Blair Criticizes Brown's Leadership In Scathing Memo

[P.K.]

Why don't you just stop digging? I mean you don't seriously think that Blair would have written "The real problem was not the brilliance of the Tory conference" because that would be funny. Daily Wail stories like this are always peppered with expressions such as "said to be written" and so forth. Said by whom exactly? And the "Blairites" who "confirm" it's authenticity - think any real supporters of that nice Tony Blair would ever give anything to The Wail of all rags?

 

You've just got to be having a laugh!

[Skeddan]

It was the Independent that reported the 'Blairites' confirmed the authenticity of the memo. Are you supposing the Independent fabricated this confirmation? If not, why suppose that the memo was fabricated by the Mail?

 

Why shouldn't some New Labourite have leaked this to the Mail? That's what seems to have happened (Unless the Mail did a break in job or found it in a briefcase on a train). If leaking it, then the Mail might be a good choice - for obvious reasons. 'Blairites' is fairly nebulous - it could easily be supporters of Miliband - who seems to be playing fairly shrewdly. The Dail Mail seem to be pretty supportive of him too.

 

Anyhow, whatever may be behind all this, the notion that the Mail fabricated this, and the Independent then fabricated a story to support its authenticity - if that's what you're suggesting - that really seems to be stretching it.

[P.K.]

I'm stretching it? Do you really believe for one second that Blair would use the word "brilliance" to describe the Tory party conference? I haven't the slightest doubt that mischief is being made behind Gordon (at least Dick Turpin wore a mask) Brown's back to the advantage of probably Miliband and this "alleged" memo is part of it. But keep a sense of perspective in these things. You can be absolutely certain that a great deal of the waffle put up by the Mail on this is bs in it's purest form. Take this load of old "The Mail on Sunday has also learned that Mr Brown may be forced to call off his plan to reshuffle the Cabinet in September, which carries his last hopes of reviving the Government". So The Wail knows that Broon was planning a Cabinet reshuffle in September then - because I doubt if Broon does! Of course, when the non-planned, non-event, never-was-ever-going-to-happen reshuffle doesn't materialise the Wail will say how they foretold it in this article and how it's "proof" that they got it right.

 

I still struggle with the concept that not only do people read rubbish like the Mail but some of them clearly believe what it prints! Sure the Wail dumps copy all over the place to try and boost it's figures (our local gym gets a huge pile every day gratis) but some folks must actually pay for theirs! Hard to fathom...

[Skeddan]

P.K. - the main thing you seem to base a great deal on is the statement : "The real problem was not the brilliance of the Tory conference..."

 

I didn't read it as stating the Tory conference actually was brilliant as you seem to.

 

('The real problem was not the brilliance of the Trojan generals, but the weakness of the Greek leadership" - or - "Troy in our weakness stands, not in her strength").

 

The memo's 'post-mortem' seems to be pretty much along these lines:

 

The real problem was not the brilliance of the Tory conference, but the hubris and vacuity of our own. This meant the Tories, by having something to say on policy, appeared substantial and to represent the future.

[P.K.]

I see what you mean now and you're probably right. However I still think a sense of perspective is needed here. The Daily Rail is an out and out rag somewhere to the right of Genghis Khan. Their usual headlines are screams like "Blair Eats Babies", "The HOC didn't really vote on the Iraq invasion", "Plumetting House Prices Put Thousands of Starving Kids on the Streets", "Cameron for Sainthood" etc etc etc ad nauseum. I wouldn't believe anything they print about Labour and the Lib Dems because you just know it's going to be complete and utter tripe.

 

I can't help thinking describing it as a "newspaper" might give the OFT a case. Anyway, enough time already on the Rail and it's nonsense.

[Skeddan]

I don't know that it is so totally without value. You could argue it follows a long and illustrious tradition of political pamphlets and railing going back to at least Elizabethan times with sniping publications announcing their 'newes', sometimes with rabid invective (like Greene's Groatsworth of Wit). Pravda was hardly independent but it was a newspaper. There may be every reason to dislike it and treat with scepticism, but even propaganda and disinformation can be worth paying attention to - it can be quite revealing sometimes.

 

For example, one might take note that it seems the Mail may be shifting support to Miliband. If so, that in itself is politically significant.

 

A time ago I read a declassified CIA Report about the value of 'Open Source Intelligence'. If one took these principles, then in the UK , the Mail would be one of the sources worth paying attention to - for obvious reasons. Of course that doesn't mean swallowing it whole, but rather making an intelligent evaluation of what might be gleaned from it. It could be interesting if, for example, a leadership handover to Miliband took place in September (something perhaps hinted at between the lines of the cabinet reshuffle story). It's not unheard of for stories like this to be put out to send out signals to give the heads up to the politically astute so they can rally round as and when they should. Then again, it's probably just a bit of shit put out by the Mail to give the impression they are clued in. I guess what I'm saying is maybe treat the Mail as a propaganda rag.

 

Bookmakers have slashed the odds on Miliband, who I see has cancelled a trip to India in September. Anyhow, even if there was anything to pick up from the Mail, I agree, it's still a shit paper.

[Chinahand]

Now its the Daily Mirror reporting the various plots etc going on in NuLabour. It isn't looking good - and perfect August hay for the press with most hacks on holiday - hence a slight pinch of salt, but even so talk about Gordon and a piss up in a bewery.

[Skeddan]

Now its the Daily Mirror reporting the various plots etc going on in NuLabour. It isn't looking good.

In what sense you mean 'It isn't looking good' ? Not good for Brown, NuLabour, anyone against NuLabour....

 

I'm starting to think it might be looking very good and hopeful for NuLabour. It looks to be like a very skillful and extremely well managed media campaign by Miliband's people ('source close to Miliband' as the Mirror says). Blair and NuLabour's success was built on being very savvy at playing the media - for NuLabour it's virtually an essential, and this is something Gordon Brown really falls down on. (NuLabourism is a bit like 'fashionable' interior design fads for lime green and repro rococo - only catchy if heavily hyped, and Chocolate Brown is now so 'out')

 

At this rate I think NuLabour could take everyone by surprise and win a snap election in October.

[Chinahand]

It isn't looking good for Brown or NuLabour. I'd be willing to place a bet that they wouldn't survive a leadership change without an election which they'd likely loose, but I think they are too fractuous to pull themselves together under Brown.

 

Skeddan do you really think they'll mount a coup to topple Brown, have a leadership election and then get a policy direction sorted out sufficient to face the electorate by October? - huh?

 

Brown just hasn't put his authority into the party which is basically aligning itself along an old/new axis. Brown for all his occassional flirting with the old wing is basically a modernizer, but Blair and the Blairites never thought he had it in him to lead the party and are now a major factor in proving themselves right. The result is a fractured party - the majority are probably modernizers, but they are split between Blairites and Brown Loyalists while what would have been a rump old faction is suddenly on a par with the other two factions.

 

Result policy sniping all round and as the Blarites and Loyalists have very similar policy positions they can only campaign on personality which makes the whole thing very catty which definitely turns the electorate off.

 

Tearing themselves a part. The probability of a Tory government within a year and a half - higher and higher.

[Skeddan]

Skeddan do you really think they'll mount a coup to topple Brown, have a leadership election and then get a policy direction sorted out sufficient to face the electorate by October? - huh?

 

Frankly I've no idea whether this will happen or not - but the way things are panning out, quite honestly a 'blitzkrieg' wouldn't surprise me one bit.

 

As noted in 'the memo', the Conservatives have failed to consolidate the loss of support for NuLabour, and could easily lose the negative support they enjoy. Miliband can play the phoenix from the ashes, the wunder kid with vision, energy, and a passion for the 'regeneration' of Britain which with lots of dazzle might inspire hope and belief. With savvy media management of the kind that his people seem to be displaying, NuLabour could well pull it off.

 

I'm getting the feeling there are top notch brains promoting Miliband - very smart - and smells like the backroom boys on the NuLab top floor. A very smart strategy by the top floor would be not to just replace Brown, but to have everything in place to take this on to a general election: the whole package might be ready to go - policy directions, programmes, vision, posters, slogans, media spend, political broadcasts, even choice of tie colour and hair gel.

 

This would present a 'new beginnings' Miliband blitz with a bold regeneration vision and spending programme storming the country rather than just Brown, taking the intiative (which is what people want to see) and catching the Conservatives off guard and sending them scrambling. It would make him seem bold, dynamic, courageous and strong with plans and vision - and not a hand-me-down PM tainted by the failures he'd have by being in office as PM. Once he takes over from Brown, he loses momentum, and no longer represents hope, but is the incumbent who 'isn't working' and comes in for flak. If he steps into Browns shoes without an election, then it will be uphill for the next 2 years. By calling an election it signals a fresh start and confidence - that would also works to his credit - obtaining a fresh mandate and the endorsement of the electorate for his leadership - unlike 'hand-me-down' Brown.

 

'10 Ministers' the Mirror reports. If so, a lot is lined up. There may not even be a leadership challenge, and it could already be a done deal to make this a one horse race. The Conservatives would be caught with pants down, and unprepared for Miliband and what he would be coming out with. The Press are hailing him - they have the media management working, so I wouldn't underestimate their ability. October would be bold - Miliband campaigning (Obama campaigning). A UK electorate would be more pro Obama than McCain for a UK PM. The comparison works in Miliband's favour. A young UK candidate seizing the initiative, and his campaign being seen side by side with US campaigns (perception of UK status already improved).

 

Smart marketing, and some vote winning 'vision' policies and expenditure, and a smart pre-planned campaign. Yes it wouldn't surprise me. Remember it may not be so much a leadership contest and changing the figurehead for NuLab and contesting to win the next election. Miliband winning from being so far down in opinion polls would set NuLab for another big stretch.

 

This may have been in the pipeline since September (memo time). Miliband appearing to pull all this out of the hat in a few weeks would inspire confidence that he can work wonders. As would the 'spontaneous' rallying around him. I think people might love it. The party in the gutter and tearing itself apart magically transformed and unified around the superstar. As a strategy it brings back NuLabour's magic sauce - it's 'wow factor' with fresh bold youthful glossy dazzle and short high impact.

 

Quite frankly I wish NuLabour's corporate-socialist NuFascism would totally self-destruct. I'm just saying from what I'm seeing I wouldn't be surprised if they have the smarts to have thought well ahead and are ready to take this on to a snap election. I think that could be a very very smart way to play it - and it would be a mistake to underestimate them.

 

The backroom 'sell' is that public confidence is the key - projecting Miliband as saviour will boost confidence, which will be the key to getting the economy back on track. Newspapers and media are very sensitive to economic downturns. So are unions. Labour MPs are sensitive about losing their seats.

 

You seem sceptical about the suggestion it might be heading to a October election - what makes you think its not already heading towards that? What do you think the chances would be of NuLab winning if they've got everything lined up? (If not, then as you say, NuLab will probably be out in a year and a half).

[Albert Tatlock]

Milliband is not ready for it yet - he only looks about 10 years old and sounds about 12 years old. Cameron spouts what he thinks everyone wants to hear that day, and Nick Clague hasn't been seen since he became leader.

 

God help us all.