woolley Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Another 11.99th hour drama then kick it down the road again on Tuesday at the cost of more billions to the taxpayer. What's the betting? The Euro supremos are too arrogant to let their crazy project fail. A few days back, I would have agreed 100%. The messages that the Eurogroup are now sending seem to suggest that they have an overriding political agenda that Syriza should not be seen to succeed, and if that means a Greek exit from the euro, they will live with that. Equivalent parties to Syriza , like Podemos in Spain, stand to do well in forthcoming general elections, especially if the electorates perceive that Syriza achieved something worthwhile. The ECB decision of whether to continue pumping money into the Greek banking system will be telling. If they pull the plug, then Greece has few options and the only way to rescue any kind of internal economy might well be to start printing Drachma pretty damn quick. Internationally, good luck to them buying oil with Drachma. Knowing this lot, I still think it's a decent bet that it'll get kicked down the road yet again. Greek banks stay shut all week and limit withdrawals. Capital controls imposed. Referendum on Sunday. Further negotiations after the referendum result is know leading to yet another fudge and billions more down the same drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD4ELI Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Knowing this lot, I still think it's a decent bet that it'll get kicked down the road yet again. Greek banks stay shut all week and limit withdrawals. Capital controls imposed. Referendum on Sunday. Further negotiations after the referendum result is know leading to yet another fudge and billions more down the same drain. Word on the street is that Joe Public will vote in favour of the deal, the government will be forced to accept the conditions and at the same time will probably resign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Yep, that's one scenario. There are a couple of others. The only way this is the end is if the Greeks vote to refuse the conditions. Otherwise, the whole charade will go on and on in the face of the inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Addie Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 But don't forget how wrong the pollsters judged the general election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 But don't forget how wrong the pollsters judged the general election. As far as the vote itself is concerned? Well I guess if you have any funds held in Greek banks you will vote to accept whatever conditions otherwise you are likely to take a 50% haircut on conversion to a new Drachma. If you are on the bones skint you will vote to tell Europe to take a hike on the basis that you have nothing to lose and you can't take any more pain (and there is an awful lot of pain). Between those positions there will be many for whom the judgement is a more finely balanced one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spook Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 It strikes me that it's not so much what people have in their bank accounts, it's the changes that they must accept in their daily lives. Reduction of the public sector, sanity introduced into pension payments, changes in employment legislation, and much much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 It strikes me that it's not so much what people have in their bank accounts, it's the changes that they must accept in their daily lives. Reduction of the public sector, sanity introduced into pension payments, changes in employment legislation, and much much more. If you had your life savings in the bank in euros that would be your main focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarne Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 I found this on Reddit, but I thought it was the best way of explaining Greece's problem in terms anyone can understand Imagine I tell you I'm about to get a great new job, and if you loan me some money, I'll totally be able to pay you back and then some. It's looks like a pretty sweet job, so you say why not. I start living large, nice house, fancy cars, so that job must be working out. I am making my payments, with interest, but I am also asking for more loans. I show you spreadsheets that prove how the money is flowing in, and since I am offering to pay interest, you keep giving me loans. Fast forward several years. I've kept on living large, but I now owe you a lot of money, more than you think I can pay back. On paper, it is a good investment because of the interest, but you are starting to get suspicious. You snoop around, and find out I completely lied to get the job, wasn't doing very well at it, and those spreadsheets I showed you were completely made up. I am a total fraud, living a lie so you would loan me the money that supported my opulent lifestyle. So what do you do? You could cut me off. I'd lose my house and car, probably my job, and you would be out a lot of money. Or you could keep loaning me some money, on the condition I cut back, get my act together and get into a position where I can pay you back. You might even forgive part of the debt in the hope of seeing at least some of it. The problem is, I really like my house and car, and don't want to move into an apartment and ride the bus. Every time you try to get me to cut back, I drag my feet, throw tantrums, call you a bully, come up with wild, unworkable alternatives, completely forgetting I'm one who lied and racked up huge debts I couldn't pay back. Each month, when the bills come due, I threaten to just not pay anyone and become homeless if you don't do things my way. You are pretty fed up with me, and figure things will end badly no matter what, so why throw good money after bad? That is pretty much where Greece and the EU stand today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amadeus Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Coming to you live (sort of) from Syntagma Square in the center of Athens, where a lot of people are angry about something. You know shit is serious when they send Evan Davis in: Protestors on the square: Never-ending stream of people coming from the Metro and towards the square, which is basically the center of town. Public transport is free today: Interesting times here for sure, and some proper fruitcake politicians. That prime minister nut makes Tony Brown look competent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarne Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Ooh, groovy, thanks Amadeus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Tatlock Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Role models for the Manx CS and PS management. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilligaf Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Role models for the Manx CS and PS management. That's not like you....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 I found this on Reddit, but I thought it was the best way of explaining Greece's problem in terms anyone can understand Imagine I tell you I'm about to get a great new job, and if you loan me some money, I'll totally be able to pay you back and then some. It's looks like a pretty sweet job, so you say why not. I start living large, nice house, fancy cars, so that job must be working out. I am making my payments, with interest, but I am also asking for more loans. I show you spreadsheets that prove how the money is flowing in, and since I am offering to pay interest, you keep giving me loans. Etc....................... That is pretty much where Greece and the EU stand today. I think I have some customers like this. The difference with Greece is that I don't think there was ever much in the story. Euro architects believed it because they wanted to believe it and they still do, no matter how much it costs. Europe only sees a one way street. No turning back. If Greece does fall out - and I'll believe it when it happens - it will be a salutary lesson for the EU and the ECB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD4ELI Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 I've never quite understood how on earth they thought this EU guff would work in the first place. The Germans have a strong work ethic as do many of the northern european countries (Britain excepted) but the further south one goes the more this work ethic diminishes. And Turkey? Pfft. Apart from the stupid Greeks with a history of being stupid, the EU and Eurozone is working very nicely. To put this current debacle into context, the UK could take over Greece's debt and make the payments - it would be a struggle, there would initially be cutbacks but the UK could do it and take this in her stride. I get the feeling that this is the last time the Greeks will act like Greeks - if the country goes tits-up financially the EU will move in and sort the mess out. The younger generation I've been listening to on radio 4 aren't as stupid as the older Greeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballaughbiker Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 I've never quite understood how on earth they thought this EU guff would work in the first place. The Germans have a strong work ethic as do many of the northern european countries (Britain excepted) but the further south one goes the more this work ethic diminishes. Broadly/generally true and can even be demonstrated throughout a single country called Italy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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