Tin Foil Hat Update

[Skeddan]

Couldn't find if this has been posted before - a good example of how surveillance powers designed for ant-terrorism activity can be used for other purposes

What's starting to come out about Omagh bombing is an example of how surveillance powers designed to combat terrorism aren't much good if not used for that purpose. The surveillance powers 10 yrs ago seemed perfectly adequate - though same can't be said for resources behind these.

[immortalpuppet]

Any links to whats come out about the Omagh? I was there at the time and would be interested in what is said.

 

Edit: never mind, old news. It would be interesting to see if anything was released about the alert states going up and down so fast, this is a combat indicator in itself and caused alot of confusion. We had been told that we had attacks imminent and we assumed the Banbridge one was what we were alerted for but the state didnt come down, when it did it went back up again straight away which ment there was a mix about somewhere.

[La_Dolce_Vita]

Any links to whats come out about the Omagh? I was there at the time and would be interested in what is said.

 

Edit: never mind, old news. It would be interesting to see if anything was released about the alert states going up and down so fast, this is a combat indicator in itself and caused alot of confusion. We had been told that we had attacks imminent and we assumed the Banbridge one was what we were alerted for but the state didnt come down, when it did it went back up again straight away which ment there was a mix about somewhere.

 

You will never get a good idea as to what is really going on and reasons for the measures, until maybe after something has happened.

[Skeddan]

You will never get a good idea as to what is really going on and reasons for the measures, until maybe after something has happened.

Often not even then. But sometimes one can. That all depends on intelligence capability.

 

Omagh and immortalpuppet raise issue about communication of intelligence - if overly opaque it becomes useless for people at the sharp end.

[La_Dolce_Vita]

You will never get a good idea as to what is really going on and reasons for the measures, until maybe after something has happened.

Often not even then. But sometimes one can. That all depends on intelligence capability.

 

Omagh and immortalpuppet raise issue about communication of intelligence - if overly opaque it becomes useless for people at the sharp end.

 

I don't think I quite understand what you mean. Can you please explain a little more?

[immortalpuppet]

It means the secret squirrels knew something was going on and that int was not passed down the line in the form of a clear int report. It could have been that they didnt know enough about what and where but it also begs the very harsh question that was bounded around a few times about if they did know the details was it deliberatly not responded too to cause the start of the end of RIRA (in some peoples view.)

 

The intelligence agencies do a cracking job from what i have seen and been involved with but how much is not logged and what can be used as leverage would depend on the people in charge, and from some of the whispers you hear those people can be ruthless bastards.

[jimbms]

The problem is not the intelligence sector gathering information who often store vast amounts but only put it to use when needed and often unknown, but the fact some faceless moron is allowing amateurs to gather information and decide what type they can gather and for what reason quite often in a very amateur way.

[immortalpuppet]

Indeed

[Lonan3]

Is it not the case that 'information' can be gathered ad infinitum, and that often it only becomes 'intelligence' with hindsight?

[Skeddan]

It means the secret squirrels knew something was going on and that int was not passed down the line in the form of a clear int report. It could have been that they didnt know enough about what and where but it also begs the very harsh question that was bounded around a few times about if they did know the details was it deliberatly not responded too to cause the start of the end of RIRA (in some peoples view.)

 

The intelligence agencies do a cracking job from what i have seen and been involved with but how much is not logged and what can be used as leverage would depend on the people in charge, and from some of the whispers you hear those people can be ruthless bastards.

That those people can be 'ruthless bastards' is a given. There are hard calls to make. Classic WWII problem - should you allow a ship to be torpedoed when have intel that could save it, but doing so would reveal code had been cracked thus jeopardising hundreds of thousands of lives and possibly whole war. 600 men die. Cold hard calculation. Ruthless bastards. That's war.

 

Hard decisions have to be made, often in light of knowledge that is also not public and may never become so. Suppose that NI peace talks were on verge of breakdown, IRA were planning on becoming active again and launching a whole new campaign, and 'troubles' would have gone on for years at cost of tens of thousands more lives. The Omagh atrocity may have put an end to that and brought peace to NI. What gets passed down the line isn't as clear as it might be. 29 People die. Cold hard calculation. Ruthless bastards. That's war.

[La_Dolce_Vita]

It means the secret squirrels knew something was going on and that int was not passed down the line in the form of a clear int report. It could have been that they didnt know enough about what and where but it also begs the very harsh question that was bounded around a few times about if they did know the details was it deliberatly not responded too to cause the start of the end of RIRA (in some peoples view.)

 

I don't quite understand the logic behind the argument though, that is, an argument that makes out the establishment have held back to allow the RIRA to bomb. Who does it favour. Certainly in the case of the RIRA, it is their tactic to use terrorism, in allowing them to use this tactic makes no difference to them. Or have I misunderstood you, and what you mean is that by allowing them to commit acts of terrorism it was a way for the establishment to lock up the members of the RIRA?

 

 

The intelligence agencies do a cracking job from what i have seen and been involved with but how much is not logged and what can be used as leverage would depend on the people in charge, and from some of the whispers you hear those people can be ruthless bastards.

 

I think the statement about the intelligence agencies doing a cracking job, they are nothing more than a tool from government, a tool that functions out of the perceived need to monitor people, largely due to the elites paranoia about these people. Just like the police, they clean the shit up in society that is continually reporoduced as a product of the capitalist system we live in. Most duties that the services undertake I find completely disagreeable. Considering that Al Qaeda are not simply just madheads who have taken religion a bit too far to heart, and that their purpose (although cloaked in opposition between Muslims and West) is partly a product of the West's foreign policy and economic exploitation, the intelligence services are just cleaning up the mess that results from this. Someone has to do it, I must admit.

But I would accept that they do the job well.

 

But the 11th Sept. was a shocking indictment on the American intelligence agencies, as they was enough information on the intentions and motives of the Al Qaeda grouping to get an idea of what was going on. But that information was not coordinated. The difficulties partly lie in the reliance of the American and British intelligence agencies on signals and electronic intelligence with a reduction in human intelligence. And it is human intelligence that would be most effective on collecting information on such a geopgraphically dispersed organisations formed as tiny units.

 

Hard decisions have to be made, often in light of knowledge that is also not public and may never become so. Suppose that NI peace talks were on verge of breakdown, IRA were planning on becoming active again and launching a whole new campaign, and 'troubles' would have gone on for years at cost of tens of thousands more lives. The Omagh atrocity may have put an end to that and brought peace to NI. What gets passed down the line isn't as clear as it might be. 29 People die. Cold hard calculation. Ruthless bastards. That's war.

 

But that would be to make the assumption the improved political situation was not the reason for the end in hostilities, but rather that the intelligence services won the day. Although I do accept what you say in the comparision with WW2, but it was my understanding that the IRA stopped because a solution was found, not in military defeat.

[Skeddan]

But that would be to make the assumption the improved political situation was not the reason for the end in hostilities, but rather that the intelligence services won the day. Although I do accept what you say in the comparision with WW2, but it was my understanding that the IRA stopped because a solution was found, not in military defeat.

I gave this as hypothetical to illustrate a point. The point was that decisions are shaped by factors often kept under wraps, and it is not easy to make judgement calls about rights or wrongs of something if you don't have all the facts - and that sometimes these facts may never come out - even after 40 years.

 

However you could bet that this would be presented as a 'failure of intelligence' rather than ignite situation by any disclosure that int had been deliberately diluted to death, and low effectiveness in stopping this atrocity was sanctioned to secure the path to the peaceful solution. I'm not suggesting this was the case - just don't assume all the cards are face up and you have the full story, especially where stakes are high and flammable, and there are discrepancies, inconsistencies and inexplicables.

 

The Harold Wilson 'Doomsday Document' is an example where people's understanding of events is different from what was going on behind the scenes. So I wouldn't jump to conclusions about how and why the peace agreement came about. There's a fair chance in 30 years time there'll be a bit of re-writing to do. As immortalpuppet notes though, not everything is logged.