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[BBC News] Manx sea water temperature rises


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It's probably all the steaming, now radioactive, turds we dump in it.

 

One degree in 100 years. Well on an island where the average sunbather currently has to turn blue, then white, pink red and brown - at least tourists will be back in 1000 years.

 

I still take much of this with a pinch of salt, incidentally, the same pinch of salt that is mined from under the med since the med has dryed up and turned to salt about three times in relatively modern times, or the same salt from the English channel, where previously the Rhine flowed from Holland, through London and out into the Bristol channel before the sea level rose, or the same salt that fills the irish sea after the island formed.

 

Humans don't like change, but nfortunately nature does.

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The question is whether global warming will continue to make the Atlantic warmer or whether it will shut down the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (Gulf Stream). Vineyards in the IOM or a long cold walk to Liverpool in wintertime? Southampton University are studying the THC but have not got enough data yet.

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The latest Marine Monitoring Report said 2007 was the warmest since records began in 1904 and warned of possible repercussions for marine life.

Doesn't sound too good.

 

The immediate impact of this as I understand it is that now getting 'red tides' so potentially huge loss to scallop fishing.

 

AFAIK a lot of marine life is quite sensitive to temperatures. Another 1-2 deg could push some to be beyond limits. (while other species might suddenly thrive - such as phytoplankton).

 

Anyone have any idea what are the 'scenarios' of eco-system shift / 'possible repercussions' of further rises in sea temps?

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Anyone have any idea what are the 'scenarios' of eco-system shift / 'possible repercussions' of further rises in sea temps?

 

I guess one of the most important for us is that a rise in temperature could mean a rise in level, which is quite a significant problem for an island.

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Anyone have any idea what are the 'scenarios' of eco-system shift / 'possible repercussions' of further rises in sea temps?

 

I guess one of the most important for us is that a rise in temperature could mean a rise in level, which is quite a significant problem for an island.

The alternative that Southampton University and others are investigating is that the release of fresh water from the ice caps and the Arctic tundra into the North Atlantic will at some time act as a blocking mechanism on the Gulf Stream bringing on a new Ice Age in Northern Europe and global cooling. In some scenarios the ice sheet would reach the UK and Ireland. I suspect that the short term may be rising sea levels but noone really knows what the mid term effect will be as it is all based on hypothesis. At least SU are now monitoring mid Atlantic sea temperatures but have yet to establish any reliable long term trends,

 

Incidentally two years ago a fisherman I know in County Cork told me that colder waters in mid-Atlantic were resulting in smaller wild salmon returning to Irish rivers...

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..its temperature has risen by one degree over 100 years.

 

Pathetic. 100 years and only 1 degree??! We need to speed up the process a lot more than that! It is critical that we get the Manx waters to warm up.. else how are we going to bring back them tourists??

 

Our tourism goals (to re-populate the Island's beaches) should amount to:

1) Warming up the sea by 10 degrees (or more please)

2) Cleaning up the beaches

3) Cleaning up the sea (may need to build a permanent wall around the island.... very very deep wall)

 

But 1 degree... 100 years. Disappointed really.

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1 Degree in 100 years. It seems to me that that would be well within a plausible range of natural temperature fluctuation but, leaving that aside...

 

Does anyone, I wonder have any information which could confirm the accuracy of thermometers 100 years ago and whether these ancient devices have been calibrated against modern thermometers. Also, are the methods used to measure sea temperature (e.g. immersion depth, immersion time, location of measurements), possible effects on water temperature from modern, heated, engine driven survey vessels, etc, compared to 100 years ago?

 

Oceanographic website outlining these potential problems

 

I seem to dimly recall reading somewhere that the way temperature was measure before the middle of the 20th Century was different to the way it is measured nowadays and that invalidates many old temperature records. Can anyone confirm this?

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1 Degree in 100 years. It seems to me that that would be well within a plausible range of natural temperature fluctuation but, leaving that aside...

 

On what background do you define that plausible range? Do you know the difference .01 degree a decade would make vs .1 degree? What's your benchmark?

 

Does anyone, I wonder have any information which could confirm the accuracy of thermometers 100 years ago and whether these ancient devices have been calibrated against modern thermometers. Also, are the methods used to measure sea temperature (e.g. immersion depth, immersion time, location of measurements), possible effects on water temperature from modern, heated, engine driven survey vessels, etc, compared to 100 years ago?

 

Accurate thermometers have been around more than 100 years, they're easy to calibrate after all. The current reports do have include an adjustment for accuracy, particularly in the early years.

 

The people who compile these reports are experts in their fields.

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If you actually look at the report the BBC links to its got quite a nice graphic of the changes

 

post-1364-1226086336_thumb.jpg

 

As with so many such measures of temperatures - things are reasonably stable and then show an increasing trend from the 1980s-1990s.

 

I think it is very difficult to claim that calibration or such things is a significant issue here.

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