So the UK is finished says Theresa Mayhem

[pongo]

This is the era we are living in: A total rejection of expert opinion in favour of fringe ideas about replacing imperfect but established and relatively local markets with 'international trade'. One day, somehow. Throwing out a successful model on nothing more than a hope. For utterly ideological reasons. It's an act of economic vandalism.

It's unbelievable that people like Farage, Boris and Gove (and now Jacob Rees Mogg FFS) are not, literally, pilloried. Look at them.

The extreme Brexit people need to be put straight. The people of Britain had a brain fart and narrowly voted to quit the EU. They did not vote to quit the single market etc. That question was not asked.

 

1 hour ago, woolley said:

You cannot know that. For one thing that always seems to be glossed over, you cannot predict what will happen within the EU itself. The portents there do not look good either economically or politically.

You should be fired for your doom laden pronouncements.

Edited August 5, 2017 by pongo

[woolley]

@ Pongo:

 A total rejection of expert opinion in favour of fringe ideas: Maybe we've all had enough of "expert opinion" and where it has led us.

Throwing out a successful model on nothing more than a hope: EU? Successful? Costs a fortune. Unaccountable. Failing people all over the continent.

For utterly ideological reasons. Sound reasons of sovereignty and democracy.

It's an act of economic vandalism. More doom. In time it may well be the opposite of that.

It's unbelievable that people like Farage, Boris and Gove (and now Jacob Rees Mogg FFS) are not, literally, pilloried: Blair, Clarke, Clegg, Adonis, Sturgeon, likewise. Each side has its boneheads and its sensible advocates. Can't draw anything from that.

The extreme Brexit people need to be put straight. The people of Britain had a brain fart and narrowly voted to quit the EU. They did not vote to quit the single market etc. That question was not asked: It didn't need to be. The membership of the single market etc. is synonymous with membership of the EU. There is EU membership and there is Brexit. Nobody voted for a fudge in the middle.

You should be fired for your doom laden pronouncements: I am always cheerful. Just the kind of guy I am.

[pongo]

It's not the job of the Governor of the Bank to talk a good game. That would be political. He is not supposed to talk up or talk down Sterling. You're shooting the messenger.

His role is to reflect and explain the evidence and model based independent position of the Bank with respect to the economy and monetary policy.

7 minutes ago, woolley said:

Maybe we've all had enough of "expert opinion" and where it has led us.

We should not be following the sort of people who have had enough of experts or fringe opinion in general. That's stupid.

[doc.fixit]

........and meanwhile, all the immigration problems are sliding under the radar.............there is still massive illegal immigration happening in the UK and no strategy to stop it..............

[ballaughbiker]

I find it remarkable that a dogmatic pro- brexiteer thinks they can somehow predict the economic future. It is now entirely unpredictable thanks to the vote.

The far from perfect Eu did at least have a financial, legal and regulatory framework that ensured some predictability. We have chosen to trash that on some huge gamble and are heading lemming like to the cliff. There is the off-chance that the cliff is not as high as some think but why take the huge gamble instead of modifying the relationship?

Ain't post truth politics exciting?  And stupid.

One huge difference between me and an ideology-driven brexiteer is that I'd love to be proved wrong about all this.

[Barrie Stevens]

9 minutes ago, ballaughbiker said:

I find it remarkable that a dogmatic pro- brexiteer thinks they can somehow predict the economic future. It is now entirely unpredictable thanks to the vote.

The far from perfect Eu did at least have a financial, legal and regulatory framework that ensured some predictability. We have chosen to trash that on some huge gamble and are heading lemming like to the cliff. There is the off-chance that the cliff is not as high as some think but why take the huge gamble instead of modifying the relationship?

Ain't post truth politics exciting?  And stupid.

One huge difference between me and an ideology-driven brexiteer is that I'd love to be proved wrong about all this.

The big problem is that some 57 trading agreements will end so far as the UK is concerned once Brexit is finalised..Such agreements were done for us by the EU and the clout it has..

It takes years to agree trade agreements and the UK has few people legally trained and possessed of the skills to do this. to do this...

They are offering crash courses to recent graduates hired by the Civil Service but is not the same as the experienced EU negotiators..It can take years just talking about the goods/produce/minerals etc...Hence the WTO rules and comments by former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King...There is not enough time now to get all our ducks in a row...

[Barrie Stevens]

16 minutes ago, ballaughbiker said:

I find it remarkable that a dogmatic pro- brexiteer thinks they can somehow predict the economic future. It is now entirely unpredictable thanks to the vote.

The far from perfect Eu did at least have a financial, legal and regulatory framework that ensured some predictability. We have chosen to trash that on some huge gamble and are heading lemming like to the cliff. There is the off-chance that the cliff is not as high as some think but why take the huge gamble instead of modifying the relationship?

Ain't post truth politics exciting?  And stupid.

One huge difference between me and an ideology-driven brexiteer is that I'd love to be proved wrong about all this.

Another factor is shipping. I well recall when we had a large merchant fleet bringing in trade and especially food and raw materials from all over the world...It appears that we are looking at having our own trade deals again with various countries.

Food we are told will be a problem post Brexit...Well, anyone remember the stores that sold items imported from the Empire/Commonwealth? I do. International Stores, Home and Colonial, Maypole and one other I forget it just said "Empire" on the front.

Containerisation has changed a lot of trades. There is currently too much shipping space and freights and hires are low and rather cheap. However, we will still have to pay out in Dollars for shipping if we are to trade globally and if we no longer have a fleet the freights and hires will go to other countries just like we used to have vast earnings from carrying the trade of others. This will add to the cost.

The way I see it much of our food comes from the EU and that requires a short journey by ferry type ships with trailers. If we are global we will need some bulk capacity or have to charter it.

If it is the world I recall before the Common Market there will need to be refrigerated capacity for meat, cheese, butter from New Zealand, Australia and Argentina. Likewise fruit from Australia, British Colombia, Oregon, South Africa. Wheat from Australia, Canada and USA. Maybe even minerals from Australia and South Africa etc etc...I mean it is everything really. Fertilisers, phosphates, ores..Sugar too as we will I suppose start buying it as before from Australia, South Africa, Brazil, West Indies,...So much of everything if we go global and are not EU centered.

Well gone are the days of P&O to and from Australia with bulkers and ships stuffed full, Blue Funnel Line, Blue Star Line...etc...Container lines have changed a lot of trade patterns but even so if you want to be global surely, you need a merchant fleet. But who wants that job today? There is as much cheap foreign labour at sea as there is in the fields of Lincolnshire.

There is much more to it than all this of course but if we go independent out of the EU it is how we will have to start thinking.

[Barrie Stevens]

Something like this I suppose? ....Those were the days! Click the link

https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=empire+trade+poster&id=2FE012F23697F21B542A898A21F7AEEA4A5513CB&FORM=IQFRBA

[P.K.]

Well, as totally expected, the Brexit negotiations are pretty much stalled.

The best that David 'Fall Guy' Davis can come up with is that the EU need to approach the talks "with more flexibility and imagination" which I believe is the most vacuous bullshit that I've ever heard and that includes posts on MF. Although I must admit I don't as a rule read the outporings of Mr Angry of Onchan due to their content and temporary nature.

The EU have made their position clear right from the off and it's pretty reasonable. Rights of citizens to be upheld by the ECJ because the Home Office is a bit of a shambles so they need recourse (impossible to deny that one), keeping the Irish border as it's always been and the UK paying what it has agreed to pay ie why should 27 nations provide funding that was agreed by 28.

Reminds me of Beachy Head......

[quilp]

[P.K.]

Which is all well and good unless you have a deadline of the 29th March 2019.

[woolley]

The more acrimonious the better in the short term. The cosier it is, the more the UK will pay and the UK knows this.

[P.K.]

1 hour ago, woolley said:

The more acrimonious the better in the short term. The cosier it is, the more the UK will pay and the UK knows this.

Sure but it's the long term outlook that's the important one imho.

I wonder if it will end up in a classic fudge where, say, there's a transitional period during which the UK pays it's dues in instalments or some such? Wouldn't surprise me although the reporting on the negotiations seems a bit sketchy to me.

[mojomonkey]

Neither side has clue what actually needs to be done, I'd be surprised if anyone truly did.

[manxman1980]

So what happens if the UK Government decides to say, "bugger this, it's too difficult, we will just stay" and did so using the executive powers that those in favour of leaving the EU were so keen on them having?  

Riots in the streets?  Certainly a call for a new Government.  

Of course I post this tongue in cheek, but are we realistically likely to meet the deadlines that have been set?  What happens if both parties cannot reach an agreement?