[BBC News] Flu pandemic vaccine considered

[Lurkah]

I had some things to add to this but then I recalled that a friend of mine is an MD that actually works for the UK government in the field of communicable diseases, pandemics and what have you. Now normally it's a bit lame saying "I've got this expert mate who says" but hopefully you'll actually believe I do have this friend and would also understand that's it's not my place to say exactly who he is other than the fact he works on the real coal-face of this issue.

 

I put some questions to him in a back and forth and the nuts and bolts of it is this:

 

No one has any idea what form a virus pandemic will take so there's every chance that vaccinating for something in the H5N1 family wont be useful at all. There's no particular evidence that H5N1 will be more likely than any other virus strain.

 

Key problem is that where voluntary vaccinations are given, the take up rate is around 5-10% of the population. Even among people asked to consider carefully such as the Bernard Matthew's factory staff. This is far far too low to stop the spread of a pandemic even if you DID miraculously hit upon a 100% effective vaccine for the pandemic virus.

 

The take up is complicated by the fact you need at least two rounds of vaccined to convey useful immunity which means multiple recalls for the entire population to health professionals for a shot.

 

I'll just quote the next bit because it's interesting:

 

"But, on a small scale like the Isle of Man; it wouldn’t actually do any harm really. So not a big deal, however from a political viewpoint, it makes it uncomfortable for UK politicians to try to answer the questions ‘why not us’. If they tried to do it without a perceived pandemic at the doorstep, they’d get an uptake at like 10 per cent at most."

 

In terms of the nitty gritty of a real pandemic, the models they're going on equate to around 20-50% of the population showing symptoms with a 0.4 to 2.5% fatality rate. Even the 1918 spanish flu outbreak had a fatality rate of 2 to 5% in the US, and that's obviously with a general population that's less fit and with a lack of modern medical technology. So we're not talking about something that's going to wind up with mountains of dead people burning on street corners.

 

It's my guess that the strange move from the IOM government is essentially based in ignorance and is seen as a bit of a crowd pleaser for something people are worrying about perhaps unnecessarily.

 

If there is some sort of vaccination program, then the people who ought to bother with it would be those in risk groups - just like the current guidelines on Influenza vaccination. The old, immune system compromised, severe asthmatics and so on. And then, only, because it doesn't really hurt. Targetting an actual vaccine at a future pandemic is really throwing darts at a dartboard blindfolded.

[keyboarder]

I agree with Mr Unpronounceable we should vaccinate every body against everything. The we can rule the world as some sort madly xenophobic, couldn't organise a p'up in a brewery, supermen.

 

You can correctly spell unpronounceable, vaccinate and xenophobic (bit of irony in that last one there, lol) yet you are unable to pronounce Parameshwaran Kishore? Have you had a glossectomy?

[WTF]

I agree with Mr Unpronounceable we should vaccinate every body against everything. The we can rule the world as some sort madly xenophobic, couldn't organise a p'up in a brewery, supermen.

 

You can correctly spell unpronounceable, vaccinate and xenophobic (bit of irony in that last one there, lol) yet you are unable to pronounce Parameshwaran Kishore? Have you had a glossectomy?

 

 

i heard the news, i've never heard of waxines and wiruses before??

[sarahc]

Hmm, joking about a foreign accent. That's funny.

[WooWoo]

I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong but Tamiflu is in tablet form and is only taken once the symptoms start?

 

So it would be up to each individual to take the drug (or not).

 

Apologies if my information is not correct