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[BBC News] Are island bond holders jinxed?


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Don't I know it :(

 

 

I've won several times in the last 6 years but only small prizes i.e. £50

I understand that under the rules of chance each Premium Bond has an equal chance of winning in each draw. So I'm still optimistic and

I promise to throw a party if I ever win a big prize!

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This is not news. It's like saying the UK has more lottery millionaires than the island. Of course it does, because 80,000 people live here and 60 million people live there - so the probability of the winning jackpot ticket being located in the UK each week is far higher. Duh!

 

Jersey ranks 118th in the premium bond 'league' this year, yet was 18th last year, and the Isle of Man will be ranked differently next year.

 

It's just a matter of probability over time - which means that there is still hope that even an infinite number of monkeys journalists, given an infinite number of years, might one day type one sensible story.

 

I'd love to meet the person that writes these stories.

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I presume the figures are normalised to the number of bonds held per postal district - however all it does is to demonstrate the mathematical truth that even with equal chance of winning , small groups of holders will show a greater variance in number of wins than larger groups (simple demo - consider case of a simgle manx held bond - most years 0 prizes but one year 100% of manx bonds win!) - as the group gets larger the expected variance in winners/year will decrease.

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