EU Poll - "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

[Chinahand]

Woolley, the Economist Magazine disagrees with you:

 

The Brexit lobby ... claim that, because Britain runs a big trade deficit with other EU countries, they need the British market more than Britain needs theirs. This is a fallacy: Britain accounts for only 10% of EU exports, while the EU takes almost half of Britain’s. Moreover, most of the British trade deficit with the EU is with just two countries, Germany and Spain—yet a trade agreement must be endorsed by the other 25 members too.

 

[Another] argument is that a post-Brexit Britain could strike new free-trade deals swiftly. Yet experienced trade diplomats are doubtful. Tough negotiators like the South Koreans are unlikely to offer Britain the same deal they gave the EU. America, China and India have made clear that they would be more interested in a deal with the EU than one with Britain alone. When it comes to opening China to more trade, say, the negotiating clout of the world’s biggest market far outweighs Britain’s alone.

 

The UK may import more than it exports to the EU, but that isn't an example of UK power, quite the opposite, it is a sign of weakness.

 

To blithely talk of the problems being transitory while acknowledging they will last "two or three years" just shows how nutty the Brexit camp is.

 

That is very optimistic in both time scale and impact.

 

Why would the UK be able to negotiate better trade terms than it has at the moment - currently we have free trade with the EU and the advantage of its huge negotiating size for wider agreements.

 

Neither are at all guaranteed with Brexit, especially in financial services wrt the EU, and with wider trade negotiations elsewhere. We are simply not significant enough for China to grant us better concessions that the EU will be able to get.

[woolley]

Chinahand. You have taken in all of the rhetoric from the vested interests. Money is what counts, and they make more from us than we make from them. Forget the percentages and the stats and just count the cash. You said that Britain will IMMEDIATELY lose its membership privileges. It won't. Nothing will change until the new arrangements are in place.

 

I quite agree that the trade imbalance is not a sign of strength but one of weakness. So this is where 43 years of EU membership has taken the UK. It is the 5th largest economy in the world and you are trying to tell me that it cannot stand on its own feet? I well remember the dire predictions from experts of what would happen if Britain did not adopt the euro.

 

Here are the great and the good lining up in the Economist in 1998 to say what a jolly good idea it would be and how we would be reckless to spurn it. Turned out well, eh? http://www.economist.com/node/125462

 

You are also ignoring the massive politcal and economic problems facing the EU and its mega currency superstate project beyond narrow trade considerations. It will all end in tears anyway and far better to have cut the ties before it does.

[notwell]

Commercially they are over playing the importance of the EU.

 

The reality is countries like the uk support the shite countries and leaving the EU will enhance the UKs financial position in the medium to long term.

 

The only thing they need to do is enforce proper border control and enforce a rigorous deportation process

[Tarne]

I'm still not sold on leaving the EU. We're importing a hell of a lot of tasty Polish girls still, and that's a really good thing.

[hillshepherd]

Commercially they are over playing the importance of the EU.

 

The reality is countries like the uk support the shite countries and leaving the EU will enhance the UKs financial position in the medium to long term.

 

The only thing they need to do is enforce proper border control and enforce a rigorous deportation process

Disadvantages of EU Membership to UK include:

1. Cost. The costs of EU membership to the UK is £15bn gross (0.06% of GDP) – or £6.883 billion net. See UK government spending. (UKIP claim that the cost of EU membership in total amounts to £83bn gross if you include all possible costs, such as an ‘estimated’ £48bn of regulation costs – or £1,380 per head [1]
2. Inefficient policies. A large percentage of EU spending goes on the Common Agricultural Policy. For many years this distorted agricultural markets by placing minimum prices on food. This lead to higher prices for consumers and encouraging over-supply. Reforms to CAP have reduced, but not eliminated this wastage.
3. Problems of the Euro. Membership of the EU doesn’t necessarily mean membership of the Euro. But, the EU has placed great emphasis on the Single Currency. However, it has proved to have many problems and contributed to low rates of economic growth and high unemployment across the EU. See: Problems of Euro
4. Pressure towards austerity. Since 2008, many southern European countries have faced pressure from the EU to pursue austerity – spending cuts to meet budget deficit targets, but in the middle of a recession these austerity measures have contributed to prolonged economic stagnation.
5. Net Migration. Free Movement of Labour has caused problems of overcrowding in UK cities. The UK’s population is set to rise to 70 million over next decade, partly due to immigration. This has pushed up house prices and led to congestion on roads. The concern is that the UK is powerless to prevent large scale immigration because EU rules allow free movement of labour. See: Impact of immigration on UK economy
6. More bureaucracy less democracy. It is argued that the EU has created extra layers of bureaucracy whilst taking away decision making process further from local communities. For example, the British Chambers of Commerce has estimated that the annual cost to the UK of EU regulation is £7.4bn. The introduction of Qualified majority voting (QMV) mean that on many decisions votes can be taken against the public interest of a particular country.
7. http://www.economicshelp.org/europe/disadvantages-eu/

i believe the uk give the EU £55 000 000 a day to prop this bastardized undemocratic construct up, they DO NOT want to lose this as well as the military beef OF which more than half of them have fuck all, and rely on others to defend them, FOR FUCK ALL.

vote brexit.

 

http://www.economicshelp.org/europe/disadvantages-eu/

[Tweek]

Our business in the UK converted most of its euros to pounds this week. If there is no Brexit, word is pound will strengthen sharply, devaluing the euro account for later conversion to £s.

[Tarne]

That's good to know Tweek, back up to 1.40 € to £?

[Barrie Stevens]

Pound falls below $1.39 as economists warn Brexit could hammer households www.telegraph.co.uk

 

I was converting USD into sterling this morning. $1 now gets me 70p.

 

UK is the 5th largest economy in the world.

Partly thanks to Britain's membership of the EU.

 

Most people are Euro-sceptics to some degree. But very few economists are arguing that a British exit would definitely boost British business. Most believe that it would likely have a negative effect. And more than that - the process of transition would take decades -- a long period of economic and business uncertainty.

 

It's worth remembering that, thanks to the EU, London is the world's largest exporter of financial services. A business which the IOM indirectly benefits from.

 

 

No it is not thanks to the EU...It is thanks to the opening up of the City and dismantling of the old boy club plus many City firms selling out to American outfits...The City became like Wimbledon tennis...The British rarely win but the world wants to play in its club...The Americans and Germans when they started taking over and abolishing the old late starts and liquid lunch habits turned the City round...Before then it was not really possible for City firms to sell out but Thatcher changed the rules/laws and the highly competitive foreigners flooded in and brought more in besides. I was there and saw it happen.

[pongo]

I was there and saw it happen.

Sterling work, keeping the bathrooms tidy and the bins empty.

[hillshepherd]

i see Adolph Merkel got stuffed in the kraut elections,roll on the referendum in the UK there may also be suprises for the cameroon bar.

[Tempus Fugit]

slowly slowly, they won't notice until it's too late

[Barrie Stevens]

 

I was there and saw it happen.

Sterling work, keeping the bathrooms tidy and the bins empty.

 

 

I retired in 2008 so no more work at all for me...Other people work. I watch them! Gentleman of leisure now!

[Barrie Stevens]

There is a case going before the High Court in London asking that basically expats even those away over fifteen years get a vote in the referendum...If approved this will add two million to the register of voters and may delay the referendum...It may also give a vote in the referendum to all expats on the Isle of Man etc..

[mojomonkey]

i see Adolph Merkel got stuffed in the kraut elections,roll on the referendum in the UK there may also be suprises for the cameroon bar.

 

The irony of calling her Adolph is quite amusing given the stance of the party that appeared to take most of the votes away from CDU. It was only state elections and only in three states, not a national election but I suppose they give an indication of the national mood. Here in Baden Wuerttemberg the Green Party came first again, increasing their seats and the CDU came second but lost seats. It seems rather bizarre to have the Green Party in charge of a state the economy of which is based on industry and in particular the automotive industry.

[the stinking enigma]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/ttip-big-business-and-us-to-have-major-say-in-eu-trade-deals-leak-reveals-a6937141.html

i must admit i dont really know what this means. i could research it but still may struggle, plus i generally prefer manxforums own special way of educating. what does this all mean?