Election Prediction

[P.K.]

Correct. Because I think they're right that without Blair they could make a fourth term. I mean, if even a war can't get the Tories in would you care to suggest what might?

 

From our ward:

 

Labour 49.8% ( down 7.9%)

Tory 21.4% ( down 6.2%)

Lib Dem 18.6% ( up 7.4%)

 

And that, as they say, is the problem.

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[Speckled Frost]

mean, if even a war can't get the Tories in would you care to suggest what might?

 

Perhaps a war they themselves didn't back?

[Dave the Cardboard Box]

Not the glorious dawn of 1997 - not by a long way. It's all tainted now.

 

And rather sad that the Portillo moment was replaced with the Twigg moment.

 

We need Gordon Brown combining with David Blunkett now, to lead the way forward and between them they can keep one eye on the future.

[MrsTrellisfromNorthWales]

Very bad news for the Conservatives as their share of the vote doesn't seem to have moved.

 

Apart from the 3.3% swing and the 30 gained seats?

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PK's right. The share of the vote under Howard is the same as for Hague. About 33 per cent. If the Tories take heart from this election, they're fools.

 

The "swing" and the extra seats are simply down to tricks of arithmetic, because Labour's share of the vote dropped while the Tories stayed static for the third general election in a row. The Tories didn't pick up Labour's vote, as they would have been expected to when it was simpler two-party politics. In popular vote terms, they're where they were in 1997 and 2001.

 

Bizarrely, Blair's share of the vote is likely to be lower than Neil Kinnock's in 1992 - the election John Major won and Mr Kinnock lost.

 

Yet Labour will still be in power with a healthy majority, even though about 64 per cent of people voted against it.

 

That's simply down to an electoral system that actively acts against reflecting the democratic wishes of the voters.

 

People say proportional representation would cause problems with politicians having to do deals. I don't really see why that's such a terrible thing.

 

They say that under PR we'd have fudge and compromise.

 

But come on. How can an electoral system that gives a party with a 36 per cent of the vote a healthy majority be better than that?

 

And when you consider that 40 per cent of the electorate stayed at home, we're looking at a party in power with the active backing of about 22 per cent of the population.

 

Democracy? Not really.

[P.K.]

People say proportional representation would cause problems with politicians having to do deals. I don't really see why that's such a terrible thing.

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Of course it's a terrible thing. For a start I doubt if we would ever have gone to war in Iraq....

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[MrsTrellisfromNorthWales]

I did Mr Blair a disservice in my previous post. His share of the vote is higher than Kinnock's was in 1992. Roughly 1.6 per cent higher.

[Speckled Frost]

But it's not really an anomalie as the votes are shared around more because we now have three-party politics in the UK - that's what some portly ginger bloke from up north told me the other day anyway.

[Rog]

But it's not really an anomalie as the votes are shared around more because we now have three-party politics in the UK - that's what some portly ginger bloke from up north told me the other day anyway.

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As the UK comes ever closer to a three party system so the iniquity of the simple majority at constituency and at government level becomes more undemocratic.

 

Take now where almost seven out of ten people did NOT support Bleah and NuLabour. How are the majority now represented?

 

I don’t like PR and especially where closed party lists are involved as apart from anything else PR can allow minority parties to box way above their weight but even that cost may be a price worth paying to get away from a process that is now plainly wrong.

 

By the same token with a few more votes the Conservative Party could have been elected with a corresponding majority of voters not wanting them. The assumption that the majority should get elected falls totally once a two party system is lost.

[Speckled Frost]

The problem is clear.

 

You can have 10 per cent swings in safe labour seats which can be huge numbers of voters turning to other partties but ultimately it makes no impact on the seat gains and losses.

 

FPTP is simple and straight forward but it means far too many votes are just wasted which leads to voter apathy.

 

We need a PR system and there is manoeuvre to tinker with it to ensure the likes of the BNP don't get too much of a say.

[When Skies Are Grey]

some portly ginger bloke from up north .

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Charles Kennedy!!

[Rog]

We need a PR system and there is manoeuvre to tinker with it to ensure the likes of the BNP don't get too much of a say.

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Hopefully just the oppopsite would be true, and the people who DO support the BNP, or at least much of what it promotes, would actually get a word in..

 

It's time there was a 'British' voice in the British parliment.

[Speckled Frost]

A British voice is fine but not these lunatics.

 

This is the party who would make it compulsory for every household to own an assault rifle to shoot anyway who approaches their home who they don't like the look of.

[P.K.]

Liz has summoned Tony to the palace. As it's his birthday she probably has a joke willy novelty birthday card and a new red tie as a prezzy for him.

 

How nice.

[Rog]

A British voice is fine but not these lunatics.

 

This is the party who would make it compulsory for every household to own an assault rifle to shoot anyway who approaches their home who they don't like the look of.

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It works OK in Switzerland.

 

The trouble with them is that in spite of making real progress over the last few years they still attract a lunatic fringe and they still have a way to go.

[MrsTrellisfromNorthWales]

Does the BNP still advocate walling off parts of the big cities to keep different ethnic groups in their own little areas (a bit like what happens in Belfast and Derry)?

 

Nick Griffin was espousing such a policy on Newsnight a couple of years ago. That sounds pretty "lunatic fringe" to me - and he's the leader.

 

On my small street (actually it's an avenue) there's a Sikh family in the corner shop, a Jewish lady next door, a Muslim family next to her, me, a Jewish mother and daughter, a white family (presumably Anglo-Saxon CofE, don't know them. They're the ones the police seem to keep visiting. This is all 100% true) next to them.

 

On the other side, there's a white family, white family (although mother is foreign-accented European, don't know from whereabouts she hails), Jewish couple, Greek Cypriot.

 

How many walls will my street need under a BNP government?

 

It would be a shame to have them, incidentally, because we get on well most of the time.