woody2 Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 trade in goods with the eu is around 1% of gdp and is in decline...... may's "plan" ignores the other 99%...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 3 hours ago, Lost Login said: If just looking at goods if they are trading with businesses in the UK who sell back to the EU etc then the risk is that those companies will simply move there business to the EU e.g Airbus, Nissan etc If they are businesses that sell directly to the UK then will those tariffs stop people in the UK buying as ultimately all tariffs are little more than a sales tax. If BMW's go up by 15% I doubt it will make much difference to sales figures. A lot will depend on competition but just looking at cars how many are genuinely manufactured in the UK. Yes the UK has large car assembly plants, but if all those parts attract a tariff the costs of cars will go up across the board and unless there are UK manufactured alternatives then as consumers we will have to accept and suffer the costs increases as there are few alternatives I don't know the numbers but it is a simplistic assumption that trade tariffs will greatly affect those who sell to the UK, yes price increases will have some affect but how much will depend on if the consumer has any alternatives. There is also an argument in the long run it may also be good for some manufacturing in the UK. OK not for businesses that export but if you are a car company that basically only imports completed cars to the UK, if you want to compete with your rivals in the UK it maybe you have to start assembly in the UK as the tariffs/sales tax would only be on the car parts not on the full price of the car including labour. In all the Brexit discussion I have never read how much impact tariffs/sales tax are expected to have on businesses who sell to the UK in terms of how it would be expected to effect sales. If the UK consumers would still buy in similar numbers at the higher cost then those businesses probably don't care that much. It is not as if there is a UK alternative to Proseco which will not have tariffs/sales tax applying as the UK only produces a small amount of sparkling wine and it is not a cheap product. Trump in his trade war is putting Tariffs on many imported goods. Will it stop or reduce imports, Potentially yes if consumers can switch to an alternative or locally produced product which is now cheaper, but if there is not and there is a strong demand for that product then imports will continue and the American consumer will pay. To a degree, yes. But it is not this simple and it goes across every classification of imports and exports, not just consumer durables. If it was just as you say, and everyone kept buying and paying the higher price, the UK would do well on tariffs because our trade imbalance is towards imports. I don't see it coming to that though, as there are just too many powerful vested interests involved. They won't like it of course, but money is king every time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 It seems that we now have two White Papers. One by The Maybot and her realists and another by David Davis and the rest of the Looney Tunes. How does that look to the EU? Vot ze fuck...? Albion perfide!!! Jeeeeeze. Just anther clusterfuck on the Brexit road..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIchard Britten Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 3 hours ago, P.K. said: It seems that we now have two White Papers. One by The Maybot and her realists and another by David Davis and the rest of the Looney Tunes. How does that look to the EU? Vot ze fuck...? Albion perfide!!! Jeeeeeze. Just anther clusterfuck on the Brexit road..... link...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 Quote Rees Mogg on White Paper - “This is the greatest vassalage since King John paid homage to Phillip II at Le Goulet in 1200. This White paper has not needed age to turn yellow. " - just in case it wasn't clear, he says he won't vote for it 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barrie Stevens Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, woody2 said: I thought I was a bit far out! JRM and his Oxbridge ways...Most people will not get it at all....King John they think is or was a Jazz performer....Phillip II is a racing yacht....Le Goulet is French for "one ball" like Hitler....Vassalage is massaging petroleum jelly in areas where the sun don't shine..1200 some sort of sprinting event... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbie Bobster Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 1 hour ago, woody2 said: link...... Nice one! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bobbie Bobster said: Nice one! #pkfakenews Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Bobbie Bobster said: Nice one! My "Ignore" list seems to be working again. So Woody wants a link? Well what a joke THAT is bearing in mind the track record he/she/it has. Which is shit. They put up some of it on BBC Daily Politics to the consternation of the assembled tories. So you could always iplayer or google it. Anyway https://www.expr3uess.co.uk/news/politics/987876/brexit-latest-news-david-davis-white-paper-free-trade-agreements-theresa-may 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, P.K. said: So Woody wants a link? Well what a joke THAT is bearing in mind the track record he/she/it has. Which is shit. Funny. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 19 minutes ago, P.K. said: My "Ignore" list seems to be working again. So Woody wants a link? Well what a joke THAT is bearing in mind the track record he/she/it has. Which is shit. They put up some of it on BBC Daily Politics to the consternation of the assembled tories. So you could always iplayer or google it. Anyway https://www.expr3uess.co.uk/news/politics/987876/brexit-latest-news-david-davis-white-paper-free-trade-agreements-theresa-may so only one white paper then.... not the 2 you claimed..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quilp Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 2 hours ago, P.K. said: My "Ignore" list seems to be working again. So Woody wants a link? Well what a joke THAT is bearing in mind the track record he/she/it has. Which is shit... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freggyragh Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 12 hours ago, woody2 said: trade in goods with the eu is around 1% of gdp and is in decline...... may's "plan" ignores the other 99%...... Not sure what you mean by ‘trade’ - do you mean combined import / export? It’s a bit misleading, especially with the Rotterdam effect and manufacturing across EU borders, but just to break down part of that hilarious Woodyfact for you: U.K. GDP = £1,970,000,000,000 UK total exports to EU = £274,000,000,000 = 13.9% of U.K. GDP UK services exports to EU are 32% of total exports, so I’ll knock that off (you don’t seem bothered at all about services, which can mostly up-sticks and move to Dublin / Paris /Frankfurt within weeks anyway), so we can say UK outward trade in goods = £186,320,000,000, which is approximately 9.5% of the UKs GDP. Exports to the US = £99.5B, Russia = £5.3B, Saudi Arabia, Iran & other Gulf States £27.1B, China = £16.1B (major economies without FTor extensive TRQ deals with the EU). Total = £148B, = 7.5%. So, the real situation is this: For Brexit to be worth it economically you are hoping that either: A) Despite Trumps new trade war, and despite the UK’s huge surplus with the US, deals negotiated after Brexit will mean the US, Russia, China, and the Gulf will allow the U.K. to massively increase the value of current exports to their countries, to make up for a large loss of trade with the biggest single market in the world. Or, B) Trade will continue as is with the other big markets and Europe and its FT partners will accept tariff free trade in goods, and services. If the solution is B, then if it can’t negotiate a very, very good deal (impossible), then the U.K. should maintain is position as a rule maker within the EU (but with its own currency) rather suffer as a rule taker. If the solution is A, you are a dreamer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 25 minutes ago, Freggyragh said: Not sure what you mean by ‘trade’ - do you mean combined import / export? It’s a bit misleading, especially with the Rotterdam effect and manufacturing across EU borders, but just to break down part of that hilarious Woodyfact for you: U.K. GDP = £1,970,000,000,000 UK total exports to EU = £274,000,000,000 = 13.9% of U.K. GDP UK services exports to EU are 32% of total exports, so I’ll knock that off (you don’t seem bothered at all about services, which can mostly up-sticks and move to Dublin / Paris /Frankfurt within weeks anyway), so we can say UK outward trade in goods = £186,320,000,000, which is approximately 9.5% of the UKs GDP. Exports to the US = £99.5B, Russia = £5.3B, Saudi Arabia, Iran & other Gulf States £27.1B, China = £16.1B (major economies without FTor extensive TRQ deals with the EU). Total = £148B, = 7.5%. So, the real situation is this: For Brexit to be worth it economically you are hoping that either: A) Despite Trumps new trade war, and despite the UK’s huge surplus with the US, deals negotiated after Brexit will mean the US, Russia, China, and the Gulf will allow the U.K. to massively increase the value of current exports to their countries, to make up for a large loss of trade with the biggest single market in the world. Or, B) Trade will continue as is with the other big markets and Europe and its FT partners will accept tariff free trade in goods, and services. If the solution is B, then if it can’t negotiate a very, very good deal (impossible), then the U.K. should maintain is position as a rule maker within the EU (but with its own currency) rather suffer as a rule taker. If the solution is A, you are a dreamer. location of these figures is....... awfully different to the figures used by parliament...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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