So the UK is finished says Theresa Mayhem

[woolley]

1 minute ago, RIchard Britten said:

"Liberals"

And the "right" have been doing what for decades?  Practicing their finest gammon faces?  Sitting on their laurels?

Waiting for a chance to swim against the tide of despondency, I suppose.

[P.K.]

30 minutes ago, woolley said:

Do they? Which facts are these? Official voting returns are not broken down by demographic.

Yes they can be.

Way back when I posted them up. For example the East of England voted strongly Brexit and a lot of coffin dodgers live there. Exit polls broke down the voting pattern by age group and so forth.

You can bang on and on about "official facts" and go down other blind alleys but you know as well as everyone else what happened.

End of.

[P.K.]

36 minutes ago, woolley said:

So that's settled then, and the UK can rule itself into the bargain. We'll wait for your apology as all becomes clear.

Fine by me.

As long as it's reciprocated of course....

The right wing tory party apologising.

Hell will freeze over before that happens.

ETA - the UK "ruling itself" will be declared null and void at the first time regulations for a trade deal are forced upon the UK....

Edited June 19, 2018 by P.K.

[woolley]

1 minute ago, P.K. said:

Yes they can be.

Way back when I posted them up. For example the East of England voted strongly Brexit and a lot of coffin dodgers live there. Exit polls broke down the voting pattern by age group and so forth.

You can bang on and on about "official facts" and go down other blind alleys but you know as well as everyone else what happened.

End of.

Not "end of".

Exit polls = opinion not fact.

[woolley]

1 minute ago, P.K. said:

Fine by me.

As long as it's reciprocated of course....

The right wing tory party apologising.

Hell will freeze over before that happens....

 

OK. So long as you are not accusing me of belonging to the Tories. See you back here in 2040.

[woolley]

4 minutes ago, P.K. said:

Fine by me.

As long as it's reciprocated of course....

The right wing tory party apologising.

Hell will freeze over before that happens.

ETA - the UK "ruling itself" will be declared null and void at the first time regulations for a trade deal are forced upon the UK....

No it won't because any agreement to which the UK is party will be agreed by........................... the UK.

[P.K.]

2 minutes ago, woolley said:

Not "end of".

Exit polls = opinion not fact.

Talk about pissing in the wind.

The correlation was VERY clear. But, of course, I understand why you dare not concede the point.....

Barbel to catch. Had a 7-pounder this am. Quality and a lovely looking fish.

[P.K.]

2 minutes ago, woolley said:

No it won't because any agreement to which the UK is party will be agreed by........................... the UK.

So the UK will agree to trade regulations, just like they do with the EU, only without the EU bargaining power.

Jeeeeze....

 

[woolley]

20 minutes ago, P.K. said:

 EU bargaining power.

Jeeeeze....

 

There is not a country in the world that does not want a trade deal with the UK which is one of the major economies on the planet. Project Fear strikes again. "We can't do it. It's all too difficult. We are total shit."

Edited June 19, 2018 by woolley

[quilp]

2 hours ago, P.K. said:

Tell you what, you go on believing Johnson, Gove, Fox, Rees-Mogg, Farage etc etc...

And I'll tell you what. I read and listen to both sides, and try to weigh things up. So I'm neither remoaner nor brexiter. Yet. What I haven't made the mistake of doing is posting unverified and unsubstantiated claims, in pompous, smug and frankly on occasion insulting fashion, that it'll be a disaster or milk and honey.

I think you assume a lot and think far too much of yourself. 

[paswt]

6 hours ago, P.K. said:

Face it, brexit is going to affect everyone adversley unless, say, you have an index linked income - like a pension!

As to the rest of your bs who have I denigrated/insulted/not that I care/whatever? The coffin dodgers perchance who voted for brexit?

You know, the "Black and White Minstrel Show" generation.

If you want to hold my interest you're going to have to do a lot better than this feigned outrage.....

there you go again , attempted cheap shots  

Believe me dear boy I have no desire to hold your interest , I regard you as  irrelevant .

Tell me does your political moral outrage laud the fact that your idea of fun is to drag a living thing out of it's environment with a hook through it's mouth  , not because you want to eat it but because you regard it as 'sport' ? 

[P.K.]

3 hours ago, paswt said:

Tell me does your political moral outrage laud the fact that your idea of fun is to drag a living thing out of it's environment with a hook through it's mouth  , not because you want to eat it but because you regard it as 'sport' ? 

If it voted brexit thats absolutely fine by me.

Oh sorry. I forgot I was irrelevant....

[P.K.]

3 hours ago, quilp said:

And I'll tell you what. I read and listen to both sides, and try to weigh things up. So I'm neither remoaner nor brexiter. Yet. What I haven't made the mistake of doing is posting unverified and unsubstantiated claims, in pompous, smug and frankly on occasion insulting fashion, that it'll be a disaster or milk and honey.

I think you assume a lot and think far too much of yourself. 

Not again!

I think you assume a lot and think far too much of yourself as well.....

Words are cheap.

I too hear both sides but only because it's pretty much impossible not too! Especially on here where the right-wing brexiteers are very much in the majority. However the advantage in knowledge clearly rests with Remain due to the experience of the status quo.

Brexit has people who want shot of Johnny Foreigner, people who want shot of EU regulations and also who want the ability to do trade deals with other nations on terms (regulations) agreed by both sides naturally. They view the loss of EU clout is worth it presumably because they think the UK can strike a better deal without the EU. Personally I think we will be bargaining from a position of weakness. Never a good place to start.

Most opinion pieces I read from the Brexit camp all agree there will be a period of pain. No-one knows how long that will be. After the pain there are no projections around growth etc. It's a big unknown.

Now personally I don't think the EU is too bad an organisation. Sure it needs to change and evolve to move with the times and that can only come from within.

The brexit vote will cause pain in the first instance, everyone seems to agree on that one. As I think it's not that bad being an EU country ANY pain is simply not worth it.......

 

[woolley]

I posted this on the parallel thread a few weeks ago:

Maybe we could now move on from the Brexit v Remain adversarial slugfest of the last two years and have a stab at how things might pan out. Anyone? I might have a go over the next week or so if I get a chance. In the future we can review and see who got the closest to reality.

Predictably, nobody actually took up the invitation of musing seriously on what might happen in the next few turbulent years, so I suppose I’ll have a crack at it first just for the sport and then wait for the rush of apoplexy or apathy. Rather than fire up the other thread again which appears to have become a duplicate of this one (and one is more than enough), I have moved it here, and offer the following analysis for debate beginning with the UK domestic background:

Politically in the UK, and importantly in the wider context of Brexit, I am convinced that the murmurings of an early general election are misplaced for the very good reason that no party wants one any time soon. Without exception, they all fear the result too much to rock the boat. Starting from the least important, according to the arithmetic, as usual the minor parties with single figures of seats don’t have any potential to make a difference. Into double figures of members, the DUP are not going to be in such a position of power again in the near future, if ever, so the status quo suits them fine for as long as possible. The SNP fear a continuation of the decline they suffered in 2017, so despite their loud protestations and theatrical walkouts, they want to continue with their unconscionable balancing act of playing London off against Brussels for pecuniary advantage and the devolution of further powers repatriated from the EU. Despicable crew that they are, they would also like to dream of another stab at independence which wouldn’t play well against a backdrop of declining fortunes at the ballot box. The Lib Dems poor showing last time must have been shocking to them as the only party standing on a pro EU platform. How on Earth could that happen to the self-appointed only sensible (Remain) party? They are no doubt perplexed, and they are not going to want to repeat the experience yet awhile, until they have worked out what on Earth could be wrong with the electorate.

What of Corbyn’s Labour? They talk of their eagerness for an early election, but the opposition simply has no option other than to do that. They can hardly run scared of a vote publicly, but their claimed ambitions ring hollow. Apart from the total fruitcakes in their ranks, privately they must know that they have probably reached the high water mark of achievability under this far-left leadership. They are badly split over Brexit, although in that respect they are only reflecting the electorate. Far worse for them is the uncomfortable truth that they also remain badly split over their leader. He gained a reprieve for losing better than he was expected to last year, but that is hardly a ringing endorsement or a harbinger of forthcoming victory. Rather than embracing Corbyn warmly after his “triumph”, the top team meekly slithered grudgingly back into line to await their next chance to unseat him. Labour have already promised just about everything to just about everybody, so it is difficult to see how they can repackage that impractical programme of policies any more attractively. Their main and most intractable problem is that there are too many swing voters who wisely don’t trust their competency and too many traditional Labour supporters who can’t stomach Corbyn under any circumstances. Still, they are always elected once in living memory, so there is that to look forward to when everyone who remembers the last time is dead.

Clearly, the Tories are not going to make waves either for the simple reason that nobody covets May’s job. At least, they don’t for now. They are seething at her for calling last year’s election and for the total ineptitude of the campaign and her own performance in it. She lost some of them their seats and the party its working majority. However, nobody wants to replace her while she is in something of a cleft stick. She has a lot of circles to square and too many people surrounding her wanting them squared in different ways. Her penance is to stay put and suck it up.

Ironically, perhaps the one person whose position might be bolstered by yet another early election is May herself. The British like tenacity in adversity and to be fair she has shown that, even if the adversity was largely self-inflicted. It is hard to imagine the Tories running such a poor campaign again and it is unthinkable that the new manifesto will once more be filled with truths that people just do not want to hear. Too much honesty at the hustings is very unwise. The next one will be full of platitudes and soothing words about savings protection for the elderly and no £100k asset limit before compulsorily selling a property to fund care. A continuation of the triple lock on pensions would also not come amiss as does this week’s promise to find further money to pour into the NHS, no matter how broken the model. Some targeted tax giveaways and even grants as incentives for the young to get a foot on the housing ladder could make an appearance to try to counter Labour/Momentum initiatives in this sphere.

Will she chance going to the country again then? No. Of course she won’t. She knows that she is not the luckiest of PMs and appears to be quite accident prone. It must rile her that unfortunate things just happen on her watch, a bit like the Gordon Broon experience. The lacklustre 2017 campaign and poor result when she hadn’t needed to call the election took their toll on her. The Grenfell Tower disaster reflected badly on the current government even though poor standards over decades were to blame. Likewise, the abortion referendum result in Ireland has focused the spotlight on the North and the DUP out of the blue, exactly when the PM could do without it. Even the misfortune of losing her voice during her speech to the conference ticks up on the deficit side. It all adds up to bad karma for a leader that will only intensify her natural aversion to risk. Still, I wouldn’t totally rule out an election in a couple of years called by May if things go her way, but it’s a very long shot.

For all of those reasons then, for all of the players in the drama, while it was born under a cloud of uncertainty with premature predictions of its demise even before last Christmas, I would not be at all surprised to see this Parliament survive its full term.

So against this tumultuous domestic political backdrop, where does this leave Brexit? I did post a little while ago that it might be a pragmatic plan to accept a semi-detached status from the European Union in the interim so that at least we don’t allow the backsliders on the Remain side to derail Brexit altogether. I think that this is a real danger that the Brexiteers in Parliament would do well to heed. In other words, it might be a case of Brexit Theresa May style, or no Brexit at all in the near future. After coming so close to shaking loose from Brussels, that would be a tragedy of epic proportions.  Perhaps it would be wise to put as much distance between Britain and the EU as we can now and consolidate later if necessary.

So much can still go wrong. Such a pity when we could have been out of the uncertainty, away and building the new reality by now had Article 50 been triggered by Cameron immediately.

The Remain fraternity would still have us believe the old head in the sand philosophy that Brexit is a leap in the dark whereas the EU stands for long term stability.  All we hear about is trade falling off a cliff, but trade will certainly continue undaunted and at least at the previous levels. It did so confounding all predictions after the referendum, and it will do so throughout the exit process. The wreckers do have another serious handicap besides the paucity of their argument. Their champions are people like Tony Blair (poison), Nick Clegg (nincompoop) and George Soros (Hungarian God of lucre who lives in America) and similar, whose pronouncements and entreaties nowadays tend to have the inverse effect on the population to that intended, along the lines that “if they support it then it must be bad for me”. Long may they support the EU in their self-delusion of wisdom and popularity, is all I can say as a supporter of Brexit.

I shouldn’t really need to repeat the point I’ve made on numerous occasions that this blind, unquestioning support for some kind of benign, force for good, EU in aspic is a travesty of the actual situation. If the EU enthusiasts are so seduced by “ever closer union” that they genuinely cannot see the dire systemic problems with “the project” by now, they are never going to. The brainwashing is seemingly complete and we appear to have close to half of the UK population under the spell. For the sake of our future generations, I hope fervently that it isn’t yet terminal. I am trying hard not to labour this aspect more than is necessary to illustrate the point, but look at the realities in Italy; look at Greece. Consider the unemployment and destitution right across Southern Europe wrought by the inflexibility of the single currency. It is fast becoming perceived as German economic hegemony in those countries, reasonably so, and that is a recipe for trouble not too far down the track. I have never yet read a thoughtful study by a Remain adherent as to how these insoluble problems might be addressed for the betterment of those suffering the consequences. Why is that? I wonder. The most they will sometimes extend to is “I know the EU isn’t perfect but…….” They seem to see it as a comfort blanket against the real world. Perhaps they believe that we can effect the change needed from within. If so, why has that not happened? We’ve had long enough to do it if it can be done. No. This argument is like a woman who stays married to an abuser because she thinks she can change him. Leopards never change their spots, and so it is with the European Union and its ways.

As if the eventual inevitable financial meltdown was not bad enough, EU members have to contend with the immigration calamity dumped on them by Merkel after she first threw open the gates to Germany before having a severe attack of cold feet and slamming them shut leaving hordes of incomers in transit and dumped on whoever had them on their territory when the music stopped. Now the EU helpfully insists that everyone “does their bit” by taking a share of the arrivals so recklessly invited by Merkel. German internal politics is now itself in turmoil as a consequence of this folly. Stand by for more overtures for “solidarity” and veiled threats arising from the forthcoming EU Summit. The Eastern European Visegrad Four states are tired of receiving diktat from Brussels on how they should conduct their internal affairs and are horrified by the prospect of accelerated and intensified integration as espoused by the grand designs of Juncker and Macron. Europe is a continent of disparate nations who want and need different things. It will always be so.

None of this adds up to prolonging the disingenuously claimed “70 years of peace” which in reality has nothing at all to do with the EU and everything to do with war-weariness, the cold war against a common enemy, NATO and the fear of nuclear weapons. In fact, the EU is shaping up to cause serious strife for its members in the 21^st century.

In wilfully ignoring this poisonous atmosphere on the continent, those Brits hankering for the “stability” of the EU therefore do themselves no favours and their country a great disservice. It’s as though they want the UK to do badly from the outcome of the current negotiations. How perverse is their vision? By trying to weaken and constantly decrying the British position on everything, they encourage Brussels to imagine a position of strength and they risk a “no deal” outcome from the brinkmanship. Perhaps this is the cunning plan. Possibly they envisage the collapse of the negotiations followed by a vote in Parliament with EU besotted MPs and peers carrying the majority, maybe even bringing down the government - country before party. Their script would see a consequent general election returning a slightly more EU friendly Parliament sufficient to claim a mandate from the public to overturn the June 2016 referendum and Britain returning to the EU fold, tail between legs, to face whatever would be the strictures of membership as negotiated between a country that made up its mind to leave but simply couldn’t hack it, and a pan-continental bloc with an ever increasing appetite for money and power drawn to the centre. This scenario would be smugly portrayed as a vindication of the European Union by Brussels and our own home grown Remainiacs and they would milk it for the long term and never let us forget it. Is that an acceptable place for Britain to be? Even to a staunch Remainer? Do you change your views when circumstances change?

 

I have said that anything could happen, from a no deal exit – fine – to a total retreat back into full membership – disaster – or anything in between. Having placed that caveat, I’ll stick my neck out just for fun. Mystic Woolley predicts the following:

There will be a deal. Britain will continue to pay reduced financial contributions for a FTD that will include goods and services and some projects that are worth being a part of. It will be a bespoke deal, not copied from a previous deal with another country. The EU will talk tough but in the end it will take the money as always, its voracious appetite for money being one of its many Achilles heels. The UK will be free to make its own trade deals, most of which will be signed quickly as they will mirror the ones with the EU. The UK will reduce tariffs on world food imports. Business invariably finds a way. It’s as inalienable as the property of water to find its own level.

There will be typical EU fudges over Ireland and Gibraltar despite the tough words now. Spain will play hard ball as ever about Gibraltar and may close the frontier once more. They will scream that there is no place for “colonies” in Europe in the 21^st century – whilst keeping very quiet about their “cities” in North Africa. Northern Ireland will continue to suck on the UK taxpayer teat which they are not going to give up for a very long time. The UK will ensure better access to UK markets for Gibraltar institutions to compensate for lost euro business.

There will be drama about getting the resulting deal through Parliament, but in the end enough Parliamentarians will see that the arrangements are workable and it is not worth risking the ire of their constituents by voting against the referendum result. The usual suspects will naturally demur but sanity will just about prevail. It really didn’t need to be like this!

Brexit will happen on schedule next March. There will be a transition period but it will not be as long as the one planned because the FTD will be relatively quickly phased in as in many respects it will mirror current practice. Tariff levels will be maintained at par with the EU for goods arriving in the UK bound for the EU as already proposed by the UK.

Freedom of movement of citizens will officially end and each country will have the final say on its own territory, but there will be lots of loopholes for UK and EU citizens to exploit. The number of EU workers will decline and the number of workers from the Commonwealth will increase.

The current UK Parliament will run its full term or very close to it.

May will lead the Tories into the next election and Corbyn, or somebody equally left will lead Labour. The result will be somewhat better for the Tories than 2017 and they will win a small overall majority similar to 2015 but with a slightly different geographical distribution including a continuation of the improvement in Scotland. Liberals may advance just a few seats at the expense of Labour and the SNP, but nothing that would indicate solid progress. Ever the bridesmaid.

Abroad, the EU 27 will be coerced into even closer political and economic entanglement over the next few years, some of them kicking and screaming. It will be a running sore and some of the East Europeans will fight it all the way. The budget, as ever, will be the source of much in-fighting. After Brexit, the contributors won’t want to pay more and the beneficiaries won’t want to receive less. The bureaucracy and its hangers on certainly won’t cut costs to assist. It's not in their DNA after all.

The woes of the eurozone will continue. Greece will eventually be ejected after several more bail outs. Italy may leave voluntarily because of the stranglehold the single currency gives Germany over their economy.

The euro as currently constituted but probably without Greece and maybe without Italy will last possibly another 8 to 10 years after which it will abandon the peripheral economies and retrench to a hard core of about 10 Western and Central European states. This will reverse the momentum for integration in Brussels and will be the beginning of the end of the EU as a political, legal and financial entity. That smaller monetary union will have to be even closer politically and fiscally disciplined otherwise cracks in the currency will re-emerge. Whether that could endure in the long term is questionable and it swings on whether populations are really prepared to live in a one fits all system for benefits that may become more and more chimeral as time passes by.

There will probably remain a rump free trade area EFTA style, which is all that the EU should ever have been before the elite harboured ideas above their station. It might even be worth joining such an organisation as a full member.

NATO will continue to be the guarantor of peace in Europe as it has been for almost 70 years.

Anyone else have a go?

[Freggyragh]

Are you ok mate?