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Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370


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  • 4 months later...
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After mapping the sea bed the search is due to start in a week or so. Still at odds with Inmarsat et al are the Independent Group one of whom I quoted above. Their best guesstimate is now 37.5 S, 89.2 E - a long way south of the current Australian Transport Safety Bureau "Priority Search Area" as per graphic:

 

post-156-0-88725800-1411562680_thumb.jpg

 

 

The explanation they give is very interesting (if you like that kind of thing) and is at http://www.duncansteel.com/

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PK. yes, very interesting. I find it staggering and impressive that so much has been squeezed from such tiny bursts of data, never intended to give up positional information.

 

The problem for the ATSB is that they have done a bathymetric survey of the seabed at their favoured search location, and this (as I understand it) is pre-requisite for a detailed seabed search. If they go to the IG's proposed location, they would have to start again.

 

Who knows, they might have to do that in due course.

 

They can at least take comfort from another independent analysis that more or less agrees with their conclusions.

 

http://www.utdallas.edu/~zweck/MH370AugustReport.pdf

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  • 2 weeks later...

The plot thickens. After further analysis:

 

"In conclusion, the IG end point analysis fits with the IG fuel analysis, taking account of the uncertainties mentioned above. This gives us additional confidence that our derived end point at 37.71S 88.75E is close to the impact location of MH370, and we urge that the underwater search be directed towards this region."

 

post-156-0-54040900-1412331925_thumb.png

 

 

Full analysis http://www.duncansteel.com/archives/1104

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The Australian Transport Safety Bureau, who are driving the search for MH370, appear to have changed their minds about the accuracy of the original calculations.



It seems they are now surveying the area that was originally identified by the Independent Group as the most likely point of impact which is something like 1000 k south from the original main search area. How refreshing that a government organisation is prepared to change tack against the best guess of their earlier advisers. Although to be fair there are quite a few ways to slice and dice the available data. But on whose face will the egg be? The Independent Group or Inmarsat?



Hopefully time will tell.



Independent Group update http://www.duncansteel.com/archives/1144


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  • 2 months later...

Oh dear. Now they're arguing amongst themselves:

 

http://research-investigations.newsvine.com/_news/2014/12/18/27621932-atsb-rebuffs-ig-recommendation-as-official-mh370-search-area-widens

 

"Increasing the size of the search area increases the chances of finding MH370...." Well no shit Sherlock.

 

The search has been plugging away but it's a very big ocean. Follow @MikeChillit on Twitter for daily updates. If you're interested in that kind of thing of course...

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Search vessel Pheonix is starting to scan the Inmarsat predicted resting place of MH370.

 

Well, it's Inmarsat's kit so they should have the most accurate prediction. Well, you would think so anyway.

 

Watch that very very large space...

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