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American Presidential Elections 2016


Chinahand

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Thought I'd start a bit of a mega thread on the 2016 US Presidential Elections.

 

Trump and Sanders have triumphed in New Hampshire - that makes an independent run by Michael Bloomberg more likely.

 

I can't really imagine Sanders defeating Hillary (he might run her close, but no he won't defeat her), but the Republican nomination is totally incomprehensible to me.

 

Is it really possible that someone like Trump could win it?

 

Boy, is the American Political system disfunctional.

 

My understanding is that Jeb Bush is trailing Rubio, who is trailing Cruz, who is trailing Trump.

 

Trump would be a disaster for the US. He is a caricature of a reality TV understanding of politics. Cruz is well well outside the mainstream with extreme right wing views on government and social issues. Rubio is a non-establishment, right winger and Bush an establishment right winger.

 

My understanding is that Trump has created such a whirlwind that Bush is out.

 

The question is will the Republican Grass roots ditch Trump - and if they do which of the other 2 republicans are right wing enough and anti-establishment enough to pick up Trumps supporters?

 

That looks to me like Cruz, though mainstream establishment republicans hate him compared to Rubio. Will the establishment be able to influence the vote enough to get someone who though non-establishment is at least someone they could work with, something which is unlikely with either Cruz or Trump as candidate.

 

As other candidates drop out things will start to clarify, but at the moment I can't separate Trump, Cruz or Rubio.

 

I'm 90% certain it will be one of those 3.

 

At the moment I'm:

 

25% Trump - I think people will see sense and move from him towards a professional politician rather than a reality TV caricature, but who knows I may well be wrong.

 

37.5% Cruz, 37.5% Rubio - I can't distinguish them, my gut feel is Cruz will pull ahead, but until Super Tuesday etc I'm just not sure.

 

Also if Trump does well on Super Tuesday who knows what will happen!

 

What must the Chinese be thinking!!

 

 

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Which is why very powerful forces will be out to stop Trump.

 

Get angry, get Hillary will have resonance.

 

Though America is such a segregated society maybe in the echo chamber most Tea Partiers etc live in it won't.

 

"Billy Bob that Hillary don't have a chance - everyone thinks the way I do - all the guys at the shooting range, at the Church, at the BBQ; they all say the way to make 'Merica great again is vote Trump."

 

Shudders.

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Of course Trump is going to win the Republican race, he's the epitome of what Republicans want.

 

 

Fortunately most of the country isn't stupid enough to want that so it'll be another Democratic victory in the election.

 

You have a more positive view than me.

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Trump would be a disaster for the US.

Mrs Clinton is equally awful. Mr Trump is a pantomime by comparison. And people laughed for years at the prospect of Mr Reagan ever becoming President - it seemed inconceivable and then it actually happened.

 

Meanwhile I very strongly recommend:

 

The War Room (YouTube) - a fly-on-the-wall documentary following the Bill Clinton campaign in 1992. One of the best political documentaries ever made and a compelling story.

 

Feed (YouTube) - a 1992 documentary comprising mostly footage from satellite feeds either side of the actual interviews. Today most broadcast feeds are encrypted and this would not be possible.

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