woody2 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 24 minutes ago, mojomonkey said: Not the question I asked, would you advocate leaving the WTO? not at the moment as they would come down heavy on the eu members (a fair few wto members don't like the eu) if the eu treat the uk bad.... it also shows how fake all the eu drama is..... not forgetting the eu can't be seen to give the uk a bad deal for leaving a treaty otherwise the un comes into play..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 (edited) 3 minutes ago, woody2 said: the eu can't be seen to give the uk a bad deal for leaving a treaty otherwise the un comes into play..... Previously you have said that the EU will be desperate for a full free trade agreement. So why would this even be an issue (ignoring its dubious provenance) ? Edited December 2, 2017 by pongo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, Tarne said: Woody subscribes to a certain school of business - if you're bullheaded enough and just ignore everything, eventually you'll get your way. It can be a very effective policy, as it forces other people that want to deal with you to conform to your terms - or completely ineffective as they just don't deal with you. (Forum equivalent of trying to talk sense into him, rather than just ignoring him) Another analogy would be that it is safer to put the tard in their own room rather than leave it with the knives. i've never ignored anything Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, pongo said: Previously you have said that the EU will be desperate for a full free trade agreement. So why would this even be an issue (ignoring its dubious provenance) ? germany have said they want a free trade agreement..... i just don't fall for all the eu drama..... if the eu move onto trade without firm agreement then the last 18 months have been fakenews (i am not saying talks will move onto future arrangements in december)...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 (edited) 12 minutes ago, woody2 said: i just don't fall for all the eu drama..... if the eu move onto trade without firm agreement then the last 18 months have been fakenews (i am not saying talks will move onto future arrangements in december)...... So far Britain has rolled back on most of the hard - Brexiteer's original red line positions. Most significantly Britain's refusal to accept what our EU partners originally requested with respect to outstanding and future payments - ie that there should be agreement around how to calculate future payments - rather than specific minimum numbers. Over this period the hard Brexiteer's position and therefore Britain's position has variously been that no money was due, that the EU could "whistle for it" or that the EU should present an itemised bill. At the last minute, following a final EU ultimatum, David Davis was sidelined and the Civil Service was drafted in to sort out the mess. Most of the drama has been on the British side so far. The next compromises will be around EU agriculture policy, the Irish border issues and the transitional period. Edited December 2, 2017 by pongo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manximus Aururaneus Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 (edited) 30 minutes ago, pongo said: Previously you have said that the EU will be desperate for a full free trade agreement. So why would this even be an issue (ignoring its dubious provenance) ? Markets, not politics, will eventually win out (they always do). The Political bluff currently being played out (especially but not exclusively by the EU) is part of the great pantomime to show that politicians are important and that, in particular, Britain cannot be seen to massively benefit from Brexit. That is fine as far as it goes. But if the EU overplays this hand (which it is very close to doing) then other market forces, as yet not in play, will start to operate. I'll give an example; One single German car company, Volkswagen AG (Porche AG) produces Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda and Volkswagen Ducati MAN, Scania, and Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles. The company is highly dependent on the UK, not just for sales as most people state, but also it's supply chain (ditto BMW). VW Group, having suffered a 40% stock price drop before starting to to emerge from the emissions scandal, is in no mood for another massive business impact - especially not a self-inflicted one just to satisfy the ego of Brussels' unelected politicians. What do you think that the Qatari investment fund (owners of almost 15% of VW Group stock) are going to have to say to Merkle should their massive investment start to fall just so that Brussels can make a political statement? Well I can tell you that it will not be polite! There is a game being played at the moment, and if you want proof that that is the case, you only have to look at Brussels' detailed plans for a massive drop in income, post those plans up here, if you can find them that is. Edited December 2, 2017 by Manximus Aururaneus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Something around 1/5th of German manufactured cars are sold in the UK with sales worth around €7bn. A 2% drop in sales (the predicted outcome of Britain leaving the single market would be significant) but not devastating. The bigger issue for Britain would be the possibility of German manufacturing pulling out of the UK. There is also the fact that almost 60% of UK manufactured vehicles go to the EU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, pongo said: So far Britain has rolled back on most of the hard - Brexiteer's original red line positions. Most significantly Britain's refusal to accept what our EU partners originally requested with respect to outstanding and future payments - ie that there should be agreement around how to calculate future payments - rather than specific minimum numbers. Over this period the hard Brexiteer's position and therefore Britain's position has variously been that no money was due, that the EU could "whistle for it" or that the EU should present an itemised bill. At the last minute, following a final EU ultimatum, David Davis was sidelined and the Civil Service was drafted in to sort out the mess. Most of the drama has been on the British side so far. The next compromises will be around EU agriculture policy, the Irish border issues and the transitional period. eh? both the eu and uk say no deal has yet been done... the uk has said from day one it will pay what it owes but not a penny more..... it could still all end in tears........ .....for the eu....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, pongo said: Something around 1/5th of German manufactured cars are sold in the UK with sales worth around €7bn. A 2% drop in sales (the predicted outcome of Britain leaving the single market would be significant) but not devastating. The bigger issue for Britain would be the possibility of German manufacturing pulling out of the UK. There is also the fact that almost 60% of UK manufactured vehicles go to the EU. wouldn't that be 20%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manximus Aururaneus Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 17 hours ago, pongo said: Something around 1/5th of German manufactured cars are sold in the UK with sales worth around €7bn. A 2% drop in sales (the predicted outcome of Britain leaving the single market would be significant) but not devastating. The bigger issue for Britain would be the possibility of German manufacturing pulling out of the UK. There is also the fact that almost 60% of UK manufactured vehicles go to the EU. How about a 100% drop in EU car sales - until there is a fair, equitable, deal in return? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Manximus Aururaneus said: How about a 100% drop in EU car sales - until there is a fair, equitable, deal in return? Starting a trade war by blocking imports from our major export market would surely be rather stupid. And how do you square that with your wish to unilaterally abolish tariffs? Unilaterally abolishing tariffs, what Minford is arguing for, means abolishing tariffs whether or not setting such a bold example would be reciprocated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mojomonkey Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Manximus Aururaneus said: How about a 100% drop in EU car sales - until there is a fair, equitable, deal in return? https://www.theaa.com/car-buying/cars-made-in-britain Doesn't leave a lot of options for the average Joe wanting to buy a car. The biggest selling car in the UK, the Ford Fiesta, was last made in the UK in 2002. The second biggest selling car, the VW Golf, has never been made in the UK. The third biggest selling, the Nissan Qashqai, is made in The UK. Personally, I live in Germany but drive a car made in the UK, so I'm doing my bit. Edited December 3, 2017 by mojomonkey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manximus Aururaneus Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, pongo said: Starting a trade war by blocking imports from our major export market would surely be rather stupid. And how do you square that with your wish to unilaterally abolish tariffs? Unilaterally abolishing tariffs, what Minford is arguing for, means abolishing tariffs whether or not setting such a bold example would be reciprocated. Nowhere have I suggested 'starting a trade war' - what I have suggested, is a reaction to EU (and Irish) blackmail. You seem to feel that we have to play softball as a reaction to hardball - therein lies real stupidity. Ireland counts on the the UK for 50% (yes 50% not 2%) of it's trade. The vast majority of the remainder of Irish trade passes through UK en-route to EU - and yet we are meant to concede to the Irish Taoiseach demands that Britain stays in the Single market and Customs union because that's what best suits Ireland! . If they are sensible they will want a fair equitable trade deal - but if they want to issue threats, time to bring out the bat and focus some minds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mojomonkey Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 25 minutes ago, Manximus Aururaneus said: How about a 100% drop in EU car sales - until there is a fair, equitable, deal in return? Don't you think such action would start a trade war, would be awfully naive to think it wouldn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, mojomonkey said: Don't you think such action would start a trade war, would be awfully naive to think it wouldn't. can germany cope with that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.