oldmanxfella Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Listening to Sunday opinion today, whoever was on reckoned that the isle of man will have a shortfall of £50m did i hear that correct? if its true we are in the shit. The VAT income estimate for 2008/9 in the 'Pink Book' is around £340 million. Knock 2% of that and I make it around a shortfall of £7 million. Its not that simple though. The building industry has ground to a halt here and in the UK and that's the major generator of VAT into the economy. I'd say this and a 2.5% fall in the VAT rate is likely to have a much bigger impact on the £340m taken as the UK / IOM agreement was re-negotiated last year and now links our share to rising GDP which is going to be highly unlikely over the next couple of years. I would say we could easily be screwed by upto £50m given the falling rate, and big falls in demand and turnover in construction. Plus if UK and IOM GDP per head starts falling then after everything else the amounts shared just start getting progressively worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinahand Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Listening to Sunday opinion today, whoever was on reckoned that the isle of man will have a shortfall of £50m did i hear that correct? if its true we are in the shit. The VAT income estimate for 2008/9 in the 'Pink Book' is around £340 million. Knock 2% of that and I make it around a shortfall of £7 million. Erm they are cutting VAT from 17.5% to 15% about a 14% cut. Ie £50 million - looks like the people on Sunday opinion can do maths - and Albert can't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascarino Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Listening to Sunday opinion today, whoever was on reckoned that the isle of man will have a shortfall of £50m did i hear that correct? if its true we are in the shit. The VAT income estimate for 2008/9 in the 'Pink Book' is around £340 million. Knock 2% of that and I make it around a shortfall of £7 million. Its not that simple though. The building industry has ground to a halt here and in the UK and that's the major generator of VAT into the economy. I'd say this and a 2.5% fall in the VAT rate is likely to have a much bigger impact on the £340m taken as the UK / IOM agreement was re-negotiated last year and now links our share to rising GDP which is going to be highly unlikely over the next couple of years. I would say we could easily be screwed by upto £50m given the falling rate, and big falls in demand and turnover in construction. Plus if UK and IOM GDP per head starts falling then after everything else the amounts shared just start getting progressively worse. Albert, A 2.5% reduction from 17.5% to 15% is a cut of 1/7. (14%) 1/7 of £340m is just under £50m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryMcCann Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Listening to Sunday opinion today, whoever was on reckoned that the isle of man will have a shortfall of £50m did i hear that correct? if its true we are in the shit. The VAT income estimate for 2008/9 in the 'Pink Book' is around £340 million. Knock 2% of that and I make it around a shortfall of £7 million. Erm they are cutting VAT from 17.5% to 15% about a 14% cut. Ie £50 million - looks like the people on Sunday opinion can do maths - and Albert can't! You're not the one who has just got the Countdown job are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spermann Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Listening to Sunday opinion today, whoever was on reckoned that the isle of man will have a shortfall of £50m did i hear that correct? if its true we are in the shit. The VAT income estimate for 2008/9 in the 'Pink Book' is around £340 million. Knock 2% of that and I make it around a shortfall of £7 million. Its not that simple though. The building industry has ground to a halt here and in the UK and that's the major generator of VAT into the economy. I'd say this and a 2.5% fall in the VAT rate is likely to have a much bigger impact on the £340m taken as the UK / IOM agreement was re-negotiated last year and now links our share to rising GDP which is going to be highly unlikely over the next couple of years. I would say we could easily be screwed by upto £50m given the falling rate, and big falls in demand and turnover in construction. Plus if UK and IOM GDP per head starts falling then after everything else the amounts shared just start getting progressively worse. new build property developments attract zero VAT, therefore the drop would only impact commercial remedial works. domestic to stay the same at 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slim Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Its not that simple though. The building industry has ground to a halt here and in the UK and that's the major generator of VAT into the economy. I'd say this and a 2.5% fall in the VAT rate is likely to have a much bigger impact on the £340m taken as the UK / IOM agreement was re-negotiated last year and now links our share to rising GDP which is going to be highly unlikely over the next couple of years. Anyone ever seen a breakdown of where the most vat payments come from? Thinking about how this would impact my regular spend, don't spend much on fuel, food is mostly vat exept, I can't see me being that much better off here from a 2.5% cut. Heating and electricery are the biggies vatted I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Tatlock Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Listening to Sunday opinion today, whoever was on reckoned that the isle of man will have a shortfall of £50m did i hear that correct? if its true we are in the shit. The VAT income estimate for 2008/9 in the 'Pink Book' is around £340 million. Knock 2% of that and I make it around a shortfall of £7 million. Erm they are cutting VAT from 17.5% to 15% about a 14% cut. Ie £50 million - looks like the people on Sunday opinion can do maths - and Albert can't! Ah yes, the moral - never attempt maths after having wine with your Sunday lunch /blush mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
molly Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Thought i heard 50mill can i now change my 'phew' back to 'oh shit' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slim Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Thought i heard 50mill can i now change my 'phew' back to 'oh shit' I wonder on the timescales too. The sundays suggest it's going to be instant, but can it be practically? All those retailers and websites going to adjust their vat rates instantly? Certainly this is going to keep accountants funded for a while if so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Tatlock Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 The 2008/9 pink book outlines spending at £553 million and income at £574 million with a 'probable surplus' estimated at £46 million. So I suppose, taking into account: likely changes in spending patterns, what can be done with various projects, what could be taken out of reserves, and of course the likely economic growth figure - makes any actual shortfall difficult to calculate. Overall I can't see it being as bad as a simple straight £50 million drop in income. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slim Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Overall I can't see it being as bad as a simple straight £50 million drop in income. It'll be much worse. Govt revenue is being hammered all around, funds under management on the island will have dropped in the region of 25-30% at least I recon, deposits down so therefore fees are down, receipts from property down, all sorts of other dutys down as people spend less, lowering fuel prices driving tax revenues down, plus there's been some big losses such as the funds wrapped up in ksf, pension shortfalls, etc. I guess there's some savings too, such as lowering interest rates making government debt cheaper, but still, things are pretty grim. And I'm normally the optimistic one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebees Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Hmmm. Empty gesture. I don't see how it will help small businesses, net cost of things is not going to change and VAT is just anyway. The VAT element of a sale/purchase is really only relevant to the govt, a company doesnt make a profit from VAT, it just gets all the hassle of the administration of it. It will reduce the amount of VAT on sales but also on purchases too so no-one wins. The Isle Of Mans current government have no idea what is around the corner but, they are prepared for it....nothing that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
molly Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Hmmm. Empty gesture. I don't see how it will help small businesses, net cost of things is not going to change and VAT is just anyway. The VAT element of a sale/purchase is really only relevant to the govt, a company doesnt make a profit from VAT, it just gets all the hassle of the administration of it. It will reduce the amount of VAT on sales but also on purchases too so no-one wins. The Isle Of Mans current government have no idea what is around the corner but, they are prepared for it....nothing that is. Is the reason for the cut to actually get people spending not to increase small business margins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Tatlock Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Here's the relevant table from the pink book 2008/9: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wideload Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 does this mean they wont be able to afford the new super quarterbridge roundabout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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