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Election Prediction


What will the result be?  

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Given all the spurious stastics being bandied about (often by people who should know better) here's another:

 

Extrapolating my own voting habits to the entire elctorate, I predict a parliament in which only the Labour Party wins any seats.

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Out of interest, what were these percentages like (being a youthie).

 

Not got the thatcher years to hand, but the following covers conservative office:

 

http://www.tutor2u.net/economics/content/t...tional_debt.htm

 

Watching the beeb from the Isle of Man, I must admit the US election coverage seemed more prominent and intrusive of our normal news than the UK one. I suppose they're trying not to tread on toes?

 

Yeah, that was my thoughts too, but I guess the mud slinging of the US election is just more news and hypeworthy. My thought was the beeb was trying to be impartial. Mrstrellis is right though, there's been loads in the national press, just didn't think there'd been that much on the news. I must have slept though it.

 

I enjoyed the paxman interviews, he rocks.

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I have been contacted by 5 different parties, Labour, Lib Dems, Conservative, The Green Party and the BNP. The BNP visit was a particular highlight (shortly followed by a kitchen window having a brick thrown through it in a neighbouring block...funny that!). This election has been everywhere, I buy the Independent and every day there has been at least 12-13 pages of the election along with articles dotted about in the rest of the paper, the local radio has been talking about it constantly, posters everywhere and several "question time" style meetings. I'm in a marginal constituency though, which probably explains the way it's become so big but this is certainly more prominent in the media and general life than the last election.

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I saw them cross the finishing line and then went and stacked a few. Very bad news for the Conservatives as their share of the vote doesn't seem to have moved. So it's more Labour has lost seats rather than the main opposition have won them. The Lib Dems have done well with disaffected Labour voters - exactly as predicted. Most of the Labour lot know it as well. A lot of those getting back in were already talking about a fourth term. Of course, what they don't say is "after we have ditched Blair and he takes all the Iraq War baggage with him" but that seems to be the subtext. Blair looked really weary when his constituency declared so he will probably be glad to go.

 

A majority of around 60 may still look like a "do what you want to do" mandate but it's not all bad news for democracy. One enormous advantage a Labour government has over a Conservative one is the way they don't just blindly follow the party line. There have been revolts over issues like top-up fees and the "awkward squad" are still around in numbers. So we should be set for an interesting four years or so.

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The one thing that comes out of this debacle is that despite nearly 7 people out of 10 not wanting Bleah and NuLabour, still they get to govern the country.

 

I don’t like PR but unless there is a simple two party system the first past the post system to elect our government should be changed to allow the government of our country by the party that is the choice of the majority of the population. with multiple parties and the first past the post system we have the worst of all worlds.

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Very bad news for the Conservatives as their share of the vote doesn't seem to have moved.

 

Apart from the 3.3% swing and the 30 gained seats?

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