So the UK is finished says Theresa Mayhem

[the stinking enigma]

More George and Mildred i'd say.

[Tarne]

9 hours ago, woolley said:

Fine so long as you don't leave it too long I'd say, PK. No way would I back the euro against sterling long term.

Eh, what are you calling long term? The £ vs € 10 years ago was almost €1.50 to the £.

I think things in the UK are looking pretty dire to be honest! 

[woolley]

So you'd back the euro long term against sterling would you, Tarne? The euro has absolutely dire fundamentals. It is being propped up for political purposes chiefly by Germany. The next euro crisis is always around the corner and it cannot possibly survive in its current form with its present reach.

The exchange rate between sterling and the euro does fluctuate. Tell me about it. I deal with it on a daily basis, but you know a lot of this doom and gloom is just hype from the media and you can almost hear their disappointment that things aren't even worse. Markets don't like uncertainty, this is true, but if you look at the five year exchange rate graphs, the exchange rate was very similar in 2013 to the level today, and nobody was kicking off about that. The doom mongering is a self fulfilling prophecy.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=10Y

I am convinced that if they play a good hand here ( a big if I know, or even walk away from the talks which WOULD be better than a bad deal) then the problem long term will be trying to restrain sterling from overheating and flying too high.

 

 

[P.K.]

44 minutes ago, woolley said:

........ but you know a lot of this doom and gloom is just hype from the media and you can almost hear their disappointment that things aren't even worse.......

Reporting the figures is not "hype" of any kind. It's just reporting the figures....

I've seen this before when organisations start believing their own propoganda  marketing. Their figures are going over a cliff but there seems to be a group denial because the reality is just too awful to contemplate.

Liam Fox is a good case in point. He is trying to pillory the BBC on the grounds that the UK not going into recession should be trumpeted as some kind of major Brexit success. Yet the Beeb is reporting on the IMF downgrading the UK growth forecast. Which the BBC naturally have no control over.

We called it "Reality Land" or in the jargon of the day "Management By Fact" where the Devil is very much in the detail....

[woolley]

I don't mean the figures PK. I mean the slavish reporting of everything negative and very little of anything positive. Nothing is going over a cliff. As I said, sterling was at much the same levels in 2013 and again a while before that. I know exactly where it is and has been for years because I am involved with the effects of it on a daily basis.

I agree with you about believing your own marketing. This is what is happening on the pro EU side.

[Barrie Stevens]

The Daily Telegraph is claiming an exclusive saying that Brexit talks will cease like now unless UK agrees to pay big divorce bill up front! Mmmm Even I would be inclined to walk out and declare Independence like the American colonists....On the other hand, like King George III I think the UK should make the Crown Dependencies chip in to any settlement that be reached....(Perhaps I should not put ideas into the heads of certain people!)

[woolley]

It would be the best thing to do all round. End of uncertainty.

[Barrie Stevens]

6 minutes ago, woolley said:

It would be the best thing to do all round. End of uncertainty.

When you read the American Declaration of Independence there are many similarities to Brexit and Jefferson's text could certainly be adapted as a rebellion against the EU...I post a link to the document...

https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/declaration-transcript

[Bobbie Bobster]

22 minutes ago, Barrie Stevens said:

The Daily Telegraph is claiming an exclusive saying that Brexit talks will cease like now unless UK agrees to pay big divorce bill up front! Mmmm Even I would be inclined to walk out and declare Independence like the American colonists....On the other hand, like King George III I think the UK should make the Crown Dependencies chip in to any settlement that be reached....(Perhaps I should not put ideas into the heads of certain people!)

 

20 minutes ago, woolley said:

It would be the best thing to do all round. End of uncertainty.

 

Hopefully more sensible heads will prevail.

[woolley]

I don't think that the uncertainty of trying to get agreement with the equivalent of 27 cats in a sack is sensible though, and I can see the "negotiations" falling apart two or three years down the line after more years of damaging uncertainty. The only positive I could see for delay is the possibility that the EU transforms its thinking on what it is for and becomes a completely different animal. In the absence of that the UK would be better just getting on with it.

[P.K.]

If true I see it as the obvious response to the announcement earlier today that "freedom of movement" will end in March 2019.

From the Stalinist BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40734504

As this item has yet to be discussed in the Brexit negotiations it's just a tad previous I would say....

[woolley]

Stalinist.

[Tarne]

I don't know, I can see the UK having to do quantitative easing and I can see the pound losing another half again on it's value. 

On the other hand I can see the EU having a major crisis again. 

So I'll go with "I don't know"  

[pongo]

4 hours ago, woolley said:

It would be the best thing to do all round. End of uncertainty.

It would not end the uncertainty.

There are no systems in place - eg no IT systems, no codes of practice, no forms prepared ready to fill in. Not just trade, but in almost every aspect of life which could be potentially impacted either by no deals or by any deals which mean current processes being changed. Import-export, law and order, taxation, passport control, finance, industrial standards, etc etc. Basically everything.

In a sensible world, one thing is changed at a time. Changing everything all at once is clearly daft. It's the kind of thing politicians and populists demand without taking into account the costs, practicalities, development schedules, staffing issues etc. With or without deals the new systems required in every aspect of life will need to be specified, put out to tender, planned, developed, tested etc

I believe that this will gradually dawn on bright people. That we're looking at something like a national emergency and a major crisis unless the entire process is either put on hold or else kicked into touch. It's bigger than the end of empire - and that was gradual process taking many decades. It's a disaster.

Edited July 27, 2017 by pongo

[woolley]

No. Bright people will sort it out and get ahead. It's the others who will continue to wallow in it.