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So the UK is finished says Theresa Mayhem


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9 minutes ago, Freggyragh said:

I’m thinking of retiring my Woody2 handle. I was only using it to make ardent brexiteers look credulous and unhinged. I think that’s quite obvious now without me keeping this little charade going. 

fantaboy!

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1 hour ago, RIchard Britten said:

Lost two..."second defeat"...

Come on, which years were the general elections, two of them alleged by you, which were lost by the Tories when Hague was the leader of the opposition.

Is he still bed sharing with Liam Fox?

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2 hours ago, quilp said:

Yeah yeah, I acquiesce. But you must admit to having this morbid, defeatist attitude to brexit which I can't get my head around. Can't understand why, unless it's just your politics overbearing your judgement... 

Not at all. Just pragmatic.

I think why should the EU give us anything? Our strongest hand was finance, which we had as an EU gateway, but without passporting that's a hand of jokers.

Populism is on the rise in the EU. Sophistry rules. Reduce a complex problem to simple snippets and then solve them with soundbites that will never work. Sticks in the memory though long enough to take it to the ballot box.

So playing strictly to the rules but giving nothing away a la Voltaire would be my EU tactical guess.

May met Merkel last week prior to the Chequers run it up a flagpole farrago and probably laid it out in broad brushstrokes. Merkel would have passed it on to the key players.

Wait and see mode.

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1 hour ago, Freggyragh said:

I’m thinking of retiring my Woody2 handle. I was only using it to make ardent brexiteers look credulous and unhinged. I think that’s quite obvious now without me keeping this little charade going. 

I hope so because my "Ignore" function seems to have stopped working as of yesterday.

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9 hours ago, P.K. said:

Watched John Cleese on Newsnight last night. He pointed out how once again the UK press has come bottom for " trust and belief" - no surprises there. He's decided to leave the UK as a consequence of the UK going to ratshit - https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p06df6qd

Can't fault the logic.....

the man who has only spent 2 weeks in the uk in the last year......

he's been a tax exile for years.....

#fakenews

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7 hours ago, woolley said:

It's a negotiation and a starting position in a negotiation is not the end result..

It depends on the strength and position of both sides. You try and negotiate with me about being able to sleep with my wife a couple of nights a week, I will say no. Negotiate further and the answer is still no not OK then how about every other Thursday. Any party who genuinely wishes to negotiate always has a minimum position. As PK says for the EU it is the four central tenets of which are "the free movement across borders of goods, services, finance and labour...."

They are very unlikely to agree to negotiate away one of these as in part it is what keeps the EU together. If you can have those without being in the EU or subscribing to the EU and paying lots of Wonga then the EU is at risk that others will leave. The UK appears to believe they are divisible. Only time will tell.

 

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3 hours ago, Lost Login said:

It depends on the strength and position of both sides. You try and negotiate with me about being able to sleep with my wife a couple of nights a week, I will say no. Negotiate further and the answer is still no not OK then how about every other Thursday. Any party who genuinely wishes to negotiate always has a minimum position. As PK says for the EU it is the four central tenets of which are "the free movement across borders of goods, services, finance and labour...."

They are very unlikely to agree to negotiate away one of these as in part it is what keeps the EU together. If you can have those without being in the EU or subscribing to the EU and paying lots of Wonga then the EU is at risk that others will leave. The UK appears to believe they are divisible. Only time will tell.

 

There are business interests in Europe who have an imperative to trade with the UK. It is a huge market for them. You are surely not suggesting that those people simply stop trading with the UK or incur massive tariffs? They have to come to an accommodation. As you say, time will tell.

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6 hours ago, woolley said:

There are business interests in Europe who have an imperative to trade with the UK. It is a huge market for them. You are surely not suggesting that those people simply stop trading with the UK or incur massive tariffs? They have to come to an accommodation. As you say, time will tell.

If just looking at goods if they are trading with businesses in the UK who sell back to the EU etc then the risk is that those companies will simply move there business to the EU e.g Airbus, Nissan etc

If they are businesses that sell directly to the UK then will those tariffs stop people in the UK buying as ultimately all tariffs are little more than a sales tax. If BMW's go up by 15% I doubt it will make much difference to sales figures. A lot will depend on competition but just looking at cars how many are genuinely manufactured in the UK. Yes the UK has large car assembly plants, but if all those parts attract a tariff the costs of cars will go up across the board and unless there are UK manufactured alternatives then as consumers we will have to accept and suffer the costs increases as there are few alternatives

I don't know the numbers but it is a simplistic assumption that trade tariffs will greatly affect those who sell to the UK, yes price increases will have some affect but how much will depend on if the consumer has any alternatives. There is also an argument in the long run it may also be good for some manufacturing in the UK. OK not for businesses that export but if you are a car company that basically only imports completed cars to the UK, if you want to compete with your rivals in the UK it maybe you have to start assembly in the UK as the tariffs/sales tax would only be on the car parts not on the full price of the car including labour. 

In all the Brexit discussion I have never read how much impact tariffs/sales tax are expected to have on businesses who sell to the UK in terms of how it would be expected to effect sales. If the UK consumers would still buy in similar numbers at the higher cost then those businesses probably don't care that much. It is not as if there is a UK alternative to Proseco which will not have tariffs/sales tax applying as the UK only produces a small amount of sparkling wine and it is not a cheap product.

Trump in his trade war is putting Tariffs on many imported goods. Will it stop or reduce imports, Potentially yes if consumers can switch to an alternative or locally produced product which is now cheaper, but if there is not and there is a strong demand for that product then imports will continue and the American consumer will pay.

 

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