woody2 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 juncker is leaving soon, he doesn't mention the 153 billion the eu will owe the uk.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Re import/export with weaker pound: It's not that simple. It depends how much value is added within the UK economy and the margins involved. For instance, if the imported element was only 5% of the value of the finished product then the exchange rate is likely to have a positive impact on export volumes, whereas if the imported element was 90% it would be a negative. With big ticket items like vehicles the value added is high. I don't think there is any prospect of the UK government either seeking such an arrangement on free movement or accepting one if offered. They will not believe that either the public or the Tory party itself would wear it. It is one of the red line principles of being in the EU which have led to a loss of sovereignty and on that basis control has to revert to the UK. I don't subscribe to "hard Brexit" and "soft Brexit", incidentally. It's like degrees of pregnancy. There is only "in the EU" with free movement et al or, "Brexit" which is outside. Half in and half out would be an ongoing running sore. I wouldn't overestimate the strength of the centre in Brussels as they are clearly in retreat. They may want tariffs pour encourager les autres as you say, but ranged against them will be very powerful vested interests all over the continent, not least in Germany, who will want to have as few restrictions as possible. Follow the money. National governments will also have an eye to which way the wind is blowing with their voters who include exporters and their employees. I would not be at all surprised to see the likes of Juncker and Tusk totally bypassed in the not too distant future as "their" EU is rejected. I don't discount the possibility of a totally new relationship based purely on trade among totally independent and sovereign nations emerging in Europe in the medium term. That would be a good result. Europe has brought its ills on itself through this megastate project. Mostly I agree. Yesterday the missus bought a new car. Another Beetle Cab complete with Gerbera. Dear me! Sure it's just a Golf with pretty bodywork. Made on the cheep in Brazil BUT it has to be imported to the Fatherland prior to being shipped to the UK. Errrr why? With Brexit looming we thought it was the right decision to make now. Thanks for forcing our hand you idiots! I do not agree with your take on GM Ellesmere / Luton. With them having to source more and more components from elsewhere the manufacturing costs were rising. Eventually they would probably be no longer economically viable. However it's a fact of life that Brexit has almost certainly sounded the death knell. Markets hate uncertainty. Well guess what...? Sure follow the money has always been a wise move. Unfortunately if the money ups sticks and moves from the UK back into the EU then we are really really fucked. Anyone can pontificate on that one pretty much forever. Time will tell all. So imho guesswork prior to Brexit is just so much hot air. But the UK imports so much there's no prize for guessing that stuff is going to get more expensive..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 But the UK imports so much there's no prize for guessing that stuff is going to get more expensive..... In the short term, sure, and maybe more in the coming year or so but don't forget that all we are getting at the moment is downside. There are no future benefits yet being priced in to the exchange rates. Also remember that the euro is only defying gravity with massive intervention. In reality it is a basket case that must ultimately fail so it will decline before that happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 But the UK imports so much there's no prize for guessing that stuff is going to get more expensive..... In the short term, sure, and maybe more in the coming year or so but don't forget that all we are getting at the moment is downside. There are no future benefits yet being priced in to the exchange rates. Also remember that the euro is only defying gravity with massive intervention. In reality it is a basket case that must ultimately fail so it will decline before that happens. Pure guesswork. None of which will help the folks working for GM. A sign of things to come methinks.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 But nothing to do with Brexit. Which nicely completes the full circle where we came in............ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 But nothing to do with Brexit. Which nicely completes the full circle where we came in............ BS. They might have had a chance before the xenophobic thick as pigshit Daily Wail reading Little Englanders voted in the referendum. But now they're doomed to the inevitable. Anyone who has been made redundant will hope not. But frankly I don't see any other outcome. Who do you want to hold your £20? I would probably agree to anyone but quilp. Do you think the lovely Mrs Bees would be stakeholder? Let's just hope the PSA deal doesn't go ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 What's the £20 about? I'd certainly rather hold £20 than €20. "xenophobic thick as pigshit Daily Wail reading Little Englanders voted in the referendum." Really? Have you not managed to see beyond that yet? Not managed to see the EU for what it is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quilp Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 It's PK's contribution to satire, don't you know. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 It's PK's contribution to satire, don't you know. Well I did wonder. But he seems an intelligent chap if a bit misguided. You'd think he'd come up with something a bit more imaginative if he's just trying to bait us? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 They might have had a chance before the xenophobic thick as pigshit Daily Wail reading Little Englanders voted in the referendum. thats you that is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 We are now in the era of every negative, perceived or real, being attributed to Brexit. Sad really. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmanx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 We are now in the era of every negative, perceived or real, being attributed to Brexit. Sad really. Well as soon as some concrete positives come out if... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 We are now in the era of every negative, perceived or real, being attributed to Brexit. Sad really. Well as soon as some concrete positives come out if... Typical razor sharp intellect as usual... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmanx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 We are now in the era of every negative, perceived or real, being attributed to Brexit. Sad really. Well as soon as some concrete positives come out if... Typical razor sharp intellect as usual... Well maybe if you list some of the verified postivies rather than the stock answer of "we'll have to see wont we"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 We are now in the era of every negative, perceived or real, being attributed to Brexit. Sad really. Well as soon as some concrete positives come out if... Typical razor sharp intellect as usual... Well maybe if you list some of the verified postivies rather than the stock answer of "we'll have to see wont we"... You do understand that not everything in life has to be put into little boxes marked 'positive' or 'negative.' When you grow up you'll come to realise that a little better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.