Gold

[quilp]

An accurate prediction perhaps ...?

[pongo]

Bit of a bust in the prediction game there, Gerry.

The last couple of weeks it is fashionably reported that the CBOE SKEW Index is at an all time high!

 

The crash of October 1987 sensitized investors to the potential for stock market crashes and forever changed their view of S&P 500® returns. Investors now realize that S&P 500 tail risk - the risk of outlier returns two or more standard deviations below the mean - is significantly greater than under a lognormal distribution. The CBOE SKEW Index ("SKEW") is an index derived from the price of S&P 500 tail risk. Similar to VIX®, the price of S&P 500 tail risk is calculated from the prices of S&P 500 out-of-the-money options. SKEW typically ranges from 100 to 150. A SKEW value of 100 means that the perceived distribution of S&P 500 log-returns is normal, and the probability of outlier returns is therefore negligible. As SKEW rises above 100, the left tail of the S&P 500 distribution acquires more weight, and the probabilities of outlier returns become more significant. One can estimate these probabilities from the value of SKEW. Since an increase in perceived tail risk increases the relative demand for low strike puts, increases in SKEW also correspond to an overall steepening of the curve of implied volatilities, familiar to option traders as the "skew".

The reporting typically explains that this potentially represents only a high perception of increased likely volatility - and notes the possibility of feedback.

[Mr Bear]

I've come across this online scaremongering about the collapse of everything. It's usually disseminated by individuals urging you to protect your wealth by investing it in (insert random investable thing here) which by sheer coincidence they can sell you at an unfavourably high price.

 

Oh well, not to worry. If the worlds financial system collapses all the people with practical skills and trades will be fine. It's the ones with no skills and nothing to barter that will have a rough ride. But as they probably contributed to the situation in the first place then it might be a good thing.

[manxy]

from wiki Officially Reported Gold Holdings

The IMF regularly maintains statistics of national assets as reported by various countries.^[5] These data are used by the World Gold Council to periodically rank and report the gold holdings of countries and official organizations.

On 17 July 2015, China announced that it increased its gold reserves by about 57 percent from 1,054 to 1,658 metric tons, while disclosing its official gold reserves for the first time in six years.^[6][7]

The gold listed for each of the countries in the table may not be physically stored in the country listed, as central banks generally have not allowed independent audits of their reserves. Gold leasing by central banks could place into doubt the reported gold holdings in the table below.

 

Whose to know the truth that's hidden behind these Bank Vaults?

The US is alleged to hold the most gold but if there's no independent audit, how would people know if this is true? Does the US have a good record on telling the truth?

 

Picture taken from Mining.com