woody2 Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 1 hour ago, mojomonkey said: If the vote fails today could the current Government actually claim credible leadership though? May has lasted longer than I thought she would, but surely she has to go if this fails today. 1 hour ago, John Wright said: But surely, if she is defeated in today’s “meaningful” vote, and a no deal exit crashing out prohibition resolution is passed tomorrow, followed by a motion requiring the government to seek an Art 50 extension, her career as PM is over. The interesting bit then is twofold. What will the EU do about extension? Can the government carry amendments to the legislation to change the 29/3 leave date. And if neither comes to pass does she, or anyone in her place, have the bottle to fall on their swords and withdraw Art 50 completely. a 3rd vote on this deal has been pencilled in for after the eu summit..... the 2 votes are not on the order paper for tomorrow and thursday....... they should announce at least one if may loses the vote tonight.... it also depends what weight and under what mechanism is used for the votes...... it could get interesting........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freggyragh Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 1 hour ago, woody2 said: can you say which line of the gfa states this..........or are you talking about another treaty.............There are plenty of points concerning rights, including economic rights and remedies, but let’s focus on the border. There are parts which relate to EU rights, including economic rights and remedies, including EU courts, but probably the main sticking point is the border. There are currently more road crossing points between Northern Ireland and the Republic than there are between the all other E.U. countries and and non-EU countries. Most of the roads are little backroads like those between Jurby and Andreas. Can you imagine how the locals would feel if the U.K. instigated a hard border between Jurby and Andreas, with sometimes two, or three checks along the same stretch of road? 1. The Irish and U.K. governments both made commitments to develop "close cooperation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union". Taking Northern Ireland out of the E.U. goes against the referendum result in Northern Ireland, and clearly, if one side leaves the E.U. it is breaking this commitment. Theresa May’s solution was to allow Northern Ireland special status, that’s not quite what was in the agreement, but the E.U. agreed. Then the DUP, who never backed the GFA demanded something different. 2. The commitment to “the removal of security installations”. Any physical border posts, even unmanned electronic posts, will require security installations as they will instantly become targets for attacks by the lunatics. That’s as sure as day follows night. 3. The commitment to progress a regional development strategy that tackles "the problems of a divided society and social cohesion in urban, rural and border areas". Border checkpoints would no way work to progress such a regional development strategy. I remember crossing that border a couple of times in the seventies and eighties. Half the roads were permanently blocked, and even if you avoided the queues of lorries and buses on the busy roads your car was often searched by soldiers with guns. Closing those roads again will break up communities, and at the ones that stay open there will have to be stop and search. I’m afraid that’s inevitable, but if you can point to two developed countries with different customs regimes and laws on what can be bought and sold living side by side with completely open borders, I might change my view. Likewise, if the ERG invent their magical border solutions. A hard border would be massively disruptive to agribusiness and trans-border trade. Market towns like Newry and Derry would be cut off from half their surrounding hinterlands. It would effect the local economies and before you knew it you’d find organised smuggling and paramilitary activity on the rise again. It would be a slap in the face to the reconciliation and the good cross-border relations that the Good Friday Agreement facilitated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freggyragh Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Apologies for the various print sizes in that post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, Freggyragh said: There are parts which relate to EU rights, including economic rights and remedies, including EU courts, but probably the main sticking point is the border. There are currently more road crossing points between Northern Ireland and the Republic than there are between the all other E.U. countries and and non-EU countries. Most of the roads are little backroads like those between Jurby and Andreas. Can you imagine how the locals would feel if the U.K. instigated a hard border between Jurby and Andreas, with sometimes two, or three checks along the same stretch of road? 1. The Irish and U.K. governments both made commitments to develop "close cooperation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union". Taking Northern Ireland out of the E.U. goes against the referendum result in Northern Ireland, and clearly, if one side leaves the E.U. it is breaking this commitment. Theresa May’s solution was to allow Northern Ireland special status, that’s not quite what was in the agreement, but the E.U. agreed. Then the DUP, who never backed the GFA demanded something different. 2. The commitment to “the removal of security installations”. Any physical border posts, even unmanned electronic posts, will require security installations as they will instantly become targets for attacks by the lunatics. That’s as sure as day follows night. 3. The commitment to progress a regional development strategy that tackles "the problems of a divided society and social cohesion in urban, rural and border areas". Border checkpoints would no way work to progress such a regional development strategy. I remember crossing that border a couple of times in the seventies and eighties. Half the roads were permanently blocked, and even if you avoided the queues of lorries and buses on the busy roads your car was often searched by soldiers with guns. Closing those roads again will break up communities, and at the ones that stay open there will have to be stop and search. I’m afraid that’s inevitable, but if you can point to two developed countries with different customs regimes and laws on what can be bought and sold living side by side with completely open borders, I might change my view. Likewise, if the ERG invent their magical border solutions. A hard border would be massively disruptive to agribusiness and trans-border trade. Market towns like Newry and Derry would be cut off from half their surrounding hinterlands. It would effect the local economies and before you knew it you’d find organised smuggling and paramilitary activity on the rise again. It would be a slap in the face to the reconciliation and the good cross-border relations that the Good Friday Agreement facilitated. border checks happen now........are you saying the eu is breaching the gfa? no one from the uk is requiring a hard border...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, Freggyragh said: Apologies for the various print sizes in that post. Quote There is no explicit commitment to never harden the border, and there is nothing about customs posts or regulatory controls. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46988529 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paswt Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 3 hours ago, John Wright said: There’s too much ad hominem stuff going on, and very childish tit for tat comments. Weve seen it all before. Only sensible points, actually commenting on what is actually going on, meaningful links, for the rest of the week. I was ready to suspend P.K. and WTF - we’ve already had months of repeated pointless accusation and denial about voting and remainder/leaver status. One last chance. I reserve the right to challenge misleading statements made about me or my views by any poster on this site. I have made only one 'robust response' ( after several polite requests )which has been reposted (not by me) on the 'testing' thread which set out a series of facts in relation to my stance on this thread. If you choose to ban me for responding JW , fair enough , you're a mod and that's your decision , I can live with that 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freggyragh Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, woody2 said: border checks happen now........are you saying the eu is breaching the gfa? no one from the uk is requiring a hard border...... When you cross the border from the Republic into Northern Ireland now the only thing you see to tell you you are in the North are speed signs in miles, prices in pounds and tribal flags to tell you what community you’re in. I don’t know what border checks you think there are, but I think you are probably confusing the point of entry checks at ports with checks on the partition border. There are EU inspectors for non-EU meat imports at Belfast harbour for instance. Also, as Ireland is considered a single jurisdiction for the purposes of animal health and disease prevention there are already checks in place for British cattle coming into Ireland, whether they come to a port in Northern Ireland or the Republic. The GFA recognises there is a border, and that it will remain as long a majority in the North want it to stay (probably 20 years at the most going on current demographics). The GFA isn’t getting rid of the border, it is about creating peaceful co-existence, bringing communities together, parity of esteem and cross-border co-operation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freggyragh Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 No one from the U.K. is requiring a hard border? Well Grease-Mogg was back in August, although I think the official line now might be belief in the Magic Malthouse Formula. In reality, if you are calling for separate standards, regulations, tariffs and laws, you are calling for a hard-border - as Jacob explains in the clip: https://www.itv.com/news/2018-08-25/rees-mogg-called-ill-informed-after-suggesting-troubles-model-for-irish-border/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freggyragh Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 40/1 on May’s deal passing. Anyone think it’s worth a punt? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 43 minutes ago, Freggyragh said: When you cross the border from the Republic into Northern Ireland now the only thing you see to tell you you are in the North are speed signs in miles, prices in pounds and tribal flags to tell you what community you’re in. I don’t know what border checks you think there are, but I think you are probably confusing the point of entry checks at ports with checks on the partition border. There are EU inspectors for non-EU meat imports at Belfast harbour for instance. Also, as Ireland is considered a single jurisdiction for the purposes of animal health and disease prevention there are already checks in place for British cattle coming into Ireland, whether they come to a port in Northern Ireland or the Republic. The GFA recognises there is a border, and that it will remain as long a majority in the North want it to stay (probably 20 years at the most going on current demographics). The GFA isn’t getting rid of the border, it is about creating peaceful co-existence, bringing communities together, parity of esteem and cross-border co-operation. lay-by on irelands side......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Freggyragh said: 40/1 on May’s deal passing. Anyone think it’s worth a punt? only 20/1 at lunch time....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 rumour is may will go for art.50 extension vote........but no no deal vote.........cooper will be pleased....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freggyragh Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, woody2 said: only 20/1 at lunch time....... 40/1 betfair exchange Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freggyragh Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, woody2 said: lay-by on irelands side......... That’s your dumbest reply yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Freggyragh said: 40/1 betfair exchange only 17 mp's have declared to change of vote....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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