Cautious Optimism At Start Of New Year

[Albert Tatlock]

...Thats the story behind the figures, the evolution of modern manufacturing. We dont make Slippers anymore but we do even more Aero engine components/assemblies, actuators, valves, optics and designs !

So not as many production line jobs but more high skill, better paid, better prospect skilled manufacturing jobs are now available - new datum please !

I agree with what you say, Strix being a classic example that used to employ 800 people on the island in the late 90s. However, High Value Products were specifically mentioned and not forgotten, and personally I'm not talking about getting back into manufacturing slippers or the likes.

 

There's still an awful lot more high value products out there we can go after to be manufactured here. There's pharmaceuticals, software development, scientific instruments, medical equipment, and even organised local organic produce etc. etc. High value products also create a number of ancillary/less skilled jobs around them, as not everyone can be a skilled engineer or other expert. It all takes time to build up along with the skill base. But a little thought, a sensible immigration policy, and a little investment when times were good - and a lot could have been achieved over the last 10 years - it just wasn't.

[pongo]

Interesting. Why do you think gaming is any different from, say, investment schemes?

 

I believe that the presence of the offshore gambling industry on the IOM has the potential to negatively affect the reputation of the offshore finance sector. As follows:

 

Almost traditionally, gambling has been associated with organized crime, money laundering etc. Many people would also view gambling it as a dangerous vice - in the same light as, say, strong drink, or the heroin trade. Unlike banking, it is only relatively recently that gambling has even been legal in many jurisdictions.

 

Offshore gambling centers will inevitably struggle to generate favorable international press IMO. The phrase offshore gambling already has a particular resonance in the US where, between the wars, operated the infamous mob run gambling ships. Just outside the US limits. There is already a long history of gambling operating just outside the normal boundaries.

 

My sense would be that encouraging the offshore gambling sector is probably a bad idea if the IOM also wants to develop its reputation as a well regulated and professional finance and business center. The two industries just do not sit well together side by side. The sort of press and attention which the gambling industry will inevitably generate, sooner or later, will not help the island persuade the rest of the world that this is a proper jurisdiction with nothing to hide.

 

I'm not saying that there really is anything wrong with offshore gambling - no more than I believe that there is necessarily anything inherently wrong with offshore finance. For the IOM however, trying to uphold the reputations of both industries, simultaneously, has the potential to be like fighting war on two fronts.

[Albert Tatlock]

To be fair gaming is well regulated over here (Tier 1 jurisdiction and on the UK white list), though I suspect that like offshore finance it is in for creeping additional regulation as time goes by.

 

The people that generally have a problem with it are the yanks. But they have a problem with any number of things, especially down in the bible belt.

[Slim]

That statement is true. However, the point is that size of the finance industry in Jersey is not that big when you look at the number of employees in that sector. But, the rest of the economy is actually quite buoyant. They even have a tourist industry .

 

I am not saying that if the finance industry bubble burst that they would not be in trouble, but it would be a lot less of a problem than here.

 

You're genuinely thick Cambon. Are you allowed to use the cooker on your own?

 

Will you understand a picture? This is not economic diversity:

 

[Slim]

Almost traditionally, gambling has been associated with organized crime, money laundering etc. Many people would also view gambling it as a dangerous vice - in the same light as, say, strong drink, or the heroin trade. Unlike banking, it is only relatively recently that gambling has even been legal in many jurisdictions.

 

The same's true of offshore banking though. I see your point, that we may suffer from a negative image, but I think the movement of gaming into the mainstream in recent years has done a lot to remove the stigma.

 

There's still an awful lot more high value products out there we can go after to be manufactured here. There's pharmaceuticals, software development, scientific instruments, medical equipment, and even organised local organic produce etc. etc. High value products also create a number of ancillary/less skilled jobs around them, as not everyone can be a skilled engineer or other expert. It all takes time to build up along with the skill base. But a little thought, a sensible immigration policy, and a little investment when times were good - and a lot could have been achieved over the last 10 years - it just wasn't.

 

Yeah, but it was. Everything on your list is here already, although Organics hasn't really hit commercially. There's an awful lot of industry here you might not be aware of as it's not particularly high profile.

[Sebrof]

That statement is true. However, the point is that size of the finance industry in Jersey is not that big when you look at the number of employees in that sector. But, the rest of the economy is actually quite buoyant. They even have a tourist industry .

 

I am not saying that if the finance industry bubble burst that they would not be in trouble, but it would be a lot less of a problem than here.

 

You're genuinely thick Cambon. Are you allowed to use the cooker on your own?

 

Say what you think, Slim, don't let outmoded concepts like politeness and good manners hold you back.

 

It would be interesting to see the numbers of people involved in the various Jersey industries. It may be, as Cambon suggests, that a significant number are involved in the non-financial sectors, and these people will (largely) continue to have jobs if finance contracts.

 

We have to remember that the banks and other financial institutions in Jersey (and here) may make a huge contribution to top-line GDP, but most of what they bring in will go straight out again. Not much will remain in Jersey.

 

If it does have more people in non-financial jobs than the IOM, Jersey WILL be in a better position to withstand a recession in the finance industry than we will.

 

Two more points.

 

One is that it is not clear to me that a general recession in the UK (and elsewhere) will neccessarily lead to a recession in offshore banking. People with money still need somewhere to put it.

 

Secondly, I have to side with Albert's overall prognostications about the future of the Manx economy. You, on the other hand, do seem to be one of life's optimists. That's an excellent trait in many ways (especially for an entrepreneur - if that's what you are), but it doesn't make you a good guide to the future.

 

S

[triskelion]

We're all fooked.

Fabulous! When are you leaving?

[Chinahand]

The island needs to attract footloose economic activity which is not affected by high transport or energy prices - or high labour costs either, though there is a risk that the labour costs people have got used to on the Island are just not sustainable in the long term.

 

It's a difficult combination - especially when you add the caveat that with such a small population to service all this it is highly likely that the expertise will be generated elsewhere and not locally. We just don't have the demographic mass to consistently generate good ideas.

 

In many ways its amazing that we've been able to get our per capita GDP higher than the UK's - keeping our legislation flexible and adjustable is really important.

 

The current difficulties with the UK are pretty serious - our politicians over the next few years are going to have to work hard to maintain our advantages over the UK.

 

Comparing the economic record over the last decade or so with the complaints about our politicians its fascinating how well they've done - long may it continue - will Tony Brown et al be up to it, hope so, but he doesn't inspire alot of faith I must admit.

[Lawnmower]

I'm sure it's as easy as you say it is to produce manufacturing companies out of thin air. I mean, look at how well the UK government is doing in this regard....

I didn't say it was easy, and agree it doesn't happen overnight, but with the tax advantages, grants, and other assistance available here, there have been many many wasted opportunities over the past 20 years to relocate/start such companies here. That said, there are also many opportunities during a recession to approach such companies - when companies are looking to downsize, save costs, and when there is a more flexible employment base whilst unemployment rises.

 

Anyone who has ever worked at Smiths (Dowtys) (or even Swagelock or Ronaldsway Aircraft) will know that the Government pump millions into manufacturing each year.

 

As a result, and because of good management at all three companies, they have competed internationally against engineering companies from across the western world, beating UK and USA companies, and have been awarded contracts the envy of the world.

 

Come and have a look at Smiths to see how sophisticated and up to date they are, and how they are able to compete - and win - against the most sophisticated companies in the world.

 

The DTI have a budget of about £15 million pounds, most of which goes into such companies. If you have an idea, and it is a goer, you can get Government money. The big problem at Smiths, (and other firms) is getting local youth to make engineering a career, because of the competition from the financial sector. It is as well paid, and a damn sight more satisfying to be involved in front line advanced technology.

 

To say the Government do not support our manufacturing industry with grants, tax advantages etc, is a load of total bollocks.

[Twitch]

I'm sure it's as easy as you say it is to produce manufacturing companies out of thin air. I mean, look at how well the UK government is doing in this regard....

I didn't say it was easy, and agree it doesn't happen overnight, but with the tax advantages, grants, and other assistance available here, there have been many many wasted opportunities over the past 20 years to relocate/start such companies here. That said, there are also many opportunities during a recession to approach such companies - when companies are looking to downsize, save costs, and when there is a more flexible employment base whilst unemployment rises.

 

Anyone who has ever worked at Smiths (Dowtys) (or even Swagelock or Ronaldsway Aircraft) will know that the Government pump millions into manufacturing each year.

 

As a result, and because of good management at all three companies, they have competed internationally against engineering companies from across the western world, beating UK and USA companies, and have been awarded contracts the envy of the world.

 

Come and have a look at Smiths to see how sophisticated and up to date they are, and how they are able to compete - and win - against the most sophisticated companies in the world.

 

The DTI have a budget of about £15 million pounds, most of which goes into such companies. If you have an idea, and it is a goer, you can get Government money. The big problem at Smiths, (and other firms) is getting local youth to make engineering a career, because of the competition from the financial sector. It is as well paid, and a damn sight more satisfying to be involved in front line advanced technology.

 

To say the Government do not support our manufacturing industry with grants, tax advantages etc, is a load of total bollocks.

 

I know of a quite a few young people who have taken part in the ACE project which is trying to encourage them to go into engineering. Apparently they start learning about it aged 9 or 10 and this is followed up in secondary school. There's a bit on DTI Govt web site here http://www.gov.im/dti/manufacturing/ace_project.xml

[Gladys]

One of the speakers at the Hanogo Hill thingy was talking about the lack of diveristy in our economy citing years gone by where the main industries were tourism, agriculture and fisheries. I wonder how much of the latter two depended on the first? Not so diverse, methinks

[%age]

Aye, a conundrum indeed

[triskelion]

One of the speakers at the Hanogo Hill thingy was talking about the lack of diveristy in our economy citing years gone by where the main industries were tourism, agriculture and fisheries. I wonder how much of the latter two depended on the first? Not so diverse, methinks

In fairness, he spoke about them (and the running trade) in the context of previous industries on which the Island has been dependent, rather than as evidence of a previously diverse economy.

[Cambon]

You're genuinely thick Cambon. Are you allowed to use the cooker on your own?

 

I love the way you turn to insults when you are losing an argument.

 

Like it or not the working population of Jersey is far more diverse than here.

 

For example, when you are in England in any town and you go into a corner shop, how likely are you to find Manx produce? Not very. However, there is a good chance of finding a tin of Jersey Royal potatoes in that same shop.

 

Look at M&S over here. Yes, they sell some Manx produce, and so they should, but they sell Jersey butter, Jersey cheese, Jersey New Potatoes (when in season) and various other Channel Islands items, as they do in most of their food stores. This is because Jersey has worked hard to diversify for decades basically knowing that at some point contingency may be required.

[Chinahand]

Erm Cambon do you have any actual facts on employment statistics to back up your claims - Slims data based on GDP is pretty damming and the simple fact is employment patterns in sectors are generally comparable between the IOM and the Channel Islands - ie if 2 jobs produce 30K of output in agriculture on the IOM it is highly likely that no fewer than 1.8 or no more than 2.2 will produce the same output on the Channel Islands - the ratios would have to be 1 and 3 to make Slim's graph anything like wrong - and I simply don't believe that the Channel Islands are so different for all their potatos and cheese - because these products generate cash as well as employment and so should show up in Slims graph - the fact is they don't.

 

I don't think Slim is loosing the argument at all - I think you are, though I agree Slim is being uncivil, but that is exasperation that you are maintaining your argument in the face of pretty overwhelming evidence against it.