuke - let's celebrate! Now then, what did they call that dance? Answers on a postcard please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinkydevil Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Yay - we blew up a nuke - let's celebrate! Now then, what did they call that dance? Answers on a postcard please... Gun against the head, you'd be dancing to mate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mission Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Well there is that I guess. Bullet from government, bullet from angry American or maybe if you're lucky you'll just die from a nuclear blast - nice eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Sausages Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 The bad news? We're all going to melt. The good news? Our eyes will be set on fire first, so we won't be able to see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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