The Irish Republic

[pongo]

Where on earth did cambon make any assumption about you, You really are a paranoid fairy tale fiddler, all he did was to indicate he may have some inside knowledge you or thers do not and he never even mentioned or indicated any link with your misguided belief in the yiddish zombie.

 

Are you eventually going to bring your idiotic baiting to every thread on this forum ?

[Cambon]

 

 

There is more than a possibility that increases every day as the Right start to recover what should never have been taken by socialists.

 

The USSR failed, and if that could happen then the USA could easily fail especially when the hard times come as they are increasingly showing signs of doing.

 

If (when?) the dollar loses its reserve currency status then all bets will be off for the solidarity of the "united" part of The United States.

 

This is closer to the truth about the US.

 

As for Ireland, Their nationalised banks need money. The Irish Government's business plan is good and sound. The Irish economy is recovering, slowly. The Eurocrats are desperate for the Irish to ask for the money. But they have to ask. The Eurocrats cannot force it on the Irish. However, the reason the Eurocrats are desperate for the deal is that they can then IMPOSE some legislation on them. The piece of legislation is that Ireland will have to effectively double it's rate of corporation tax. Doing this will destroy the business plan and push the Irish economy back into recession as many, many businesses will pull out and tens of thousands of jobs will be lost. Catch 22? Or borrow from someone outside the EU? It is a tough call.

[pongo]

^ and ironically - the fact that the markets know that there is going to be some sort of a deal is already easing pressure on the cost of Irish govt borrowing hence further negating the need for that deal. According to this item:

 

Ireland takes hardline stance on corporation tax as bailout talks begin

[spook]

Recession in Ireland might well be what should take place.

 

Recession to push the present unaffordable standard of living from where it presently is to where it should be and so would then be affordable.

 

At least Ireland has a wonderful export potential based on agriculture to help it in the future unlike the UK where the same problem exists regarding the unaffordable standard of living and where things look becoming very unpleasant as reality is imposed by the first decent government since that of (now) Lady Thatcher.

[manshimajin]

As for Ireland, Their nationalised banks need money. The Irish Government's business plan is good and sound. The Irish economy is recovering, slowly. The Eurocrats are desperate for the Irish to ask for the money. But they have to ask. The Eurocrats cannot force it on the Irish. However, the reason the Eurocrats are desperate for the deal is that they can then IMPOSE some legislation on them. The piece of legislation is that Ireland will have to effectively double it's rate of corporation tax. Doing this will destroy the business plan and push the Irish economy back into recession as many, many businesses will pull out and tens of thousands of jobs will be lost. Catch 22? Or borrow from someone outside the EU? It is a tough call.

Cambon I think that you have summarised part of the problems well.

 

With the benefit of hindsight the Irish Government should probably have let Anglo-Irish go bust. It was only a small part of the banking scene but a 'noisy' one. It focused on lending to developers and had a small retail deposit base. What was unclear at the time was what impact that might have had on the whole banking system. Properly managed probably not a lot - Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley did not bring down the UK banking system - not even HBOS and RBS did. But the situation did need managing.

 

On the corpoate tax rates the Germans and French primarily seem to want change on this. One of the issues is that for Ireland to recover the EU says it needs to grow its economy faster than at present. So the Catch 22 for the EU is that if it undermines one of the pillars of the Irish economy it will slow down, possibly dramatically, the Irish growth rate. Pumping money into an economy as loans does not fix that problem.

 

The IRG has said that corporation tax is a red line. The EU want to make sure that Ireland takes money to prevent financially bigger problems in Portugal and Spain. The IRG have room to negotiate on this one:

 

"You want growth in our economy plus a fall in the borrowing rates for Portugal and Spain? Leave the 12.5% rate alone."

[P.K.]

As for Ireland, Their nationalised banks need money. The Irish Government's business plan is good and sound. The Irish economy is recovering, slowly. The Eurocrats are desperate for the Irish to ask for the money. But they have to ask. The Eurocrats cannot force it on the Irish. However, the reason the Eurocrats are desperate for the deal is that they can then IMPOSE some legislation on them.

 

So no different from the IMF then.

 

Rock and a hard place. But having suffered from the "Celtic Tiger" and €squillions of grants I'm more than a little cynical...

[Cambon]

 

"You want growth in our economy plus a fall in the borrowing rates for Portugal and Spain? Leave the 12.5% rate alone."

 

This statement is very important to us on IOM. If europe allow Ireland to "get away" with a 12.5% rate, then we should be able to aswell.

[spook]

 

"You want growth in our economy plus a fall in the borrowing rates for Portugal and Spain? Leave the 12.5% rate alone."

 

This statement is very important to us on IOM. If europe allow Ireland to "get away" with a 12.5% rate, then we should be able to aswell.

 

Why?

 

We're a UK dependency, the UK calls the tune, as it should. The amazing thing is that we have been allowed to be a tax dodgers paradise for as long as we have AND get subsidised by the UK Common Purse agreement.

 

Times will become harder for us all, but for me and others who deplore what have been fiddles and helping others fiddle what emerges will feel a whole lot cleaner.

[Cambon]

We're a UK dependency, the UK calls the tune, as it should.

EU is calling for the end of 0-10, not uk. If EU let Ireland get away with 12.5% they cannot legally impose anything higher on us. Ask Richard Murphy

 

The amazing thing is that we have been allowed to be a tax dodgers paradise for as long as we have AND get subsidised by the UK Common Purse agreement.

Bollocks. What you meant to say is that the uk government has enjoyed knowing exactly how much and where drug dealers and terrorists have been keeping their money over the years. Since the introduction of KYC and other important measures, our nose is cleaner than theirs. They want to shut us down so they can take over the business. Bully boy tactics. The three offshores don't even bring in as much as uk are going to borrow to pay out in foreign aid. each year. They are useless half wits.

 

As for the common purse, the IOM brings in circa £600,000,000 in VAT per year. Most of it is via business conducted by manx companies in the uk, and the uk want it back. However, when it comes to uk companies doing business over here, and the VAT paid to them from here, we can sing for it. Bastards!

 

Times will become harder for us all, but for me and others who deplore what have been fiddles and helping others fiddle what emerges will feel a whole lot cleaner.

No it wont. It is a dog eat dog world. Whatever replaces the financial sector if, or when it goes, will be equally as taboo in some way. Mark my words.

[manshimajin]

Rock and a hard place. But having suffered from the "Celtic Tiger" and €squillions of grants I'm more than a little cynical...[/font]

Clearly it is debateable but probably it is on balance a good thing to get third party intervention.

 

Ireland has already had, and continues to have, a series of very tough budgets to reduce the deficit spending. It is unlikley that the IMF/EU would go any further than this in terms of cost cutting. One issue that maybe can be looked at is that under EU regulations Ireland has 4 years to reduce its deficit. The danger is that putting bakes on too hard in fact slows down economic growth. It MIGHT be better to have a 10 year target that allows some economic growth as well as expenditure control. But Eurocrats no doubt think in terms of the life of parliaments.

 

What the 'intervention' may offer is a chance to do things that the Government has been unable/unwilling to do in terms of tackling the 'cronyism' that has existed between FF and developers, senior bankers and regulators. There has been some action already on the regulatory front but there needs to be much more clarity on the quality of bank assets and the liability of developers to banks.

 

On the 12.5% corporate tax it will be interesting to see how that one plays out. Germany and France will see this as a chance to look after their own self-interests but as mentioned above the danger is that a significant increase in the rate would cut off economic growth in Ireland in one blow which is exactly what is not needed. At present Irish exports in pharmaceuticals, technology and agriculture are actually doing rather well. Killing the first two is not a smart strategy. At least there has just been an announcement about the sale of 10,000 tonnes of potatos to Russia!!!! After a bumper harvest Irish agiculture is in a good exporting position (for once).

 

My other concern is that the 'market' panicked over Greece, calmed down and now panics over Ireland - unless Portugal and Spain do things to increase confidence in their economies the panic will burst out again in February/March next year. And that will/would be much more serious for the EU and the euro.

[P.K.]

On the 12.5% corporate tax it will be interesting to see how that one plays out. Germany and France will see this as a chance to look after their own self-interests but as mentioned above the danger is that a significant increase in the rate would cut off economic growth in Ireland in one blow which is exactly what is not needed.

 

Of course a Corporate Tax rate of just 12.5% is nothing like the shifty little tax-haven rate to be sure to be sure and all and all. But the likes of Mary Coughlan claim it would be a killer blow.

 

So I can't see the EU coming down heavy on FF without dealing with the festering tax sores known as offshores (I was hoping there was a clever joke in there somewhere - but I just couldn't find it!)

[gazza]

it would be a killer blow if they lost 12.5%

[manshimajin]

So I can't see the EU coming down heavy on FF without dealing with the festering tax sores known as offshores (I was hoping there was a clever joke in there somewhere - but I just couldn't find it!)[/font]

it would be a killer blow if they lost 12.5%

Angela Merkel has softened her position on the 12.5% tax rate today, saying that it is a decision for the Irish Government. Sarkozy has said that it is a decision for Ireland but if he was Irish he would increase the rate as it is the lowest in the EU. As they say...watch this space.

[oldmanxfella]

A sorry tale of how the Euro killed a country. The irony? The Euro will now save it.

 

The ironic thing for Ireland is that they originally voted No for joining, and were then bullied by Europe into scrapping through a yes vote. Europe cannot turn them down for a bailout after the way it essentially hijacked the Irish political system to get them in. If that had not happened the country would have gone tits up on its own and money in its make-believe banks would now be worthless.

 

With Greece, Ireland, Portugal and soon possibly Spain all having to be bailed out its hard to see a future for the Euro as cost of the bail outs to taxpayers are going to affect growth in the wealthier Euro nations. They will eventually have to force some of the weaker countries out of the Euro as a preservation measure to keep voters in the stronger countries happy.

[pongo]

The ironic thing for Ireland is that they originally voted No for joining, and were then bullied by Europe into scrapping through a yes vote.

 

Eh ? Ireland held a referendum on the Maastricht Treaty. It was supported by a very significant majority. This led to Ireland ultimately adopting the Euro when it was launched.

 

There was no specific separate vote apart from that. It was the policy of successive govts - govts which had been democratically elected. Ireland was one of the original Euro countries.