Freggyragh Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Most people are fed up with it now. It’s over. Whether the final confirmation comes this year or next, people are sick of it. Most leavers quietly know they were played. They know it was mostly just a vehicle to benefit the careers of spivs and failed human beings like Galloway, Johnson and Farage, the bank accounts of the super-wealthy elites and the anti-British policies of Vladimir Putin. Some, but by no means all, of the social, industrial and political damage done is irreversible, and so I excpect there will be prosecutions too, probably with evidence supplied by the Americans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Wright Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, Freggyragh said: Most people are fed up with it now. It’s over. Whether the final confirmation comes this year or next, people are sick of it. Most leavers quietly know they were played. They know it was mostly just a vehicle to benefit the careers of spivs and failed human beings like Galloway, Johnson and Farage, the bank accounts of the super-wealthy elites and the anti-British policies of Vladimir Putin. Some, but by no means all, of the social, industrial and political damage done is irreversible, and so I excpect there will be prosecutions too, probably with evidence supplied by the Americans. Yes, we are all fed up. Problem is, leaving on deal, or no deal will see a minimum of 2 years, and perhaps many more, continued hype about our ongoing relationship, trade talks, political positioning and jockeying, by spivs in all parties, it’s going to dominate U.K. politics for another generation. There’ll be I told you so recriminations when favourable trade deals with anywhere fail to materialise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barrie Stevens Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 1 hour ago, John Wright said: I don’t gamble (Methodist upbringing) and predicting outcomes is a mugs game (litigation experience), but the following scenario wouldn’t surprise me. No deal leave option thrown out tomorrow. May instructed to seek extension in Thursday’s vote. May seeks extension of 8 weeks. 21 March EU Council refuses extension. What purpose would it serve. After the elections in May there’ll be a new, fragmented EU parliament, new EU presidents to be appointed, new Commissioners to be appointed, all to be approved by the EU parliament. That’ll take them up to Christmas, at least. U.K. National Unity Caretaker Government formed on basis its for limited period, both May and Corbyn agree to resign, they withdraw Art 50 notice at the last minute. Both resign. There are leadership elections in all three U.K. main parties. Party conferences over in September a general election is called for November.. Seems fair enough for now! I started out as a Methodist and at age 5 got a prize for singing "Jesus wants me for a sunbeam"...Can you remember how to play the Harmonium? I could reprise my role or do the other party piece "Jesus bids me shine with a clear, clear light, like a little candle burning in the night"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 2 hours ago, John Wright said: I don’t gamble (Methodist upbringing) and predicting outcomes is a mugs game (litigation experience), but the following scenario wouldn’t surprise me. No deal leave option thrown out tomorrow. May instructed to seek extension in Thursday’s vote. May seeks extension of 8 weeks. 21 March EU Council refuses extension. What purpose would it serve. After the elections in May there’ll be a new, fragmented EU parliament, new EU presidents to be appointed, new Commissioners to be appointed, all to be approved by the EU parliament. That’ll take them up to Christmas, at least. U.K. National Unity Caretaker Government formed on basis its for limited period, both May and Corbyn agree to resign, they withdraw Art 50 notice at the last minute. Both resign. There are leadership elections in all three U.K. main parties. Party conferences over in September a general election is called for November.. Blimey. That's a bit nuclear. I don't for a moment doubt the treachery of the deeply remain House of Commons or the excess bravado of the ERG, but nobody seems to be considering what appears to me to be quite a likely scenario. I agree with: I don’t gamble (only the bookies win) and predicting outcomes is a mugs game (life experience), No deal leave option thrown out tomorrow. May instructed to seek extension in Thursday’s vote. But then you appear to go off into fantasy. More likely: Government applies for extension as instructed, and the EU leaves them to sweat for a while while consulting the "27". Sometime in the period between the extension application and 29th there is a 3rd Meaningful Vote. With "No Deal" ruled out, even the ERG would have to get on board or certainly lose Brexit. That would bring the numbers much tighter. I am not sure whether the DUP could be persuaded but probably there would be a number of Labour MPs in strongly Leave constituencies who could be bought off. This deal is not over yet. Everyone bets against May, but I am not so sure. The extension is granted for long enough to get the necessary legislation through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 4 hours ago, Freggyragh said: Just got 50/1. Mad punt. A fool and his money are soon parted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 3 hours ago, John Wright said: Just announced she will stand by her commitment to a vote on leaving with no deal tomorrow. Leader of House to make emergency statement about tomorrow’s business. The end of Brexit is nigh. a non-binding vote..... may said new legislation to follow vote although some are saying statutory instrument.........big difference..... don't forget mv3 which i said earlier........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freggyragh Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 26 minutes ago, woolley said: A fool and his money are soon parted. Ha ha. Yes. I got in at 50/1, but it went out much further before the off, I was about to lay it at 100/1, giving me a free 50/1 punt - but I called away. £2 won’t break the bank after all the wonderful Woodytips I’ve had. I should have balked when Woody showed interest in the odds. I’m still £95 up this year on political bets after I cashed in on the second referendum before 2020 punt. Even now I wouldn’t bet on that. No deal winning tomorrow’s vote is currently 16/1 on the exchanges. I’d say that’s likely to to go to very long odds, but I’m not backing it. I just can’t see many MPs voting for that disaster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody2 Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 3 hours ago, John Wright said: I don’t gamble (Methodist upbringing) and predicting outcomes is a mugs game (litigation experience), but the following scenario wouldn’t surprise me. No deal leave option thrown out tomorrow. May instructed to seek extension in Thursday’s vote. May seeks extension of 8 weeks. 21 March EU Council refuses extension. What purpose would it serve. After the elections in May there’ll be a new, fragmented EU parliament, new EU presidents to be appointed, new Commissioners to be appointed, all to be approved by the EU parliament. That’ll take them up to Christmas, at least. U.K. National Unity Caretaker Government formed on basis its for limited period, both May and Corbyn agree to resign, they withdraw Art 50 notice at the last minute. Both resign. There are leadership elections in all three U.K. main parties. Party conferences over in September a general election is called for November.. 42 minutes ago, woolley said: Blimey. That's a bit nuclear. I don't for a moment doubt the treachery of the deeply remain House of Commons or the excess bravado of the ERG, but nobody seems to be considering what appears to me to be quite a likely scenario. I agree with: I don’t gamble (only the bookies win) and predicting outcomes is a mugs game (life experience), No deal leave option thrown out tomorrow. May instructed to seek extension in Thursday’s vote. But then you appear to go off into fantasy. More likely: Government applies for extension as instructed, and the EU leaves them to sweat for a while while consulting the "27". Sometime in the period between the extension application and 29th there is a 3rd Meaningful Vote. With "No Deal" ruled out, even the ERG would have to get on board or certainly lose Brexit. That would bring the numbers much tighter. I am not sure whether the DUP could be persuaded but probably there would be a number of Labour MPs in strongly Leave constituencies who could be bought off. This deal is not over yet. Everyone bets against May, but I am not so sure. The extension is granted for long enough to get the necessary legislation through. what you are both missing is any change in uk law doesn't change eu law....... art.50 withdrawal could be up for a vote tomorrow..... neither the tories or labour seem to support it....... extension till may then no eu parliament sitting=no deal may said everything but a ge........corbyn mentioned a ge but not a ref2.= stalemate........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freggyragh Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, woody2 said: don't forget mv3 which i said earlier........ Three choices remain on the table at this stage: No deal. Bad deal. Remain. No one campaigned for a no deal Brexit. It wasn’t suggested by any of the Leave campaign groups. It has no mandate, only the super-wealthy elite and their butlers will be backing that. There was no mandate for a bad deal either. No one said ‘vote leave and we’ll give the E.U. £39B, remain in the EU in all but name but lose all say in how it is run.” There was at least a 48% turnout for Remain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Freggyragh said: Ha ha. Yes. I got in at 50/1, but it went out much further before the off, I was about to lay it at 100/1, giving me a free 50/1 punt - but I called away. £2 won’t break the bank after all the wonderful Woodytips I’ve had. I should have balked when Woody showed interest in the odds. I’m still £95 up this year on political bets after I cashed in on the second referendum before 2020 punt. Even now I wouldn’t bet on that. No deal winning tomorrow’s vote is currently 16/1 on the exchanges. I’d say that’s likely to to go to very long odds, but I’m not backing it. I just can’t see many MPs voting for that disaster. Well, whatever the merits or otherwise of no deal, you are correct in that there is certainly no chance of it gaining any traction among predominantly Remain MPs. Be lucky to register over a hundred votes in support, I would guess. I just don't get the ERG stance at all. Nobody likes to compromise, but in the face of losing everything you ever fought for all of your life sometimes you have to realise that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Surely better to take a strategic victory and get out on the terms negotiated than be back to square one. If they had been offered the current terms to get out ten years ago they would have thought all of their Christmases had come at once. Hubris has taken over the art of the possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, woody2 said: what you are both missing is any change in uk law doesn't change eu law....... art.50 withdrawal could be up for a vote tomorrow..... neither the tories or labour seem to support it....... extension till may then no eu parliament sitting=no deal may said everything but a ge........corbyn mentioned a ge but not a ref2.= stalemate........ I don't think you are confronting reality with this post, Woody. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freggyragh Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 May’s deal was far worse than membership and risked losing Northern Ireland a couple of decades early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Freggyragh said: Three choices remain on the table at this stage: No deal. Bad deal. Remain. No one campaigned for a no deal Brexit. It wasn’t suggested by any of the Leave campaign groups. It has no mandate, only the super-wealthy elite and their butlers will be backing that. There was no mandate for a bad deal either. No one said ‘vote leave and we’ll give the E.U. £39B, remain in the EU in all but name but lose all say in how it is run.” There was at least a 48% turnout for Remain. You are misrepresenting the deal negotiated. Not much more could be done with the crazy way the Art 50 process is laid down. This is why the UK should have insisted on sorting out the future relationship simultaneously with the withdrawal deal and stuck to its guns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Freggyragh said: May’s deal was far worse than membership and risked losing Northern Ireland a couple of decades early. No it wasn't. It provided for trade access without free movement and an independent trade policy, but the main gain is the very fact of leaving so that we can reassume sovereignty and cannot be pulled further into an ever more integrated union by stealth. Do you believe that Ireland is ready to take on the economic burden of Northern Ireland? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Wright Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 5 hours ago, woolley said: You are misrepresenting the deal negotiated. Not much more could be done with the crazy way the Art 50 process is laid down. This is why the UK should have insisted on sorting out the future relationship simultaneously with the withdrawal deal and stuck to its guns. Certainly agree with that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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