manshimajin Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manshimajin Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Ya can't beat a good wind up though now and again It is good to remember from time to time that whilst we are indoctrinated into thinking Germany is somehow the 'leading nation' - in terms of exports or GDP on a per capita basis it is not. On the unemployment front it looks as if the Manx model is coming out just about the best in Europe with high GDP; low unemployment and the capacity to still take on immigrant labour. Depends if you live life by stats and believe all you're told? How would we be if the CS/PS was reduced by 25% though? How many jobs are not real here, and have been built on the back of previous VAT income? How many people in local firms are reliant on that? How will things be with such a reduced income in 5 years time? How much do we have in the bank now, and how much is it projected to be in 5/10 years given the spending/loan/pennsion committments we currently have? On which path are we really heading? 'Now' is but a momentary transit in time. See http://www.manxforum..._15#entry717740 We all have hot buttons!!! BTW I personally think that unless both the public sector and the government reduce dramatically in size, unless we embrace value adding activities that cannot be taken offshore at the drop of a hat, unless we stop using up the Reserves and unless we learn to live in a world that will increasingly attack 'tax havens' (whether they are one or not) we are in deep trouble. The dwarf from the North would have us believe that all is well but the words coming out of government belie that. The reality is also that the survival of our financial sector has been massively reliant on the UK tax payers pumping money into the UK banks to prevent a collapse of the UK banking system that would have brought ours crashing down with it. We are lucky they did. So there is another tapayer 'subsidy' we get from the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 There is no good economic news coming out of the US. The US economy is showing no obvious signs of recovery. According to May figures, in the US, 12.5 million people are officially unemployed - a slight reduction which is accounted for only because record numbers have now reached the limit of social security eligibility. The 'Labor Participation Rate', a much better measure of economic activity, is at its lowest level since 1981. Very true. The only reason the US is not looking as bad as it should is because Europe is taking the headlines and the big money is flowing out of the euro and into the dollar as a supposed safe haven, artificially inflating it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 The only reason the US is not looking as bad as it should is because Europe is taking the headlines The US numbers are dreadful. I don't see Europe deflecting that news. The debate amongst optimistic analysts is between those who are saying that the US may be on the verge of recession ... and those who say that the US is already in recession but that it has yet to show in the official data. The pessimists are talking about a world depression. The stimulus programmes have failed, China is slipping (and many question the accuracy of China data anyhow), Europe is not going to reach agreement ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambon Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Very true. The only reason the US is not looking as bad as it should is because Europe is taking the headlines and the big money is flowing out of the euro and into the dollar as a supposed safe haven, artificially inflating it. This is true. I would not call it a safe haven though, just a hell of a lot safer than the Euro! Currency wise there are no safe havens. If there is an event, you need your money in equities or commodities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt W E Johns Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The only reason the US is not looking as bad as it should is because Europe is taking the headlines The US numbers are dreadful. I don't see Europe deflecting that news. The debate amongst optimistic analysts is between those who are saying that the US may be on the verge of recession ... and those who say that the US is already in recession but that it has yet to show in the official data. The pessimists are talking about a world depression. The stimulus programmes have failed, China is slipping (and many question the accuracy of China data anyhow), Europe is not going to reach agreement ... Careful Pongo, by stating the blatantly obvious you might be labelled a nutjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinahand Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 For me the current Reith Lectures- with Niall Fergeson - sum up the issues pretty well. This isn't a societal collapsing, end of money apocalypse. Does anyone seriously think it is the begin of societal collapse or end of money? I have to say, I haven't come across anything that would argue this. Quite alot of people - gold bugs especially - are of the view that fiat currencies don't work and will need to be replaced with a huge amount of social upheaval in the process. Money ended in Germany in the 1920s, Argentina in the early 2000s and Zim in the late 2000s. There is a non-zero probability it will happen in Greece, and an even lower but also not zero probability it could affect the entire Euro area and beyond. [Does that make me a nutjob Lxxx?] Rather another part of the continual adaption as technology and ever better coordination over distance and time make the world ever more complex and interlinked.There's no real way to stop this process - short of banning mobile phones and the internet - North Korea isn't somewhere to emulate. As a result we've got to roll with the punches it gives us and try to create robust systems to deal with human failings. Am I misunderstanding or are you seriously arguing that technological integration is the cause of the problems that the EU and US faced six years or so years ago? You are misunderstanding! If you were to try to understand why crises of this nature didn't happen in the 16th century, but do happen now the fundamental drivers are technology and improved communication. Sure in the 16th century the issue was the Big Problem of Small Change (I can't recommend this book, though the topic is fascinating, it is EXTREMELY technical!), but today's monetary problems are down to the fact people can attempt to measure, say, the default rates on mortgages in a certain sort of suburb in various cities and hence try to price a financial instrument that bundles them together. That takes a huge amount of coordination, and as we've all discovered is one risky thing to do - but you've got to be awed by the people who first tried to do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evil Goblin Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Quite alot of people - gold bugs especially - are of the view that fiat currencies don't work and will need to be replaced with a huge amount of social upheaval in the process. The problem with fiat currencies is that politicians, etc. cannot resist buying votes with money printed for the purpose. If currencies were managed properly without the venal politicians and the like they would probably work OK. today's monetary problems are down to the fact people can attempt to measure, say, the default rates on mortgages in a certain sort of suburb in various cities and hence try to price a financial instrument that bundles them together. That takes a huge amount of coordination, and as we've all discovered is one risky thing to do - but you've got to be awed by the people who first tried to do it! Our present monetary problems actually result from spendthrift Governments and a loan system where nobody cared about the quality of the loans at all because they anticipated passing them on in a financial "pass the parcel" game to end up with stupid banks and investment funds who didn't bother to understand the rubbish they were buying. Shame on the Banks, who were primarily responsible for knowingly flogging their customers this stuff - it was tantamount to fraud. Yet the self-same banks are still considered to be run by "fit and proper" people! Time to retire to Bedlam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evil Goblin Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The scandals just keep coming. J P Morgan Chase is now under investigation over allegations that it has been rigging parts of the US power supply market. Makes you wonder where it will end. It seems a lot of major banks are going to be implicated in the LIBOR scam - the lawsuits against them are likely to be horrendous - figures of several hundred billion have been speculated. If that does transpire what future for the banks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slim Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 It seems a lot of major banks are going to be implicated in the LIBOR scam - the lawsuits against them are likely to be horrendous - figures of several hundred billion have been speculated. If that does transpire what future for the banks? Including the BoE by all accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The scandals just keep coming. J P Morgan Chase is now under investigation over allegations that it has been rigging parts of the US power supply market. Makes you wonder where it will end. It seems a lot of major banks are going to be implicated in the LIBOR scam - the lawsuits against them are likely to be horrendous - figures of several hundred billion have been speculated. If that does transpire what future for the banks? They've hardly the liquidity to stay solvent as it is at the moment, if they get hit with more of this then who knows what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EORH Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Diamond has gone but with a few million pay off it seems, he is held responsible as the boss and will appear before a committee but will not lose out on the big bucks,strange world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Tatlock Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 People only have no future if they don't work for one. In the great depression of the 30's, 80% of people still had a job. The best investment is an investment in your own CV. Sometimes you have to budget for courses yourself, other times you can get your company or even the government to pay for courses. The government here pay 50% toward many training opportunities. Plus there is experience to be had, and pushing yourself further at work at every opportunity. And always save something, even if it's a littlea month, and aim for at least enough to see you through two months. It's not just global weather changes that bring more and more rainy days these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Virgin Money ... That Branson is a wise old sage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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