No Future

[Capt W E Johns]

Albert, you're such an old tease

 

To me, Ireland & Iceland have both bitten the bullet & just got on with things

 

They'll be out of real trouble a lot sooner than those southern Europeans wringing their hands

[Lxxx]

Yes. And none of them are in the crapper. Perhaps it was just a dream I had.

 

I reiterate, I am not going on about what they do do, it's what upwards of 20% of the population don't do.

 

I'm not sure the hair splitting really matters, they're all in the crapper just to varying degrees. These economies will recover, particularly as the US recovers and starts buying from them again. Much as the doomies would love a global collapse and a return to the stone age so they can be smug for a short while before they die of pneumonia, it's just never going to get that bad. Challenging yes, casualties yes, end of capitalism? No.

 

The US isn't going to be recovering anytime soon. The dollar is slowly being squeezed out as the worlds reserve currency, and when that happens you're going to see the worlds leading economy quickly go down the swanny.

[Slim]

The US isn't going to be recovering anytime soon. The dollar is slowly being squeezed out as the worlds reserve currency, and when that happens you're going to see the worlds leading economy quickly go down the swanny.

 

Yes dear, we're all doomed, I know.

[Albert Tatlock]

I think you're being a bit too negative there tbh fella. We got to the edge of the precipice and didn't go over, and have actually been backing further away ever since. The markets will not vote for complete self annihilation. Major lessons were learned in the 1930's. Plus, things are infinitely more complex than just stocks and shares these days.

[HeliX]

I think you're being a bit too negative there tbh fella. We got to the edge of the precipice and didn't go over, and have actually been backing further away ever since. The markets will not vote for complete self annihilation. Major lessons were learned in the 1930's. Plus, things are infinitely more complex than just stocks and shares these days.

 

Yeah but then the radiation is going to set fire to all the money and you'll die

[Albert Tatlock]

I think you're being a bit too negative there tbh fella. We got to the edge of the precipice and didn't go over, and have actually been backing further away ever since. The markets will not vote for complete self annihilation. Major lessons were learned in the 1930's. Plus, things are infinitely more complex than just stocks and shares these days.

 

Yeah but then the radiation is going to set fire to all the money and you'll die

Yeah - forgot about the radiation. I wonder how long we have until Godzilla and Radon start eating us all?

[manshimajin]

Ya can't beat a good wind up though now and again

 

It is good to remember from time to time that whilst we are indoctrinated into thinking Germany is somehow the 'leading nation' - in terms of exports or GDP on a per capita basis it is not.

 

On the unemployment front it looks as if the Manx model is coming out just about the best in Europe with high GDP; low unemployment and the capacity to still take on immigrant labour.

[Albert Tatlock]

Ya can't beat a good wind up though now and again

 

It is good to remember from time to time that whilst we are indoctrinated into thinking Germany is somehow the 'leading nation' - in terms of exports or GDP on a per capita basis it is not.

 

On the unemployment front it looks as if the Manx model is coming out just about the best in Europe with high GDP; low unemployment and the capacity to still take on immigrant labour.

Depends if you live life by stats and believe all you're told?

 

How would we be if the CS/PS was reduced by 25% though? How many jobs are not real here, and have been built on the back of previous VAT income? How many people in local firms are reliant on that?

 

How will things be with such a reduced income in 5 years time? How much do we have in the bank now, and how much is it projected to be in 5/10 years given the spending/loan/pennsion committments we currently have?

 

On which path are we really heading?

 

'Now' is but a momentary transit in time.

[GD4ELI]

On the unemployment front it looks as if the Manx model is coming out just about the best in Europe with high GDP; low unemployment and the capacity to still take on immigrant labour.

 

...and receive large handouts from the UK so that golden handshakes can be offered. Don't forget the CSP work relating to UK houses now lost.

 

I'm with Albert on this one - the future does not look good unless a nice fat rabbit can be pulled out of a hat very soon.

[Chinahand]

For me the current Reith Lectures - with Niall Fergeson - sum up the issues pretty well. This isn't a societal collapsing, end of money apocalypse.

 

Rather another part of the continual adaption as technology and ever better coordination over distance and time make the world ever more complex and interlinked.

 

There's no real way to stop this process - short of banning mobile phones and the internet - North Korea isn't somewhere to emulate. As a result we've got to roll with the punches it gives us and try to create robust systems to deal with human failings.

 

We've failed at that over the last 10 years, and thought we were on a winner when all we were doing was blowing up a huge bubble - we now face the consequences. No doubt we'll fail again, but it ain't the end of the world! People will still want kettles and cars and new carpets; and people will work to do so to try to make a living.

[pongo]

There is no good economic news coming out of the US. The US economy is showing no obvious signs of recovery.

 

According to May figures, in the US, 12.5 million people are officially unemployed - a slight reduction which is accounted for only because record numbers have now reached the limit of social security eligibility. The 'Labor Participation Rate', a much better measure of economic activity, is at its lowest level since 1981.

[pongo]

The markets will not vote for complete self annihilation.

 

The markets will be on both sides of any potential outcome. And if govts try to manipulate the markets with artificial controls the markets bet against them. The markets are currently already incredibly volatile partly because volume is so incredibly low.

[RC-Drift.com]

Never put America down, it'll recover big time as new emerging technologies claw back manufacturing from China etc.

[La_Dolce_Vita]

The US isn't going to be recovering anytime soon. The dollar is slowly being squeezed out as the worlds reserve currency, and when that happens you're going to see the worlds leading economy quickly go down the swanny.

 

Yes dear, we're all doomed, I know.

The EU is in a worse position than the US in respect of any idea of recovery. But I do think Lxxx is right. The US won't recover soon. It's not doom-mongering. Is there anything to indicate that a change will be seen in the short-term and how could this be possible in the short to medium term?

 

Slim - I do agree with what you say about capitalism continuing. And no, I don't think there will be a global collapse - not one simply caused by the problem of the finance sectors and services (if we are talking about the damage done to the European and US economies).

 

Although, of course, what exists today (as I have mentioned many times) is that it isn't really a capitalist international system (nor is there real capitalism in nations). It will and does continually change in order to sustain the interests of those parties who have economic power and control - it has always been this way. It isn't some supposed 'natural' process of free markets interacting considering the massive role of the State and how it operates.

 

Besides, the financial crisis never taught any lessons to anybody or force any great change that would be radically change a system or anything for much benefit of workers.

[La_Dolce_Vita]

For me the current Reith Lectures- with Niall Fergeson - sum up the issues pretty well. This isn't a societal collapsing, end of money apocalypse.

Does anyone seriously think it is the begin of societal collapse or end of money? I have to say, I haven't come across anything that would argue this.

 

Rather another part of the continual adaption as technology and ever better coordination over distance and time make the world ever more complex and interlinked.

There's no real way to stop this process - short of banning mobile phones and the internet - North Korea isn't somewhere to emulate. As a result we've got to roll with the punches it gives us and try to create robust systems to deal with human failings.

Am I misunderstanding or are you seriously arguing that technological integration is the cause of the problems that the EU and US faced six years or so years ago?

 

This seems to be quite a novel argument, although I have read something along these lines when people tried to explain the Black Monday crisis of 1987, which could make perfect sense, but I am very curious as to how the recent crises and current problems are a result of the same issues.

 

Most of what I have read and have heard argued focuses upon the role of the finance sector today as a supposed 'industry' and the problems inherent in the practices it undertakes.

 

We've failed at that over the last 10 years, and thought we were on a winner when all we were doing was blowing up a huge bubble - we now face the consequences. No doubt we'll fail again, but it ain't the end of the world! People will still want kettles and cars and new carpets; and people will work to do so to try to make a living.

Well hopefully people will become more political and more interested in the 'wider world' (although this can only be achieved through good education and less propaganda) so that they do have to live with these failures and don't remain in the position they are.

Yes, it is wonderful having all the goodies that new technology brings and they do improve the standard of living. But I think you would already know what other issues matter to me more that goods that can be purchased.