So the UK is finished says Theresa Mayhem

[pongo]

I've more or less lost faith in Mrs May, Woody. But I still put more store in what she says than your ramblings and half truths.

[woody2]

its a eu proposal ffs

[pongo]

1 minute ago, woody2 said:

its a eu proposal ffs

It's a separate issue. It will be for future trading partners to decide. Not the EU.

[woody2]

1 hour ago, pongo said:

It's a separate issue. It will be for future trading partners to decide. Not the EU.

its not, the uk has published draft legislation on trade after its been agreed with the eu...

eu-uk trade talks have been going on for months, same with the usa......

if your so clever how is the uk and eu able to agree the irish border before a trade deal is done?

[pongo]

56 minutes ago, woody2 said:

its not, the uk has published draft legislation on trade after its been agreed with the eu...

eu-uk trade talks have been going on for months, same with the usa......

if your so clever how is the uk and eu able to agree the irish border before a trade deal is done?

These are different issues. The simple fact, the thing you seem to be disputing, is that when the UK leaves the EU all existing trade agreements, with countries outside of the EU, will have to be renegotiated or agreed  from scratch. Because Britain has no trade agreements except as an EU member.

The UK is hoping that, initially at least, existing EU agreements can be duplicated. But it will be for all of those other countries to individually decide whether or not they are happy with that arrangement. It will be between the UK and each of those countries separately. Though the shape of those agreements will also likely depend on the extent of UK access to EU markets.

Liam Fox: Britain does not have capacity to strike trade deals now - Politico

On the separate issue of any US trade deal. Again - this will depend on any trade agreement with the EU. Agriculture will be a big issue - especially since the Irish border issue will only be settled if there are believable promises with respect to agricultural standards. And a huge proportion of farm output from the north goes to the Republic. Hence Gove making clear this week that GM restrictions will not be lifted. The EU, quite rightly, does not want US produce entering its markets via the UK. Or any relaxation of UK agricultural standards. Indeed UK agriculture will have to keep up with EU standards as those evolve over the years.

Any US deal will almost inevitably exclude agriculture, food and financial services. And can presumably only happen after the transition period (which will be the next major climb-down by the hard Brexit faction).  It’s going to be the mid 20s at the earliest before Britain leaves.

Edited November 29, 2017 by pongo

[Freggyragh]

Brexiter turns up to negotiations with an empty notebook and a smug grin. Six months later returns with his arse handed to him on a plate, a bill for £60B, no promises on trade, kicked out of city of culture project, financial and medical regulatory agencies removed with 1,000 well paid jobs, and not sure if he won’t have to tell his new DUP mates that if they ever want seats in a national parliament again they’ll be running for seats in the Dáil Éireann. Brexit loons call it ‘taking back control’, but the feral ones think relying on WTO rules alone is now the best course of action. Only one country is without any trade deal except WTO rules; Mauritania. Google Mauretania’s economy if you think that might be worth a try. 

[Freggyragh]

Of course, there will eventually be trade deals with the rest of the world. They’ll be lining up, and the British will take whatever terms they’re offered by the larger trading blocks, ie the blocks of rich nations that might have some interest in the financial ‘products’ and services the UK has to sell. 

[woody2]

8 hours ago, Freggyragh said:

Brexiter turns up to negotiations with an empty notebook and a smug grin. Six months later returns with his arse handed to him on a plate, a bill for £60B, no promises on trade, kicked out of city of culture project, financial and medical regulatory agencies removed with 1,000 well paid jobs, and not sure if he won’t have to tell his new DUP mates that if they ever want seats in a national parliament again they’ll be running for seats in the Dáil Éireann. Brexit loons call it ‘taking back control’, but the feral ones think relying on WTO rules alone is now the best course of action. Only one country is without any trade deal except WTO rules; Mauritania. Google Mauretania’s economy if you think that might be worth a try. 

are you on drugs.....

[woody2]

12 hours ago, pongo said:

These are different issues. The simple fact, the thing you seem to be disputing, is that when the UK leaves the EU all existing trade agreements, with countries outside of the EU, will have to be renegotiated or agreed  from scratch. Because Britain has no trade agreements except as an EU member.

The UK is hoping that, initially at least, existing EU agreements can be duplicated. But it will be for all of those other countries to individually decide whether or not they are happy with that arrangement. It will be between the UK and each of those countries separately. Though the shape of those agreements will also likely depend on the extent of UK access to EU markets.

Liam Fox: Britain does not have capacity to strike trade deals now - Politico

On the separate issue of any US trade deal. Again - this will depend on any trade agreement with the EU. Agriculture will be a big issue - especially since the Irish border issue will only be settled if there are believable promises with respect to agricultural standards. And a huge proportion of farm output from the north goes to the Republic. Hence Gove making clear this week that GM restrictions will not be lifted. The EU, quite rightly, does not want US produce entering its markets via the UK. Or any relaxation of UK agricultural standards. Indeed UK agriculture will have to keep up with EU standards as those evolve over the years.

Any US deal will almost inevitably exclude agriculture, food and financial services. And can presumably only happen after the transition period (which will be the next major climb-down by the hard Brexit faction).  It’s going to be the mid 20s at the earliest before Britain leaves.

what waffle

i notice you can't answer the irish question is this because the eu fooked up...

after exit thing will stay the same if a deal happens. as for usa food its already imported to the uk.....

[pongo]

Promises over UK agricultural standards will be a key part of breaking the deadlock re Ireland. British farming regulation will in effect continue to be determined by the EU. That means no to US GM and most US meat. And therefore no US trade deal which includes agriculture (not that any US trade deal is a realistic prospect in the next few years).

The Guardian has a smart piece about the utter failure of the govt’s approach to the Brexit process. Also confirmed by various pieces at The Telegraph. About how David Davis has been sidelined by No 10  since the EU ultimatum a few weeks ago. Having utterly failed to impress. In line with what Freggyragh describes above.

 Brexiters nowhere to be seen as UK raises white flag over EU divorce bill

Quote

When the time came to hoist the white flag, the cabinet’s swashbuckling Brexiters were nowhere to be seen. Instead, it was left to civil servants to hammer out the terms of Britain’s expensive retreat from the EU, settling a divorce bill that could pave the way for a wider exit agreement struck almost entirely on terms demanded by Brussels.

There will be many more compromises before some sort of limp Brexit, perhaps sometime in the mid 2020s. But this crappy govt will be long gone before then. And a second referendum may well kick the whole thing into touch.

Edited November 30, 2017 by pongo

[Bobbie Bobster]

+1 for BrexRef II

Also, from the Independent today, putting some estimates around the size of the "lost generation" of economic growth.

Economists estimate the cost of a "no deal" Brexit – in which Britain is forced to trade with the rest of the EU on the most basic World Trade Organisation terms – in terms of lost economic output at between 2.6 per cent (£50bn) and 6 per cent (£120bn) of GDP by 2020.

That's compared with a loss of between 1.3 per cent (£26bn) and 3.6 per cent (£72bn) of GDP if the UK secures a free trade deal.

By 2030 they put the cost of no deal as high as 9.5 per cent (£190bn) of GDP, versus 6.3 per cent (£126bn) of GDP with a free trade deal.

[Tarne]

Just out of curiosity Bobbie, you're putting what the UK might lose. In the interests of being balanced, what are the figures for what the EU might lose if it's a "no deal" brexit? 

[woody2]

57 minutes ago, Bobbie Bobster said:

+1 for BrexRef II

Also, from the Independent today, putting some estimates around the size of the "lost generation" of economic growth.

Economists estimate the cost of a "no deal" Brexit – in which Britain is forced to trade with the rest of the EU on the most basic World Trade Organisation terms – in terms of lost economic output at between 2.6 per cent (£50bn) and 6 per cent (£120bn) of GDP by 2020.

That's compared with a loss of between 1.3 per cent (£26bn) and 3.6 per cent (£72bn) of GDP if the UK secures a free trade deal.

By 2030 they put the cost of no deal as high as 9.5 per cent (£190bn) of GDP, versus 6.3 per cent (£126bn) of GDP with a free trade deal.

as the uk already do with the rest of the world its a bonus for the uk to deal with the eu under wto.....

the £49 billion per year the uk pays, this will go upto £59 billion from 2020 as the rebate runs out (£20 billion membership fee) so even with your doomongering the uk will be quids in.......

[Mr. Sausages]

We've had enough of experts like you woody.

[woody2]

4 minutes ago, Tarne said:

Just out of curiosity Bobbie, you're putting what the UK might lose. In the interests of being balanced, what are the figures for what the EU might lose if it's a "no deal" brexit? 

the failure of remoaners is to take the true cost of membership into consideration....

the impact on the uk-eu under wto isn't that big (see germany trading with the usa) its the impact on the eu that is massive......