So the UK is finished says Theresa Mayhem

[ballaughbiker]

Are we self sufficient in oil then? What about gas. Do we net import that too? How does the calamitous currency drop not adversely affect the price we pay for both? How does this price affect every business and person in the country?

 

Who says the currency was overvalued and why did it drop like a stone after the vote if it was simply overvalued?

 

Who says the base rate will only increase 0.25% in the future? A lot of people and companies are only just managing to pay as it is never mind the first paragraph.

 

It isn't just about tariffs. A lot of industries, some of them very portable, are in the UK because we are in the EU. They will be gone if it doesn't suit. The other big issue is regulation. Just have a look at why easyJet and Ryanair (and more to the point, their shareholders) are so worried.

 

There is a huge amount wrong with the EU and only an idiot would think otherwise but we have chosen to make a calamitous move, based on the smallest of voting margin, to leave no matter what. Just listen to those justifying their stance daily on the media. The risk doesn't matter. The exit terms don't matter. We'll be fine etc etc as long as we are out. etc etc

 

It's a massive risk that I pray will pay off. If it does eventually pay off, maybe years ahead, it won't be due to fiscal planning that's for sure.

[woody2]

we have not lost 20% ffs, the pound is been dragged down by the QE in the eurozone, the only way the eu can survive is to use QE, no one will lend them money, for germany to keep exporting they need the euro to decline. it could go as low as 60c/$1

 

we pay billions in import/export duty to the eu and billions in vat, the longer this goes on the worse off the uk is going to be

 

give the eu 30 days to make their mind up or we walk-simple.....

[ballaughbiker]

woody - If you look at the $ to € rate since June that does not seem to be the case. however I agree that we need to do the deed asap.

 

Tempting as telling the eu 'what do do' might be (as it always does in an argument) it is rarely, if ever, the best way out of any conflict

Edited March 11, 2017 by ballaughbiker

[ballaughbiker]

 

 

we have not lost 20% ffs

Just wondered, that being the case, why the rate against the, say, AUD also took a tumble. If you check these graphs out, there is a big drop in late June followed by down, down down. Now look at other important currencies, it's a similar picture. First graph is the AUD, then the CNY then the CHF.

 

This rather empirical evidence would point to the £ loosing 20% of its value no matter how much our mindsets might want us to think otherwise. Time for a rethink woody?

Edited March 11, 2017 by ballaughbiker

[woolley]

@ BB: Like PK you seem to be listening to the "end of the world scenario" peddlers. The reason for the fall in the currency is exactly that. It is all built on sentiment, nothing else. When investment starts piling in it will go the other way, and the long term problem will be trying to keep it from becoming overvalued again. Don't forget that right now every vested interest is lobbying the government because they think there might be support to be had, hence the doom and gloom. It feeds on itself.

 

I cannot see the EU that others seem to see. We are jumping out of the fire, not into it. It's a basket case. Please look beyond Brexit at the EU as it actually is - socially and financially bankrupt - and not some perpetual haven of reassurance.

 

I didn't say interest rates would rise only 0.25%. I said it is only 0.25% now and it needs to rise.

 

Oil/gas imports/exports - we are becoming more dependent: http://visual.ons.gov.uk/uk-energy-how-much-what-type-and-where-from/ However, it's still half the price it has been in recent times.

 

Finally, seeing as we sell them far less than they sell us, tariffs are going to hurt the people we trade with more than they hurt us. EU might want to impose them pour encourager les autres, but what is in that for individual businesses who would suffer? If it happens, with the tariffs we collect we can more than neutralise tariffs imposed from outside.

 

The lack of fiscal planning is because the elite never thought the vote would go the way it did in their wildest nightmares. They are playing catch up while trying to mount a rearguard action. However, if you are holding up the EU as a model of fiscal rectitude then that is obviously wide of the mark. Not had the accounts signed off for a couple of decades has it? So toxic they can't find anyone to put their name to them.

 

[woody2]

you are looking at highs and lows not the overall picture, the uk is in a good position and like the usa should be raising rates not the other way around. the imf gave warnings about the pound as far back as 2010, was this brexit as well.....

[ballaughbiker]

I thought I'd said..... there was a huge amount wrong with the eu. It is possible (ignoring logical fallacies) to be anti the present form of the eu whilst accepting the way things have turned out is nuts. Completely nuts and to our considerable detriment.

 

However we seem to be, especially if we voted/would have voted "out", scouring the media for stories which show we are ok after all. They are few and far between and often entirely misread (like the FTSE increase). Recognising that and not kidding ourselves that 20% hasn't been wiped off the currency is not looking for bad news and wallowing in it. It's reality and it's harsh.

 

You cannot loose 20% of a currency's value and there be no long term effects. Remember 'commie'* Wilson with his late 60s "£ in your pocket" speech? I think that was after the $ rate consequently dropped from about 2.80 to 2.40 and now its 1.21. Hey that must be because me and PK are talking it down

 

We chose to do it this way based on a tiny voting margin and mainly for reasons that were nothing to do with the economic ills of the eu. A huge swathe voted due to their perception of immigration with no thought or care as to what comes next. In fact no thought at all apart from getting rid of what they saw as nasty sponging foreigners...True, the elite clearly had no plan either, which is indefensible, but the brexiteers are 'what did it.'

 

 

* Sorry but I've never forgiven him for scrapping TSR2 and then vandalising all the jigs so the imminent change of government couldn't resurrect it. Ever.

Edited March 11, 2017 by ballaughbiker

[ballaughbiker]

 

 

the uk is in a good position

I give up....

[woolley]

* Sorry but I've never forgiven him for scrapping TSR2 and then vandalising all the jigs so the imminent change of government couldn't resurrect it. Ever.

Can I just "like" that bit? Absolutely right. And you know what? We should have our own totally independent nuclear deterrent too, like the French. It should be a post Brexit project. If you are buying it off the shelf from someone else, locked into their systems, it can never be truly independent.

[the stinking enigma]

We aren't buying it. We are leasing it

[woolley]

Same principle. We should have our own British designed and built system. If France can do it, so can Britain.

[woody2]

did anyone else notice the usa fined vw, then a day later the eu fined the uk.......

[woody2]

 

 

 

the uk is in a good position

I give up....

 

they eu is seeking payment from the uk for the next 80 years, would you pay.........

[woolley]

However we seem to be, especially if we voted/would have voted "out", scouring the media for stories which show we are ok after all. They are few and far between and often entirely misread (like the FTSE increase). Recognising that and not kidding ourselves that 20% hasn't been wiped off the currency is not looking for bad news and wallowing in it. It's reality and it's harsh.

 

You cannot loose 20% of a currency's value and there be no long term effects. Remember 'commie'* Wilson with his late 60s "£ in your pocket" speech? I think that was after the $ rate consequently dropped from about 2.80 to 2.40 and now its 1.21. Hey that must be because me and PK are talking it down

 

So the currency has gone down. You say "wiped off" as though that is the end of the story, but it isn't. It's ongoing. Pound is 1.14 to the euro. Big deal. It was 1.04 in 2008. Was that the distant prospect of Brexit too?

 

http://www.pounds2euro.com/Charts

 

As for the fall against the dollar, of course it has fallen but it's scraping the barrel a bit to go back to 1967! You could go even further back. When I was a kid five bob was called a dollar - 4 to the pound! (I hasten to add that I was around when it was called that and not when it actually was that.... )

Edited March 11, 2017 by woolley

[Tarne]

The Euro to Pound almost being equal last time was on the back of the US mortgage crisis, which whilst the £ was at 1.04 to the €, the £ was about 1.50 to the $ - this time it's tits up all around for the £.