manshimajin Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 That wilting wallflower Michel O'Leary predicts only 4 European airlines will be left soon. 4 Survivors His selection makes some broad but in my view overstated sense. But wonder why more budget airlines won't survive in his view - particularly if oil prices stay lower through a recession. I would have thought that it might be an opportunity as well as a threat. Also this assumes that other airlines such as SAS and Aer Lingus take no action to reduce costs. Notice he also did not mention Aeroflot! He is talking about the big boys - wonder what his view is on commuter airlines that are so important for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeddan Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 Also this assumes that other airlines such as SAS and Aer Lingus take no action to reduce costs. Notice he also did not mention Aeroflot!He is talking about the big boys - wonder what his view is on commuter airlines that are so important for us? Exactly. (and add Icelandair, Finnair, Olympic, Croatia Airlines, Atlantic Airways, Jat Airways. etc.etc.) Code-shares, operations agreements, contracted engineering services, branded alliances, and so on - more of the same, but I don't see just 4 European airlines left. Even with open skies it also seems unlikely with state owned flag carriers operating uneconomic but nationally important regional routes. (Any takers for TAROM or Jat?). If anything, the dynamics would suggest alignment driving into two main groups, not four, and probably along Airbus Boeing divisions and shared engineering services and fleet rationalisation. Mergers and acquisitions often don't deliver anticipated benefits, 'synergies' can fail to materialise ultimately costing more. Fleet fragmentation is one of the key factors (n.b. Ansett). If anything I think there will be increasing fragmentation between carriers - with growth of regional shorthaul services using wider spread of smaller aircraft, and away from longhaul and hub services with limited fleet options. The most likely model is split between long and shorthaul fleet operations (BA > BA Connect > Flybe), with consolidations among the 'big boys'. Ryanair's focus is on its Boeing 737 fleet, so his concern is with these big boys - and amongst them I can see it whittling down. Meantime regardless however much one extends the runway, I wouldn't expect Ryanair or any of the other big boys to be operating routes to Ronaldsway, just regional shorthaul services. I couldn't see it would make any sense for Ryanair or others, but then I'm not an multi-millionaire airline mogul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mutley Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 O'Leary was talking about Ryanair flying to the US for €10 although this has been delayed until 2009. "Ladies and Gentlemen welcome to Gen Lucio Blanco International Airport. Transfer coaches into the city are available from outside the terminal. Please remember that you will need your passport when you cross the Mexican border into the US. Thank you for flying Ryanair today from London to New York." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeddan Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 Flying to the US for €10 - one way - with their business model, could do. £60 per suitcase, £25 Credit card charge, £50 check in fee for US clearance, £30 food, drink entertainment cost/profit compared to competitors, £40 in airport 'cashbacks', €10 ticket price. Then pack em in and have high load factors, and use direct sales channel with minimal cost of sale, and keep costs down with rationalised fleet. Could do very well out of it. (then you have the icing - the deals with partners, fares for transfers, currency exchange, a complaints system that won't give refunds, etc.). How much would you pay for the low cost non-premium non-budget airline flight to eastern seaboard US? You can see where the differences in price are made up. Do you know their destination? Florida? Georgia? South Carolina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugger Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 ut wonder why more budget airlines won't survive in his view - particularly if oil prices stay lower through a recession According to the latest Economist, they normally hoard cash during the busy summer months and spend it during the slack season, but the fuel prices this summer were high, and have eased just as they go into their off season, so loads of them have no buffer this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bombay Bad Boy Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 Travelling back from the US, with a heavy suitcase.. Major US airline, cheapest ticket: "Your luggage is overweight, but I'll let it pass" Budget IoM carrier, monopoly on route: "Your luggage is overweight, that'll be £xx (more than the ticket ) " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mutley Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 Do you know their destination? Florida? Georgia? South Carolina? http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/financ...5523316810.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guardone Posted November 9, 2008 Share Posted November 9, 2008 O'Leary was talking about Ryanair flying to the US for €10 although this has been delayed until 2009. "Ladies and Gentlemen welcome to Gen Lucio Blanco International Airport. Transfer coaches into the city are available from outside the terminal. Please remember that you will need your passport when you cross the Mexican border into the US. Thank you for flying Ryanair today from London to New York." Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted November 9, 2008 Share Posted November 9, 2008 "Ladies and Gentlemen welcome to Gen Lucio Blanco International Airport. Transfer coaches into the city are available from outside the terminal. Please remember that you will need your passport when you cross the Mexican border into the US. Thank you for flying Ryanair today from London to New York." That made us laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bombay Bad Boy Posted November 10, 2008 Share Posted November 10, 2008 The future is now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
germann Posted November 10, 2008 Share Posted November 10, 2008 Travelling back from the US, with a heavy suitcase..Major US airline, cheapest ticket: "Your luggage is overweight, but I'll let it pass" Budget IoM carrier, monopoly on route: "Your luggage is overweight, that'll be £xx (more than the ticket ) " Aer Arann; IOM- DUB- 120 quid for excess luggage for 30 min flight. Continental, Air Canada; Dublin-JFK-Toronto-Thunder Bay- Nowt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.