Slim Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Go to a rough part of Liverpool and you can buy for less than 20k, thats what, it is AVERAGE I was talking about. You cited flats in a specific part of Liverpool, that isn't AVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Yep, a blinding move by Gordon Brown. Pass the interest rates to the BOE, who take the blame rather than the government. However, the rate decision is made based on government supplied information and direction. Brilliant!!! You have missed the point and significance of the then new Labour govt giving control of interests rates to the Bank. This was a signal to the capital markets and the City in general. It represented a recognition of the fact that the markets and the forces of global capitalism were more powerful than govt. It was the govt signalling that it would not try to control the economy as had been the case with Conservative and then Labour govts in the 1970s (and the Major govt - eg using interest rates to try to control the value of Sterling). It was a move designed to prevent money leaving the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manshimajin Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Apart from the smaller market with fewer properties but affluent buyers pushing the price up, low unemployment, low tax, no cg so favorable to investors and mortgage tax relief... Slim, judging by the increasing number of £400K plus properties failing to sell for long periods of time here it would appear that even in our 'smaller market' supply is outstripping demand and that there are not many "affluent buyers" purchasing properties at the moment. Given that the latest forecasts are for the UK economy to remain in the doldrums up until 2020 where is the buying demand going to come from? Even a statically priced market with our rate of inflation means a considerable loss in value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugger Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I think we are in for a rough ride. A nice, easy target. Cutting money divvied up with local authorities in the UK has adverse electoral consequences, whereas cutting it to us actually delivers a positive vibe for the Coalition. The only good news about this is that there won't be any money to pay Tony Brown's pension, or the pensions of all those useless bloodsuckers in Tynwald. Shame the rest of us have to go down too though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barrie Stevens Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 A few years? Hardly an exodus. Did anyone say it is an exodus - apart from you? Many move to my part of the Island and leave after some years. When one partner dies the other often moves back to the UK to be close to family, or when old age is on the horizon a move is made to somewhere smaller and warmer. If leaving means no contact with miserable buggers like yourself, weather such as we have this week, crap service and the carbuncle known as Ramsey then yes, I'm glad to leave. Ramsey! Where there are so many boarded up shops the window cleaners use sandpaper (They...are..er ..Irish window cleaners) Well you are the expert on cleaning Barry having held many positions in the industry. Exactly. My expertise is at your disposal PS A lot of chaps working at various forms of cleaning actually make a bigger wage packet than many of those in the Finance Sector....if they are young that is as it is now a young man's game..."where there's muck. There's brass!"...Not for nothing is Strand Cleaners owned and established by a Yorkshireman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medran Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 In the IOM there isn't any reliable house price data. Traditionally (up until about 1995) IOM house prices tracked the north west of England but in the last 15 years they have risen to London levels. I believe this is a very temporary phenomina. I think prices will gravitate to UK averages over the next few years (or return with parity with NW England prices as they did for so long). So let's look at the UK market. There are two ways to value a property: 1/ What it costs to build (this only applies to a property in as-new condition). 2/ What the market will bear. Sellers are focusing upon 2/ at the moment and getting it wrong because they are asking prices that the market will not (and cannot) bear. They should be focusing on 1/. It is misleading to think of “land” values because land is intrinsically worthless – a few hundred pounds at most. one thing we have no shortage of on the Isle of Man is land. Cost to build is the best indicator because if prices drop to/below building costs (as they have done in the past three recessions) nobody builds any more until prices recover. In the UK it costs between £665 and £783 per square meter to build (excluding legal fees) so it is reasonable to assume that costs will not be much higher in the IOM. It is fair to add about 15% to this for legal and other expenses. The average UK/IOM house is 82 square meters so average prices should be £63,000 to £74,000. In the last three recessions “real” ie inflation adjusted UK average prices dropped to £64,000 (1977), £70,000 (1982) and £78,000 (1995). That’s about what you would expect. My analysis is that when average IOM prices fall below £84,000 this time around it will be a good time to buy as they will not fall a lot further. But today the average is £162,000 (down from £206,000 in 2007). You can see where this is going… prices will fall about another 50% (but nobody wants to admit it in the media). Unlike previous property bubbles the present one has been an international phenomenon (with some exceptions such as Germany). I don’t think that prices will fall off a cliff overnight. More likely they will stay “the same” and allow inflation to do the work. In the UK “official” inflation rate is currently 5.1% so if prices simply “stayed the same” for ten years they will have achieved the 50% drop that is needed. I think we’ll see higher inflation and a smaller drop in prices bringing things back to reality in about five years’ time. But… of course… nobody really ever knows for sure what will happen, but it is fun to be a fortune teller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scarbunny Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 In the UK it costs between £665 and £783 per square meter to build (excluding legal fees) so it is reasonable to assume that costs will not be much higher in the IOM. It is fair to add about 15% to this for legal and other expenses. The average UK/IOM house is 82 square meters so average prices should be £63,000 to £74,000. Average build cost to a "Dandara" level of finish with bathroom, kitchen and carpets is around £1000 sq/m on the island, so your figures are a little low but not enough to make much difference on the "average" size property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stugsy Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 They have just announced that the average house price in Guernsey is £424,000. I think the Jersey House prices are a little higher than Guernsey. Why are IOM prices lower? I always thought we (offshore Islands) were all fairly similar. They have been saying for pretty much 70 years that the house prices have to fall soon. But they never have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slim Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Merdan, your post ignores one of the biggest influences on house value: location. Slim, judging by the increasing number of £400K plus properties failing to sell for long periods of time here it would appear that even in our 'smaller market' supply is outstripping demand and that there are not many "affluent buyers" purchasing properties at the moment. I agree, I'm just citing the factors that influence our market vs Liverpool. It's pretty pointless to look at a property on the Liverpool docks and from that judge ours to be overpriced. Given that the latest forecasts are for the UK economy to remain in the doldrums up until 2020 where is the buying demand going to come from? Even a statically priced market with our rate of inflation means a considerable loss in value. Yep, but like I said earlier, we get some benefits from the UK economic issues like low interest rates, but without some of the problems like unemployment. I think we are struggling, but our market is still different enough to not follow the UK average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambon Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 They have just announced that the average house price in Guernsey is £424,000. I think the Jersey House prices are a little higher than Guernsey. Why are IOM prices lower? I always thought we (offshore Islands) were all fairly similar. They have been saying for pretty much 70 years that the house prices have to fall soon. But they never have. Both have more very high end houses, manor houses, etc. Also as land is at a premium that pushes the prices way up. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slim Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 They have just announced that the average house price in Guernsey is £424,000. I think the Jersey House prices are a little higher than Guernsey. Why are IOM prices lower? I always thought we (offshore Islands) were all fairly similar. They have been saying for pretty much 70 years that the house prices have to fall soon. But they never have. Guernsey has a complex housing law that effectively holds a limited number of properties on the open market, and a separate 'local' market for people born on the island. Jersey has residency rules based on income. There's also more demand. To put it bluntly, people prefer to live on Jersey than the IOM. It's sunnier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stugsy Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 They have just announced that the average house price in Guernsey is £424,000. I think the Jersey House prices are a little higher than Guernsey. Why are IOM prices lower? I always thought we (offshore Islands) were all fairly similar. They have been saying for pretty much 70 years that the house prices have to fall soon. But they never have. Both have more very high end houses, manor houses, etc. Also as land is at a premium that pushes the prices way up. . We certainly don't have a lot of space compared to IOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stugsy Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 They have just announced that the average house price in Guernsey is £424,000. I think the Jersey House prices are a little higher than Guernsey. Why are IOM prices lower? I always thought we (offshore Islands) were all fairly similar. They have been saying for pretty much 70 years that the house prices have to fall soon. But they never have. Guernsey has a complex housing law that effectively holds a limited number of properties on the open market, and a separate 'local' market for people born on the island. Jersey has residency rules based on income. There's also more demand. To put it bluntly, people prefer to live on Jersey than the IOM. It's sunnier The housing laws are quite ridiculous. Aside from that, £424,000 for an average house! If I was going to spend/get in debt by that much, I wouldn't be overly happy with an "average" house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manshimajin Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Yep, but like I said earlier, we get some benefits from the UK economic issues like low interest rates, but without some of the problems like unemployment. I think we are struggling, but our market is still different enough to not follow the UK average. Luckily I am not in the market for a mortgage but if we are benefiting from some positive elements from the UK economic issues one UK issue seems to be a combination of harder to access mortgages combined with more realistic LTV ratios and much tougher/realistic valuations than a few years ago. Is that similar for property buyers here? Talking with a Castletown estate agent this morning. He was commenting that prices are coming down not staying flat as IHO sellers are beginning to reach the point where they just want to sell and move on rather than hang out for another 12 months+ for unobtainable prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD4ELI Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Good luck with Barclays! Hopeless and criminal springs to mind where the handling of my savings account is concerned!!! 100% hopeless, impossible to talk to someone there. I have a lot of money to invest, sod-all interest from Braclays. Avoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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