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The War in Syria - ISIS et al


Chinahand

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Oh wait, I get it. You think the bit about our government being on the side of Isis was trolling.

 

Go on, enlighten me about how we're really on the side of Assad then, because it's obvious the war in Syria is between Assad and Isis, and we're against Assad.

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Yeah cos there can only be two sides in this conflict.

 

There are also the Kurds, and there are some Syrian Opposition forces. However, Russia is only targetting ISIS, and why is Turkey firing at Russian aircraft? Also, why did the US refuse Russiah help and refuses to share intelligence on ISIS locations. Follow the money - ISIS is being funded by people our government consider allies, like Saudi Arabia.

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But is Assad attacking the Kurds? Looks to me like the Kurds are defending themselves from ISIS and Turkey, but Assad is fighting ISIS and so-called Opposition groups. Do we know who these Opposition groups are? If you know, Chinahand, you know better than the US and UK intelligence service experts who have said we really don't know who is who on the ground.

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Russia is only targeting ISIS!!???

 

Oh yes. You enjoy RT do you?

 

So we should only read Western news outlets?

 

 

I trust no news outlets, but if you want a reasonably reliable source in the west, try Foreign Affairs. It is an establishment publication that the high fliers all read and it's usually brutally honest. It happens to support the Russian news outlets in this respect.

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Putin is protecting Assad, he isn't particularly concentrating on ISIS - hence bombing non-Isis areas along the Turkish border.

 

As I've raised before - the oil is basically used locally - sure ISIS made over a million a day from it to buy its SUVs and guns to mount on them, but the money mainly comes from the local population to run their electricity supplies, cars etc.

 

It is being smuggled into Turkey etc, but at the level of Jerry cans on donkeys and hosepipes, and not by ISIS, it has long been sold on to middle men, smugglers etc.

 

It looks like the US has decided after Paris enough is enough and they've started to destroy the oil lorries which supply this trade.

 

Putin could also have done it rather than complain about it on TV.

china, i assure you i havent gone all sort of rogue bobbo and set out to undermine you at every turn, i respect you and the respect you generally have and show to others but some things that you state with such certainty are not actually that certain in reality.

the reality is putin has done quite a bit about it, far more than the US in a far shorter timescale

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/11/18/russia-destroys-500-isis-turkey-oil-tanker-trucks/

so well in fact that PBS thought it probably easier to use russian footage of airstrikes and pass it off as american than actually find some american footage.

or thats how it seems to me at least

http://www.mintpressnews.com/epic-bombing-fail-pbs-uses-russian-footage-to-depict-us-airstrikes-on-isis-oil-fields/211521/

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The Ruskies had hit the tanker parks earlier than the Yanks, perhaps a week ago ..?

 

There is also a large elite unit of the Iranian Republican Guards fighting ISIS in Syria, 52 of them killed, many wounded. Shia buddies.

 

I was recently amazed to discover that there are 70+ different sects within islam, all having their own version of the ideology. Plenty of divided loyalties amongst the tribes.

 

The Assad regime (Alawite muslims, a minority in Syria)) should be supported for the time being. It is what might replace him should he topple. Assad is still very popular with large sections of the middle class and upward: so-called 'moderate' or 'progressive' muslims living in the more densely-populated West of Syria, with bank accounts and oil/property interests, who have the most to lose. He also came down hard on the jihadis and other radical groups, protected minorities and maintained law and order. What fate might befall these 'other' people if the regime collapsed? Millions more refugees for a start, with the ensuing chaos, mayhem and massacre that has become so familiar.

 

Putin knows this and has taken the long view as Obama and the West, dithers.

 

I completely agree with your assessment. I really am baffled that Russia and Iran appear to be the good guys, and our government is siding with the enemy, namely ISIS and their Turkish and Saudi backers. Assad has done nothing wrong as far as I'm aware. He kept a secular society, a lot of different ethnic and religious groups together, and any claims of him committing crimes against humanity are bogus and have already been exposed as having been committed by ISIS and not by him. The only good outcome that may arise from any of this is if the Kurds, a people I strongly respect and admire, finally have a state of their own.

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The Ruskies had hit the tanker parks earlier than the Yanks, perhaps a week ago ..?

I admit I'd not seen this, apologies, I'd thought the US had started to bomb the oil tankers first.

 

Though the US had taken the strategic decision to start degrading ISIS's oil resources quite a lot before this - starting bombing peripheral refineries back in September, before Russia became involved. Link

 

 

 

There is also a large elite unit of the Iranian Republican Guards fighting ISIS in Syria, 52 of them killed, many wounded. Shia buddies.

 

There are many thousands of Revolutionary Guards involved along with Iraqi Shia Militiamen etc. But these aren't just fighting ISIS.

 

The real battle for Syria is in Syria's west and that is where Russia and Iran have been helping the most.

 

They are involved in the fight with ISIS, but their main role has been to stop defeats in the west of Syria to mainly non-ISIS rebels. The whole reason for the international escalation of the fight this Autumn has been due to ongoing defeats for Assad in the late summer. Link link

 

The Assad regime (Alawite muslims, a minority in Syria)) should be supported for the time being. It is what might replace him should he topple. Assad is still very popular with large sections of the middle class and upward: so-called 'moderate' or 'progressive' muslims living in the more densely-populated West of Syria, with bank accounts and oil/property interests, who have the most to lose. He also came down hard on the jihadis and other radical groups, protected minorities and maintained law and order. What fate might befall these 'other' people if the regime collapsed? Millions more refugees for a start, with the ensuing chaos, mayhem and massacre that has become so familiar.

 

Putin knows this and has taken the long view as Obama and the West, dithers.

This looks like what is happening, but I think your underestimating just how much blood Assad has on his hands.

 

He's sanctioned mass bombings of civilian areas as well as disappearances, torture and killings on a huge scale.

 

He basically let the sectarian cat out of the bag.

 

Only 26% or so of the population aren't Sunni - Quilp, you are right these are dis-proportionately the elite and the wealthy, but I think you are missing the point when you say they still support Assad.

 

Assad's deliberate violence toward the Sunni has given the minority groups little choice but to stick with the devil they know.

 

But that was a monstrous tactic by Assad and has made it very very difficult to reconstruct a post war Syria.

 

The Sunni are too numerous to be ignored, but Assad has deliberately radicalized them to keep the minority elite on his side.

 

The result is killings on a huge scale. Assad has sacrificed 100s of thousands of people to balance an unstable pyramid on its point.

 

That strategy is going to fail, and to continue to prop it up will only sustain fighting.

 

Without a moderate Sunni alternative who will protect the Alawite, Druze, Shia and Christian minorities, Syria will remain trapped in violence between Assad and ISIS.

 

Iran is fine with that, but I think it is a huge strategic plunder by Putin - he and Turkey should be sharing out the Sunni moderates between them - that would result in a real strategic kerfuffle with Nato and the West.

 

Rather they are on opposite sides and firing on each other.

 

Syria is a quagmire and Russia has just as much to loose from radical Sunnis as the west, but Putin has choosen to ally with Assad inflaming radicalism.

 

It won't work.

 

Until Turkey and Saudi (both Sunni) can accomodate Iran and Iraq (Shia); and Russia and the US can agree, Assad and ISIS will have an interest in radicalizing the conflict along sectarian lines.

 

It is going to be a long and bloody war.

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