Slim Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 There's a whiff of Salford 2.0 from this post, I think. With a heavy dash of Manxman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinahand Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 ... it's Keynes' Bancor that will be the new global currency after they've finished with the dollar, with the RMB thrown into the SDR basket. Yup! We'll see - we are doing better than the 1930s but only just! You reckon? Definitely - world economic activity has been effected, but nothing like in the 1930s. Yes we've still a way to go before its over, but I doubt there will be starving people in the North East of England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Anyone who is interested in global finance and issues around reserve currencies and the gold standard need to understand the Triffin Dilema - a Gold standard will not work as the need to supply currency backed to gold as the world economy grows requires the reserve currency nation to continuously run a capital account surplus - doing this isn't possible - eventually the Balance of Payments has to be restored - choking of supply and breaking the link between the reserve currency and gold. The latest person to really put interesting proposals out concerning this was Zhou Xiaochuan, then governor of the People's Bank of China. Link What he is saying is really interesting on so many levels - it seems to be an attempt by China to map out a new currency era, where the dollar is replaced as the world's reserve currency. Such an event is a massive loss of prestige for the US, and so it needs to be managed carefully - what China is proposing to replace the dollar isn't the Chinese Yuan (RMB), but the IMF's reserve currency the Special Drawing Right. Its a fascinating mix of real politic and liberal constiutionalism. China is binding itself into the international system, but it wants to modify it to its own advantage, breaking the reserve status of the dollar. With a fiat currency reserve status is always a geopolitical thing. And purely and simply a gold standard cannot work in the long term - the reserve currency will always have a tendency to depreciate against the dollar as the world's economy expands - hence Nixon closing the gold window! China is a wonderful counter balance to those who see finance being controlled by a cabal. Trying to get Zhou Xiaochuan to be a mason is really quite a task. I'd love to read some attempts! The trouble is this is really esoteric stuff, but it can and does effect the value of money in your pocket. Hence all the speculations about it. Zhou Xiaochuan is basically flying a kite - his ideas have very little chance of succeeding, but China's control of Special Drawing Rights has increased markedly in the last few years as China has demanded and got more control of the IMF. The world is changing, and we are learning only slowly how to understand the flows of money around the world. That creates very real risks - central bankers don't really know what they are doing and the booms and busts of the last 10 years show that. The challenge is to keep trade and economies moving and stop nations following beggar thy neighbour policies to get out of trouble. We'll see - we are doing better than the 1930s but only just! What really facinates me is the fact that we could quite obviously see this situation occurring many years in advance, and if we could then it would be reasonable to assume that the central bankers could see it decades in advance, whic does make you wonder why are we here?? The situation we now see was obviously foreseen, with the rise of China and the surplus dollar deficit, so why was it allowed to happen, if the US/European bankers are so powerful. There lies two answers; One, is that they are obviously not the kings of international fiannce we once thought (which seems unlikely seeing as they are now playing such a large hand in the rise of the various exchanges in the east) or two, they are complicit in the rise of China to the detriment of the US, and have deliberately engineered this situation to a conclusion that we can at this moment only speculate. Whatever the answer I think we are watching a theatre being played out on the international stage according to a pre-written script, of which we are just the mere onlookers, and unfortunately many may be the casualties, as we watch it all unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 I had hoped it might be a place for a bit more intelligent discussion, but we seem to get the open-minded peeps on one side and the obstinate, Wiki/Google-loving saddo's on the other. Shouldn't have expected anything else really, it's just a reflection of the people who live on this rock, most who work in the anally retentive finance sector. You can usually spot them in their ill-fitting, pin-striped suits and pink shirts walking around town at lunch on their mobile before popping off to the masonic lodges to wank each other off with their special wankshake...sorry handshake. There's a whiff of Salford 2.0 from this post, I think. Thank you for your kind words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ringwraith Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Europe's Web of Debt (as it stood in May 2011) After three rounds of 'bargaining' including bilateral netting, trilateral netting, and then free-trading (in order to manage different maturities), the complexity reduces dramatically - leaving it very evident where the debt really lies. Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Bawden Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 You can't prove something that hasn't happened. So it's not a certainty then? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see we have a massive sovereign debt crisis at the moment, with countries going cap in hand to the IMF (or being financially raped, whichever way you look at it) on a regular basis. Debt levels are so far ahead of GDP that they are unrecoverable. This then leads onto a global banking crisis as every international bank, without exception, has exposure to government bonds/gilts in some way, shape or form. All it takes is one country to default, probably Greece, to then see the dominoes start to fall as one bank after another gets caught up in the writing down of losses, and as they are all so intrinsically interlinked this is unavoidable. You started off well, but then got a bit frothy around the lips towards the end. Yes, there's a debt crisis, yes that's bad, that's what 'crisis' means. Unavoidable failure on the scale you suggest isn't inevitable however. So in summary we have a soverign debt crisis and a global banking crisis leading to an internatioanl monetary crisis. A perfect storm. People can either choose to carry on watching Eastenders and think it won't affect them or they can plan for it. Of course this is just my opinion, people should do their own research and come to their own conclusions. I've done mine. What have you done? Well unless they can come up with some more names for numbers as we're already into the trillions of currency of debt, per country. I suppose they could always keep printing fake money, which I'm sure they will do to keep kicking the can down the road for a little while longer yet, which will then make the 'money' in your pocket worth less and less and less every time they crank up the presses. But in the end, yes, it's a certainty that they can only do that for so long before the debt becomes stratospheric and completely unmanageable. We must beg to differ on whether a crisis is inevitable or not. I've made my provisions so I'm as least exposed as possible to their global ponzi scheme, with no mortgage, credit cards, loans, pension, shares, stocks, digital money in nice 'safe' bank accounts. But this isn't about 'look what I've done', if people want to do nothing and think things will all blow over then that's fine, doesn't affect me does it? quadrillions, trintillions....then there's the often used but not a real figure "Gazillions" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blade Runner Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Came across this interesting set of figures today that really shows the state of the worlds currently biggest economy:- This below states the USA financial position succinctly: U.S. Tax revenue: $2,170,000,000,000 Fed budget: $3,820,000,000,000 New debt: $ 1,650,000,000,000 National debt: $14,271,000,000,000 Recent budget cut: $38,500,000,000 Now just remove 8 zeros and pretend it is a household budget: Annual family income: $21,700 Money the family spent: $38,200 New debt on the credit card: $16,500 Outstanding balance on the credit card: $142,710 Total budget cuts: $385 Am I worried? Nah, they will inflate away the debt as normal and all will be OK in a few years again and another boom will follow as normal, tis the way of the world............................ Just one question for Lxxx, if you have no money in bank accounts, no Credit cards, no Stocks etc etc as you stated, how do you manage to go to seminars/conferences in the UK? I have tried to travel to the UK and within its boundaries with cash in the recent past and it was not possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Came across this interesting set of figures today that really shows the state of the worlds currently biggest economy:- This below states the USA financial position succinctly: U.S. Tax revenue: $2,170,000,000,000 Fed budget: $3,820,000,000,000 New debt: $ 1,650,000,000,000 National debt: $14,271,000,000,000 Recent budget cut: $38,500,000,000 Now just remove 8 zeros and pretend it is a household budget: Annual family income: $21,700 Money the family spent: $38,200 New debt on the credit card: $16,500 Outstanding balance on the credit card: $142,710 Total budget cuts: $385 Am I worried? Nah, they will inflate away the debt as normal and all will be OK in a few years again and another boom will follow as normal, tis the way of the world............................ Just one question for Lxxx, if you have no money in bank accounts, no Credit cards, no Stocks etc etc as you stated, how do you manage to go to seminars/conferences in the UK? I have tried to travel to the UK and within its boundaries with cash in the recent past and it was not possible. I'm flattered you've asked me the same question on two threads, you must be really desperate. I explained myself on the other one, go pop over there. If you think this will just be another 'dip' but then we'll be okay in a few years then of course you are welcome to that view. It's my view they will do QE to infinity and beyond, as Alan Greenspan said recently 'The US can pay all it's debts, as we can just keep printing the money to pay them.' If this is the economic view of what once was the most powerful central banker in the world, then I think we're in trouble. It's my view the BoE will soon embark on another round of quantitive easing too, and if that happens we'll see inflation go through the roof, and subsequently precious metals go higher as the smart money gets out of currency as they know it's losing it's value by the day. But don't listen to me, trust your own judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ringwraith Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 £1.75 trillion deal to save the euro - Telegraph LINK Eurozone rescue plan 'emerging' as IMF and Greece talk - BBC LINK Oh dear - here we go again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ringwraith Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 BBC Speechless As Trader Tells Truth: "Get ready, The Collapse Is Coming...And Goldman Sachs Rules The World" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 BBC Speechless As Trader Tells Truth: "Get ready, The Collapse Is Coming...And Goldman Sachs Rules The World" Much as I agree with the general sentiment behind it this guy is obviously a plant. He's smirking all the way through and mentions to get into dollars and US Treasuries, which is quite obviously a ploy to get people panicking and to get money flowing in that direction, which are about as bad a move as you could wish for. All this 'I dream of a recession' is a load of bullsh*t to get people's backs up. Classic disinformation courtesy of the Brussels Bullshitting Corporation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RC-Drift.com Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 'Meanwhile, evidence emerged that some analysts suggest shows European banks have been transferring large amounts of cash across the Atlantic in a bid to escape an emerging European banking crisis. Wouldn't it be less of a risk transfering it ESE in the other direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 'Meanwhile, evidence emerged that some analysts suggest shows European banks have been transferring large amounts of cash across the Atlantic in a bid to escape an emerging European banking crisis. Wouldn't it be less of a risk transfering it ESE in the other direction? Whilst europe's biggest companies have been transferring their money out of the banks and into the European Central Bank. Only large companies with dodgy pasts like Siemens are allowed to do this though, as they recently transferred 5bn euros over out of the cash they had sitting in French banks. I still stand by my assessment that I was laughed out of here for, which is that this current crisis will make the credit crunch of 2008 look like a walk in the park. I hope I'm wrong but it's time to safeguard your futures in what will be the greatest wealth transfer in history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 .I still stand by my assessment that I was laughed out of here for, which is that this current crisis will make the credit crunch of 2008 look like a walk in the park. But nobody really questioned that or argued with you for suggesting that. That was never the issue. TBH I think pretty much everyone is on board with the doom and gloom now and expecting the worst - they certainly should be by now given that we have all been drip fed the propaganda around this issue and prepared for the worst over the past few weeks. It's probably being talked about even in soap operas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slim Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 But nobody really questioned that or argued with you for suggesting that. That was never the issue. TBH I think pretty much everyone is on board with the doom and gloom now and expecting the worst - they certainly should be by now given that we have all been drip fed the propaganda around this issue and prepared for the worst over the past few weeks. It's probably being talked about even in soap operas. What does that actually mean? There's a big difference between Lxxx's financial armageddon predictions and a period of low growth with a bit of banker fallout. This non-specific 'WE'RE DOOMED' once again is bollocks, there is no certainty, the rough markets show that and if economists can't predict what's going to happen I don't see you can with such certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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