wrighty Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 My prediction - uk will exit the EU. I really have no idea if that is a good thing or not. How will this happen? Problem is that people don't trust politicians. Cameron is in favour of staying, based on his 'deal', but I don't think the average person thinks he's achieved anything. Corbyn is in favour, but people think he will open the floodgates to immigrants. What will happen if the Scots and the English have different results? Further calls for Scots independence I imagine. An out vote is clearly the most interesting, so for that reason alone it's what I'm hoping to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Umberto Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I believe it is in our interest to leave the EU. Everything about it is an open affront to our national sovereignty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 An out vote is clearly the most interesting, so for that reason alone it's what I'm hoping to see. Exit would almost certainly be, indirectly, bad news for IOM business and therefore employment and the economy. The deal is weak and unconvincing - the EU does need reform. But the PM Cameron remains popular with the public. Plus the City (which drives the economy in these islands) and most of British business is firmly behind continued membership - with very few significant exceptions. Almost nobody from the mainstream is calling for an exit. Exit is backed by chancers like Farage and George Galloway - and on the Conservative side by unpopular MPs like Gove, Redwood and IDS. Those calling for an exit seem typically to be the sort who see 'national sovereignty' as if it were somehow an end in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donald Trumps Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Boring for Britain on Brexit - Bravo Bazza! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambon Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Cameron wants to leave and it sticks in his craw that the political directors (Rothchilds, etc.) want to stay in, centralise everything, and control everything. UK must leave or become a totally controlled state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
war baby Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Boris has announced he will campaign to leave, a direct challenge to Dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TupacBMXer Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Boris Johnson Backs Campaign To Leave EU http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/boris-johnson-backs-campaign-to-leave-eu/ar-BBpMfvD?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=mailsignoutmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarne Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 There's no chance of Britain leaving, especially not with the sweeteners that David Cameron has got. (Well done Sir!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 It's a serious issue though as it's going against the IOM now. If we're not careful we will end up a UK Crown Dependency stuck to an isolated ex-EU trading economy. Manx people don't get the chance to be careful. Quasi-independence means that Manx people do not have the democratic opportunity to influence the policies which most affect them - since those policies are typically prepared in London and Brussels. A significant amount of UK and British Isles policy will still be decided in Brussels even if Britain chooses to exit. Very little will change. Since that will be a requirement of the inevitable trade arrangements which will be put in place. And it will likely cost just as much. The same as Switzerland and Norway. The only significant difference will be that, like the IOM today, people in the UK will no longer get to influence policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Declan Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Boris has announced he will campaign to leave, a direct challenge to Dave. Imagine this scenario - Britain votes to narrowly stay. A majority of Tory members though vote to leave. Because he fought the good fight against Europe they vote for Boris to replace Cameron. What happens at the next election? Do the Tories stand on a Euro exit manifesto? They only need 40% to get a majority in the house and I can't see the Liberals and Nationalists rallying behind Corbyn. So Britain leaves anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Nobody has even thought any of this through from the IOM perspective. Alan Bell has addressed this issue. What else can the island do other than monitor the situation? The mistakes were made decades ago. Island will remain vigilant on EU referendum http://www.lowtax.net/g/news/Isle_Of_Man_Looks_To_Shore_Up_Future_With_EU____68230.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Bollocks. I don't care whether Bell is monitoring it or not (and let's face it he isnt doing anything other than using the BBC News App like everyone else). We could get screwed on this as the UK becomes essentially what we have been. We will end up with very little reasons for anyone to come to the IOM for anything as they will be able to do it all through the UK in future. So what do you actually propose? There is nothing to be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Boring for Britain on Brexit - Bravo Bazza! It's a serious issue though as it's going against the IOM now. If we're not careful we will end up a UK Crown Dependency stuck to an isolated ex-EU trading economy. The UK and the City of London will end up as the tax planning centre of the EU once it breaks away. Which would leave us with no access to EU markets, and as a very junior partner in the offshore tax planning game. If only we had any other economic diversification to offer. But we don't. I think if they win (and I think they will, as Boris Johnson has even been convinced to switch sides) the UK has completely out gunned us on this as it means they don't need us anymore as international businesses can just go direct to the heart of the City of London and do what they used to do here. How much EU VAT structuring goes through the IOM currently and contributes to the VAT collection figures? Loads. If our relationship with the EU changes we have serious problems. I don't think anyone really knows the consequences of Brexit, but I'm pretty certain that none of the out mob in the UK have chosen that position with any thought whatsoever to 'out-gunning' the IOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Has anyone even thought about that here? No they haven't. etc But what are you actually proposing? Nobody here is in a position to influence the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 They are in a position to take advice, to seek representation, and to employ people and advisers to consider the potential outcome and the knock on tpfor the IOM. Mr Bell has said that "our initial assessment will be completed before spring of next year, and the Council of Ministers has agreed that the report should be made public" - 13th Nov 2015 (spring 2016 begins of the 20th March) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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