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Woman Robbed In Douglas Alley


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A Liverpool man has been deported from the Island and Banned from returning for five years for stealing a Butty from a shop. Bad day Mr Moyle. :lol:

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Plus an understanding of probability. Just looking at the UK: "Within the 43 forces in England and Wales, the average number of crimes annually per 1,000 head of population is 112.7. In the Isle of Man (based upon a population of 77,000) there are 56.5 crimes annually per 1,000 head of population." That means for every 1000 English or Welsh immigrants we bring to the island, we could also be potentially bringing in an additional 50 crimes per year. The levels are higher for other countries too.

 

That's not probability: "Potentially" isn't a probabilistic argument. Also, your conclusion fails to take into account reoffending rates, and a myriad of other factors (i.e. what proportion of those 112.7 crimes are committed by lots of different people, and what proportion is down to a few habitual criminals - in the case of the latter the odds of getting them in a random selection of potential immigrant go down significantly due to their numbers, and so the chance of getting those extra crimes is less).

Of course it's far more complicated than that - and requires a detailed analysis of many stats which aren't publicly available. But if I'd tried explaining that to ai_droid, his little robot head would be spinning for days. Though I would disagree on one thing, 'potentially' means 'having possibility' so is loosely linked to probability in the sense of the word.

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Of course it's far more complicated than that - and requires a detailed analysis of many stats which aren't publicly available. But if I'd tried explaining that to ai_droid, his little robot head would be spinning for days. Though I would disagree on one thing, 'potentially' means 'having possibility' so is loosely linked to probability in the sense of the word.

 

There's a linguistic link, certainly, but it's largely meaningless in the stricter view of probability.

 

For instance, there's the potential that each and every one of those hypothetical 1,000 immigrants would commit a crime, leading to 1,000 extra crimes, or none could commit a crime, resulting in an overall (if small) down turn in crime per capita. These might seem like arbitrary, extreme examples (and they are), but they're no more arbitrary than the assumption that the 1,000 immigrants contribution to the crime rate would represent a perfect transfer from the U.K. crime statistics to the Island's.

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I understand there is a case listed for tomorrow in Court where the defendant is a foreign woman in her 50's who lives in the same area as the robbery.

Message for Mr Spock

 

eh?

 

Gone

The requested resource

/0306/haveapoint.wav

is no longer available on this server and there is no forwarding address. Please remove all references to this resource. Apache/1.3.39 Ben-SSL/1.57 Server at hunell.securesites.net Port 80

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No matter where you are, Yob culture is a hot topic, BBC1,ITV & C4 all ran programs about it last night and GMTV have it this morning. Regardless of what we say on here lets just hope that this sort of culture stays in th UK.

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Leaving aside the media inclination towards inducing hysteria whenever possible, I'd suggest it's already here to some extent. Although it may not yet be as bad as the UK - and perhaps that itself is arguable

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