EU Poll - "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

[When Skies Are Grey]

Problems with referenda is that those voting are oft ill equipped to make an informed decision.

[woolley]

Pound falls below $1.39 as economists warn Brexit could hammer households www.telegraph.co.uk

 

I was converting USD into sterling this morning. $1 now gets me 70p.

 

UK is the 5th largest economy in the world.

Partly thanks to Britain's membership of the EU.

 

Most people are Euro-sceptics to some degree. But very few economists are arguing that a British exit would definitely boost British business. Most believe that it would likely have a negative effect. And more than that - the process of transition would take decades -- a long period of economic and business uncertainty.

 

It's worth remembering that, thanks to the EU, London is the world's largest exporter of financial services. A business which the IOM indirectly benefits from.

 

I don't accept that the UK position in that league table is contingent on membership of the EU. And there is still that huge trade balance deficit with the EU which they are not going to want to give up. Things would go on much as before. They don't trade with Britain because they love Britain. It's just business.

 

Economists are a curious bunch. I remember them telling us it would be the end of the world when Britain didn't adopt the euro. As we all know, it has been a disaster and we are very lucky Blair didn't get his way on that. Economists are so smart that none of them saw the bubble building before the financial crash. I wouldn't set too much store by what they say.

[the stinking enigma]

its quite hard to grasp all of this because both sides are only ever really going on about the negatives of not going with their choice. nothing i have read (daily star/sports pages of the mirror) has really mentioned any positive things about either choice, other than that it will avoid the negatives of not making the aforementioned decision in favour of the other team. the mail have turned on cameron and that interests me, though i dont know why.

have to say im still undecided on this one

[wrighty]

Economics is much like meteorology in my opinion - very good at giving us exact reasons for what's just happened, but hopeless at predicting what'll happen in the future, certainly any longer than the short-term.

 

We've got very intelligent, very qualified, very well-connected and very credible people speaking on both sides of this debate. I don't think anyone knows for certain whether it's better to stay or go. People will largely vote with their guts, and the outcome will probably depend on the weather on the day of the referendum.

[the stinking enigma]

i'll get back to you

[pongo]

I don't see the point of taking a leap in the dark to then spend decades renegotiating treaties and agreements which are currently working effectively. For the sake of some nebulous notion of sovereignty. I don't actually care about sovereignty. I care about jobs, economic prosperity, opportunity etc.

 

The anti EU side do not seem to be providing any practical vision of how they imagine the period after a vote and leading up to an exit. Or how long that would take. Or anything really. They seem to know what they don't like - and that's it.

[Zarley]

 

You do get the impression that Cameron probably bullied Boris at school and Boris has spent the rest of his life plotting revenge.

According to Boris HQ it was very much the other way around - Boris was head boy and top dog.

 

According to Wikipedia they're also 8th cousins and both also related to the Queen and most of the European royal families.

Soooo... they're both from Foxdle?

[woolley]

I really don't think that it would make a great deal of difference to commerce. Business happens because there are willing parties to trade and that does not depend on a bunch of self-important bureaucrats in Brussels. How would they block trade anyhow? China seems to have no problems selling to the EU and the WTO is dead against protectionism.

 

I voted no in 1975 and if I had a vote I would vote no again. I've seen nothing to change my mind in the intervening years. I have nothing against Europe. I love to travel on the continent and since we have a property there, a Brexit would probably cause us a headache from a personal point of view.

[the stinking enigma]

im almost embarrassed for him. daves scriptwriters must be mortified

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35651000

if i was corbyn i would probably got up and stuck the head on him. or introduced some pig puns at least

[Declan]

I'm not really a Corbyn supporter but I find how he conducts himself refreshing.

 

I think anyone else's retort would have been "My mother told me not to play with my food.

[woolley]

Yes. That is his one endearing feature. He is not packaged and hyped.

[Chinahand]

Back on topic.

 

Is this the situation?

 

We've spent decades and decades negotiating how the UK fits into the multi-lateral world system.

 

We've just had another go at it and are putting it to a vote.

 

If we vote out, we'll abandon all this work and go and do what? Spend decades and decades negotiating how the UK fits into the multi-lateral world system.

 

My understanding is that quite a few of those on the Out side would, if they win, in fact renegotiate to go back into the EU - believing they would get a better deal from starting again!

 

What is this tendency humans have to think if they rip everything up and start again the result will be some dramatic improvement? The reality more often than not is more of the same.

 

This is the trouble when you try to cast incremental attempts to improve managerial issues of governance - how to ensure common standards for Kettle safety across the EU, improve inter-agency cooperation on trans-national criminal networks, write regulations for benefits for a dynamic and complex population - into quantum leap rhetoric about transforming or destroying our way of life.

 

When people live in a village and work and trade with people from that village it is easy to set standards and norms, but the world ain't like that any more, and the idea it will suddenly reappear if we vote no is typical political hype.

 

No matter what the vote the result will be a complex, managerial negotiation to try to fit local standards and norms into a multi-lateral system.

 

The idea the result will be some huge improvement doesn't gain traction with me; more like time consuming, distracting, and wasteful of political capital which could be better spent on issues closer to people's concerns with more identifiable and realistic goals.

 

Vote no and let us seek a new utopia is just a silly campaign theme, but it does look to be what they are saying.

 

The trouble is, Vote yes and experience the messy reality of incremental managerial politics may be closer to reality, but it is difficult to motivate voters around.

 

Hey ho - if we have a spring containing a migrant crisis & terrorist attacks then the UK will be out of the EU and the result will be quite significant uncertainty.

 

Great.

[woolley]

I keep saying it. It won't make a great deal of difference either way because the big players in this are not nearly as important as they think they are. You can relate it to the boom on the Island. The Isle of Man Government thinks it created the boom and thinks it can do so again. The EU thinks it is essential to trade. It isn't. It just leeches an existence from it.

 

Most people on both sides will vote on gut instinct rather than reasoned argument. There will be plenty of younger people voting yes because they have never known anything different and are hearing all the scare stories. "Always keep a hold of nurse."

[Tarne]

Come on chaps, pony up some cash and put your money where your mouths are! Currently odds are 1/3 on remaining in EU, and 9/4 for leaving.

 

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics

[mojomonkey]

Come on chaps, pony up some cash and put your money where your mouths are! Currently odds are 1/3 on remaining in EU, and 9/4 for leaving.

 

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics

They seem pretty confident in remaining in.