So the UK is finished says Theresa Mayhem

[woody2]

its the uk's gross contribution for 2014 as used in the referendum ...

if you start removing things, the % of eu budget goes up for the uk due to others getting back more than they put in....

[John Wright]

OK Manximus

John, I hope that we can at least have a serious discussion about this even if we clearly disagree..

1. The turnout of registered voters was 72.21% - in this age of voter apathy that is not (as you claim) low turn out - it is a massive turn out! 72.21%!

A. That statistic has to be looked at against a number of background factors. Historically voter registration was close to 100%. Also voter turn out has been fallling for years. It used to be 80+%. So 72.21% of a lowered base is not a high figure really

2. 33,577,342 people voted - that is MORE THAN HALF of the total population including children! (65.64 Million UK 2016) That is the equivalent of  45,000 people turning out to vote on the IOM - Low turn out - really?

A. Same point as above. The margin was small

3. 17,410,742 People voted leave - That is more votes than the UK population has ever voted for anything  in the history of the UK. More than in any General election, more than in any other referendum, and more than voted to join the EU in the first place!

A. But, referenda apart there as never been an either or General Election. It's rare since WW for the party which wins most seats, even in landslide years, to have a majority of the popular vote.

Also, there was never an in referendum when uk joined.

4. Of the 632 constituencies (local councils actually) only 231 voted remain - 401 voted leave.

A. All that shows is the different types of constituencies and their demographics 

5. 207 X The Total Population of the Isle of Man voted 'Leave' - Think about that, 207 X Total IOM population is a fair number to all be called 'stupid' (according to some on here ).

A. I didn't mention stupid. Some will have wanted to leave, others had a political agenda, I think that many were taken in by lavish, irresponsible promises which turned out to be untrue, and did not have the real facts at their fingertips.

190 x IoM population voted to stay. It's a meaningless figure.

The referendum was a con, designed to save the Tories from themselves. I'm not actually in favour of referenda on complicated issues. It's oxymoron in a representative democracy. And the concepts too hard for most voters to grasp, but that doesn't make them stupid.

No one was told what leaving meant, in practical terms. Of course visceral gut reaction or instinct can be important  in voter choice. 

I think the rerendum questions were poorly framed. Offering to give notice and then an in out referendum proper once terms were negotiated would have been a better and fairer option.

There will be squeals of anguish and changes of mind when free roaming and emergency health care ends, visas are introduced, queues at borders get worse, the pound buys fewer euros etc. That's when they'll realise they've been cheated.

The 2016 net weekly contribution was £155 million, nowhere like £350 million.

Manximus, your post raised points way outside my original post. I've tried to show why the figures you use may be raw, but cannot be cited without context.

A bit like when the two W's say the eu can't afford to lose the Uk as it's 18% of its budget. You can correctly say that, but in context that 18% has to then have shaved off the rebate and eu expenditure in UK. That's why, when correctly calculated, the shortfall to be made up is comparatively small, 2.5 or 3%

 

Edited November 3, 2017 by John Wright

[P.K.]

4 hours ago, woolley said:

If you'd been around in 1945 you could have gone in to accept the German surrender from Jodl. You'd have come out having surrendered to him.

Very droll Woolster. What a wag.

[quilp]

4 minutes ago, John Wright said:

There will be squeals of anguish and changes of mind when free roaming and emergency health care ends, visas are introduced, queues at borders get worse, the pound buys fewer euros etc. That's when they'll realise they've been cheated.

You make it sound so dramatic! A few disgruntled holidayers then?

And the unhealthy. Insurers will carry this. 

A small price to pay. 

[woolley]

Aside from the fact that none of that will happen.

[John Wright]

4 minutes ago, quilp said:

You make it sound so dramatic! A few disgruntled holidayers then?

And the unhealthy. Insurers will carry this. 

A small price to pay. 

It's the practical everyday experience which influences politics, even if it's negligible in the grand scheme

[P.K.]

3 minutes ago, quilp said:

You make it sound so dramatic! A few disgruntled holidayers then?

And the unhealthy. Insurers will carry this. 

A small price to pay. 

Two families I know of living in the EU are selling up.

That's their retirement dream well and truly fucked over....

[quilp]

Unfortunate. They've probably been listening to doom-laden and imprecise commentary.

It'll be swings and roundabouts everywhere. You win some, you lose some...

[Manximus Aururaneus]

12 minutes ago, John Wright said:

OK Manximus

John, I hope that we can at least have a serious discussion about this even if we clearly disagree..

1. The turnout of registered voters was 72.21% - in this age of voter apathy that is not (as you claim) low turn out - it is a massive turn out! 72.21%!

A. That statistic has to be looked at against a number of background factors. Historically voter registration was close to 100%. Also voter turn out has been fallling for years. It used to be 80+%. So 72.21% of a lowered base is not a high figure really

2. 33,577,342 people voted - that is MORE THAN HALF of the total population including children! (65.64 Million UK 2016) That is the equivalent of  45,000 people turning out to vote on the IOM - Low turn out - really?

A. Same point as above. The margin was small

3. 17,410,742 People voted leave - That is more votes than the UK population has ever voted for anything  in the history of the UK. More than in any General election, more than in any other referendum, and more than voted to join the EU in the first place!

A. But, referenda apart there as never been an either or General Election. It's rare since WW for the party which wins most seats, even in landslide years, to have a majority of the popular vote.

Also, there was never an in referendum when uk joined.

4. Of the 632 constituencies (local councils actually) only 231 voted remain - 401 voted leave.

A. All that shows is the different types of constituencies and their demographics 

5. 207 X The Total Population of the Isle of Man voted 'Leave' - Think about that, 207 X Total IOM population is a fair number to all be called 'stupid' (according to some on here ).

A. I didn't mention stupid. Some will have wanted to leave, others had a political agenda, I think that many were taken in by lavish, irresponsible promises which turned out to be untrue, and did not have the real facts at their fingertips.

190 x IoM population voted to stay. It's a meaningless figure.

The referendum was a con, designed to save the Tories from themselves. I'm not actually in favour of referenda on complicated issues. It's oxymoron in a representative democracy. And the concepts too hard for most voters to grasp, but that doesn't make them stupid.

No one was told what leaving meant, in practical terms. Of course visceral gut reaction or instinct can be important  in voter choice. 

I think the rerendum questions were poorly framed. Offering to give notice and then an in out referendum proper once terms were negotiated would have been a better and fairer option.

There will be squeals of anguish and changes of mind when free roaming and emergency health care ends, visas are introduced, queues at borders get worse, the pound buys fewer euros etc. That's when they'll realise they've been cheated.

1. No you did not call leavers stupid John ( and I never said that you did) it was somebody else that I was referring to. Happy to confirm.

2. You did however state low turn out - it was no such thing, it was 72.21% - you said you wanted correct statistics, that is the correct statistic.

3. The referendum was promised in the Conservative manifesto, the general population voted them into government on that manifesto, the promise was kept,  a 'con' as you state would have been to renege on the manifesto promise. The fact that you personally are 'not in favour' does not make it a 'con' - just something that you do not favour.

4. £9 million of UK taxpayer money was used to send every household an explanatory leaflet - it clearly stated that leaving meant leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union.

5. The referendum question was formulated by the Electoral Commission (as per norm) - No UK party complained about the wording of the question to the EC (As they are entitled to so do and in fact did do in the Scottish referendum where they won changes to the question).

6. EH101 Card scheme (or equivalent) is to be continued as confirmed by both M. Barnier and D. Davis following the last round of talks.

I have no problem with people opposing the decision, but scare-mongering and wanting a re-run because you lost is neither democratic nor constructive.

[P.K.]

3 minutes ago, quilp said:

Unfortunate. They've probably been listening to doom-laden and imprecise commentary.

It'll be swings and roundabouts everywhere. You win some, you lose some...

Personally I think they should wait it out a bit.

The danger with that being the type of deal, if there is one, could play havoc with ex-pat property values.

Damned if you do.....

[quilp]

19 minutes ago, John Wright said:

It's the practical everyday experience which influences politics, even if it's negligible in the grand scheme

Negligible. Yes, and I can see the types who feel they'll be most affected and how.

Sniffling affluenza... 

[woolley]

24 minutes ago, P.K. said:

Two families I know of living in the EU are selling up.

That's their retirement dream well and truly fucked over....

Christ. I'm not surprised if they listen to you. I have property in France and Spain. I'm not selling. I know ex-pats in 6 different EU countries. They are not selling. I know EU citizens here and in the UK. They are going nowhere either. It's all bollocks.

[RIchard Britten]

1 minute ago, woolley said:

I know ex-pats in 6 different EU countries.

You mean immigrants?

[Manximus Aururaneus]

An extension to the EH101 Health scheme (or equivalent) was agreed at the last round of talks as confirmed by both Barnier and Davis.

[pongo]

4 minutes ago, Manximus Aururaneus said:

No you did not call leavers stupid John ( and I never said that you did) it was somebody else that I was referring to.

I called the process 'stupid' and said that I believe Brexit to be a 'stupid' mistake. I said that nobody sensible supports it. It seems clear to me that nobody sensible would have voted for the current chaos and uncertainty.

In response you accused me of  "trying to deceive people". So stop pretending to occupy the polite moral high ground.

8 minutes ago, Manximus Aururaneus said:

wanting a re-run because you lost is neither democratic nor constructive.

As I pointed out to you previously. Farage and UKIP (who were behind much of the propaganda which resulted in the vote) had said before the vote that if Remain won they would be pushing for another referendum. John also made the point very well that the democracy doesn't work how you imagine it. People are not expected or supposed to get behind a thing they do not support. That is not the democratic political tradition.