So the UK is finished says Theresa Mayhem

[Manximus Aururaneus]

11 minutes ago, pongo said:

Then offset that against the jobs, food miles etc. And look at the way in which our markets across Europe have evolved. It's no surprise that the best fruit and veg, fish etc is still available today close to railway stations and not airports.

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Separately - it's all very well, these madcap and economically sociopathic ideas. Eg unilaterally abolishing tariffs and ****ing manufacturing for a laugh. Sure, over time, it would mean leading by example - and there might one day be equilibrium. But in the meanwhile, chaos. I can see why ideologically minded Brexiteers, blue-sky thinkers and whackos like Minford and Bootle are attracted to this as if it were an actually viable idea. It's revolutionary, devil-may-care and reckless. Fun to talk about - but you would be bonkers to actually do it.

Responsible politics and economics is much more about finding sensible comprises and agreement.

Presumably you call amending the rules in order that EU auditors can sign off 19 out of 20 years accounts (that they had previously refused to do) 'Responsible politics and economics' 

[pongo]

11 minutes ago, Manximus Aururaneus said:

Presumably you call amending the rules in order that EU auditors can sign off 19 out of 20 years accounts (that they had previously refused to do) 'Responsible politics and economics' 

I would have no idea why you presume that. I am not responsible for what you imagine.

I am eurosceptic. But I happen to believe that Brexit is the stupidest way possible of addressing the many issues. Britain will continue to trade in the EU's wake and will have no choice other than to conform to EU regulation in most areas. But will have no say and very much less influence. It's utterly b stream. Nor will leaving the EU shield us from any potential future turbulence.

It's a great pity that the sensible Conservative Party has been effectively taken over by UKIP. It's the mirror image of Labour and Momentum.

Edited December 2, 2017 by pongo

[Manximus Aururaneus]

13 minutes ago, pongo said:

I would have no idea why you presume that. I am not responsible for what you imagine.

I am eurosceptic. But I happen to believe that Brexit is the stupidest way possible of addressing the many issues. Britain will continue to trade in the EU's wake and will have no choice other than to conform to EU regulation in most areas. But will have no say and very much less influence. It's utterly b stream. Nor will leaving the EU shield us from any potential future turbulence.

It's a great pity that the sensible Conservative Party has been effectively taken over by UKIP. It's the mirror image of Labour and Momentum.

I don't see it panning out that way other than in the short term. I feel that the EU's power over the UK will have two Zeniths, one occurring about now and reaching into early 2018 (using Ireland as a trojan horse) and then a further one either side of March 2019 with the EU introducing last minute 'obstacles'.

Providing that the UK holds it's nerve, markets will hold together, everyone will start to relax a bit, and after that the importance of the EU to UK and vice-versa will naturally diminish over time with the UK pulling away year on year.

Remainers will not like that of course (and some would rather see the UK economy struggle just to prove a point) - but I have much more faith in the British people than I do in politicians to understand the real issues - There are an awful lot of free-market entrepreneurs in the UK, they just need to freedom to operate.

[woody2]

1 hour ago, mojomonkey said:

Would you advocate leaving it?

well according to pongo the uk isn't even a member......

[woody2]

42 minutes ago, pongo said:

I would have no idea why you presume that. I am not responsible for what you imagine.

I am eurosceptic. But I happen to believe that Brexit is the stupidest way possible of addressing the many issues. Britain will continue to trade in the EU's wake and will have no choice other than to conform to EU regulation in most areas. But will have no say and very much less influence. It's utterly b stream. Nor will leaving the EU shield us from any potential future turbulence.

It's a great pity that the sensible Conservative Party has been effectively taken over by UKIP. It's the mirror image of Labour and Momentum.

no it won't....

[mojomonkey]

1 minute ago, woody2 said:

well according to pongo the uk isn't even a member......

Not the question I asked, would you advocate leaving the WTO?

[pongo]

Just now, woody2 said:

well according to pongo the uk isn't even a member......

To be clear, I have never said this. It's something you invented.

[pongo]

2 minutes ago, woody2 said:

no it won't....

British industry and business will need  to conform to EU standards and practices (ie regulations) if it wishes to continue trading with the EU. Whole areas of legislation will effectively be decided in the EU. Agriculture being a clear example. That's going to be very important especially with respect to Ireland.

[woody2]

3 minutes ago, pongo said:

To be clear, I have never said this. It's something you invented.

yes i noticed you had edited your post after i pointed out you were wrong....

[pongo]

Just now, woody2 said:

yes i noticed you had edited your post after i pointed out you were wrong....

I may well have edited my post. But I have never claimed that the UK is not part of the WTO. It's something you have invented.

[woody2]

Just now, pongo said:

British industry and business will need  to conform to EU standards and practices (ie regulations) if it wishes to continue trading with the EU. Whole areas of legislation will effectively be decided in the EU. Agriculture being a clear example. That's going to be very important especially with respect to Ireland.

for exports, yes- just like you have to do with the rest of the world now, they can change the rules in the uk if they wish.....

[woody2]

1 minute ago, pongo said:

I may well have edited my post.

correct.....

[pongo]

39 minutes ago, Manximus Aururaneus said:

I don't see it panning out that way other than in the short term. I feel that the EU's power over the UK will have two Zeniths, one occurring about now and reaching into early 2018 (using Ireland as a trojan horse) and then a further one either side of March 2019 with the EU introducing last minute 'obstacles'.

Providing that the UK holds it's nerve, markets will hold together, everyone will start to relax a bit, and after that the importance of the EU to UK and vice-versa will naturally diminish over time with the UK pulling away year on year.

Remainers will not like that of course (and some would rather see the UK economy struggle just to prove a point) - but I have much more faith in the British people than I do in politicians to understand the real issues - There are an awful lot of free-market entrepreneurs in the UK, they just need to freedom to operate.

 

It was interesting listening to Woody the other day. Like you he is very bullish about Brexit. But he seems to not understand many of the issue or to deliberately ignore them (it's sometimes difficult to read him) .

Britain has no trade agreements with the rest of the world. Including all of the non EU countries. And he seemed to not understand that Britain also trades currently outside of the EU under many lesser bilateral agreements between the EU and other jurisdictions which cover specific areas of business and trade. Even where there is no full trade agreement.

According to the FT, After Brexit: the UK will need to renegotiate at least 759 treaties. According to Liam Fox, Britain does not have capacity to strike trade deals now. And any future deals with the rest of the world will be contingent on the deal which Britain makes (or doesn't) with its leading trading partner, the EU. Hence, for example, in some areas a trade deal with one country will depend on the shape of a trade deal with another. Eg the US and the EU re agriculture - a deal with one almost certainly excludes the possibility of a deal with the other. And the US is very unlikely to make a deal with the UK which includes financial services (the UK is the world's leading exporter of financial services).

Brexit: UK insurers push for transition deal to preserve London as global hub after EU departure.

Assuming that sense prevails and that there is a significantly adequate transition period, the UK is not going to effectively be leaving the EU until long after 2019. Perhaps the mid-20s at the earliest. Meantime there can be no trade deals with anyone else.

And in the meanwhile, uncertainty. 

Edited December 2, 2017 by pongo

[Tarne]

Woody subscribes to a certain school of business - if you're bullheaded enough and just ignore everything, eventually you'll get your way. It can be a very effective policy, as it forces other people that want to deal with you to conform to your terms - or completely ineffective as they just don't deal with you. (Forum equivalent of trying to talk sense into him, rather than just ignoring him) 

Another analogy would be that it is safer to put the tard in their own room rather than leave it with the knives.

[pongo]