pongo Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Newsnight's economics editor writing in The Guardian: the west’s model is broken. It cannot deliver enough high-value work for its highly educated workforce ... wages don't rise; you can't get on the property ladder. Fiscal austerity eats into your disposable income. You are locked out of your firm's pension scheme; you will wait until your late 60s for retirement. And if it all goes wrong, it's touch and go whether the welfare safety net will still be there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD4ELI Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 "the realisation has dawned on the graduate without a future: you have to make the future yourself" That's the future, not expecting jobs in large companies. I'm glad I graduated in 1979 and am not graduating now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hboy Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Newsnight's economics editor writing in The Guardian: the west's model is broken. It cannot deliver enough high-value work for its highly educated workforce ... wages don't rise; you can't get on the property ladder. Fiscal austerity eats into your disposable income. You are locked out of your firm's pension scheme; you will wait until your late 60s for retirement. And if it all goes wrong, it's touch and go whether the welfare safety net will still be there I'm glad my mortgage will be paid off by next christmas. Time to buy a Landcruiser and a pump action shot gun and head for the hills to live in your shack. Consumerism ate itself and I'd agree the business model is well and truly broken. The current retiring generation had it all - 60s sex and liberation, 70s asset acquisitions, 80s property bubble, 90s equity bubble to top the pension fund up, and even though nothing of significance has happened since 2008 they have held on to their assets and their cash nicely. The under 30 generation are completely screwed with nothing to look forward to as grants and education are being cut back and the job market is shit plus current working parents are losing their child benefit - yet the Guardian reports that 800,000 retired British expats in Spain still claim the winter fuel allowance. The European free rides are over but it wont affect civil servants or anyone over 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Newsnight's economics editor writing in The Guardian: the west's model is broken. It cannot deliver enough high-value work for its highly educated workforce ... wages don't rise; you can't get on the property ladder. Fiscal austerity eats into your disposable income. You are locked out of your firm's pension scheme; you will wait until your late 60s for retirement. And if it all goes wrong, it's touch and go whether the welfare safety net will still be there I'm glad my mortgage will be paid off by next christmas. Time to buy a Landcruiser and a pump action shot gun and head for the hills to live in your shack. Consumerism ate itself and I'd agree the business model is well and truly broken. The current retiring generation had it all - 60s sex and liberation, 70s asset acquisitions, 80s property bubble, 90s equity bubble to top the pension fund up, and even though nothing of significance has happened since 2008 they have held on to their assets and their cash nicely. The under 30 generation are completely screwed with nothing to look forward to as grants and education are being cut back and the job market is shit plus current working parents are losing their child benefit - yet the Guardian reports that 800,000 retired British expats in Spain still claim the winter fuel allowance. The European free rides are over but it wont affect civil servants or anyone over 60. The system is busted. It's reached it's natural conclusion. We need a natural reset and a new paradigm, and the new paradigm will not be nice for the people who had a lot invested in the old one i.e. the middle class. I say bring it on for the sake of our future, and our childen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 The system is busted. It's reached it's natural conclusion. We need a natural reset and a new paradigm, and the new paradigm will not be nice for the people who had a lot invested in the old one i.e. the middle class. I say bring it on for the sake of our future, and our childen. Don't think it will be particularly nice for anyone. We are running away from the fact that we in the whole western world have lived beyond our means for at least 30 years. What's more, we are still running and pretending that the current situation is a blip and all will be well when we return to "growth". What then is the "new paradigm"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 The system is busted. It's reached it's natural conclusion. We need a natural reset and a new paradigm, and the new paradigm will not be nice for the people who had a lot invested in the old one i.e. the middle class. I say bring it on for the sake of our future, and our childen. Don't think it will be particularly nice for anyone. We are running away from the fact that we in the whole western world have lived beyond our means for at least 30 years. What's more, we are still running and pretending that the current situation is a blip and all will be well when we return to "growth". What then is the "new paradigm"? I don't think anyone knows yet, it'll evolve. But for the people who had a lot invested in the shallow materialism of the current one it may be a large culture shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambon Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It is already evolving. There will be some inflation. The graduating generation are going to find out that they will have to work for a living rather than sit behind a desk. People will soon realise it is now pointless going to university, some already have. The best options are apprenticeships and youth training schemes to get you a proper job/ career/ future. Banking and finance are about to radically reform. However, that will take years. For now, the can will continue to be kicked down the road. People will continue to pay down their debts, banks will continue consolidating and writing off losses and there will be a slight recovery. In 18 months time the banks will have taken off and some form of normality will have returned - but that will only last until after the general election....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It is already evolving. There will be some inflation. The graduating generation are going to find out that they will have to work for a living rather than sit behind a desk. People will soon realise it is now pointless going to university, some already have. The best options are apprenticeships and youth training schemes to get you a proper job/ career/ future. Banking and finance are about to radically reform. However, that will take years. For now, the can will continue to be kicked down the road. People will continue to pay down their debts, banks will continue consolidating and writing off losses and there will be a slight recovery. In 18 months time the banks will have taken off and some form of normality will have returned - but that will only last until after the general election....... Good points, however in my opinion the fall will be a lot bigger and a lot more severe than many realise. The financial system has a lot further to disintegrate before it hits the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slim Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It is already evolving. There will be some inflation. The graduating generation are going to find out that they will have to work for a living rather than sit behind a desk. People will soon realise it is now pointless going to university, some already have. The best options are apprenticeships and youth training schemes to get you a proper job/ career/ future. Banking and finance are about to radically reform. However, that will take years. For now, the can will continue to be kicked down the road. People will continue to pay down their debts, banks will continue consolidating and writing off losses and there will be a slight recovery. In 18 months time the banks will have taken off and some form of normality will have returned - but that will only last until after the general election....... Yes, exactly. It isn't the end of capitalism, it is a period of change and re-adjustment. I disagree that it's pointless going to university, university isn't and shouldn't just be about employment prospects and for many professions it's still vital. It's not automatically the best option for the majority of people though. Some of our newer industries are having a hard time monetising and some of our old ones are struggling to cope with the fall in demand, but that'll resolve itself naturally with a bit of pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Tatlock Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I'd agree with that Slim. It's not over, it's different. To me, it's similar to how the end of the benefits of the early industrial revolution affected the UK last century, as other nations got hold of the technologies and methods of working, only this time it's computerisation that has now spread across the world, and people in other countries realise they can do these 'services' and understand computers for themselves. But more than that, many emerging nations have natural resources and/or manufacturing too - which Europe generally does not have in such abundance. What the West has is debt, from greed and artificially inflating its' own asset prices (property) whilst controlling the development and build to maintain high prices to feed the bubble to a bunch of dodgy greed fuelled finance packages it mis-sold around the world. Most of Europe, with the exception of Germany, have similar problems to the UK. Spain has been a problem for decades (at least since the 1980's), even through the good times - what was the last thing you ever bought from Spain other than maybe a Tesco paella? Italy, Greece, Ireland - very similar - few ideas men, few products. However, there is a bouyant skills based economy still, you just have to have the right skills. It's back to the fields for those people that don't keep up or gain a useful skill - and there are lots of them in the UK - millions upon millions of them in fact. So get skilled up, and get your kids skilled up - in things tangible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD4ELI Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Oh Albert, Spain is one of the world's largest foodstuff exporters, is also a major exporter of chemicals and vehicles. Italy produces a lot of fine engineering products, there's a big difference between the north and south of Italy. Greece & Ireland I agree about, although there's a lot of IT still coming from Ireland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambon Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Ireland produces a lot of crops / foodstuffs. It is only the housing bubble debt which is the problem. IF that had never happened they would be in surplus. THeir economy is quite strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 Italy, Greece, Ireland - very similar - few ideas men, few products. Italy has fantastic design, fashion, food, style, culture and family. All of the stuff which matters. They'll be fine. Even if the banks collapse completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD4ELI Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 And the Spanish have a brilliant football team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evil Goblin Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 From Smurf's blog: www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2012/07/02/banking-2012-the-crisis-we-have-to-address-and-how/ Any bets on how much of this will happen? In light of the current scandals over Derivatives Sales, LIBOR manipulation, etc. how is it that our FSC can regard Barclays, etc. as "fit and proper" people to hold a banking licence here. Or are the rules different for the big boys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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