So the UK is finished says Theresa Mayhem

[P.K.]

1 hour ago, John Wright said:

I think you completely misunderstand

Well, it wouldn't be the first time now would it....   

“But Germany, France and Italy won’t stop buying things from the UK if we leave” say the Brexiteers, they NEED us, and they won’t put us into a tariff regime" 

So says the Leave EU camp. It won’t be a choice, it’s not a case of the EU damaging their imports to be spiteful to a UK that just voted to leave the EU. The fact is that there exists a document called the Treaty of the European Union and it sets out the very foundation of how the 28 member states work and cooperate together. It was part written by the UK and part drafted by UK lawyers.

 It was agreed by all Member States that the EU would create a ‘thing’ called the “EU Common External Tariff Regime” for countries outside the EU that wanted to to trade with EU businesses. Different tariffs are in place for different product types. Higher for products the EU doesn’t desperately need and lower for the things it does need desperately like energy for example – which explains why Norway get such a good deal as around half of Norways exports to the EU is oil and gas.

When we tear up our membership card, Article 50 of the Treaty comes into force. It says that a country that notifies the EU we are leaving the club all our agreements terminate 24 months after notification. On 29/3/19 we are automatically under the external tariff regime that the UK helped to draft and fully signed up to.

The ONLY way this could be changed is if the Treaty is changed. This requires the agreement of all remaining 27 countries. Many of whom have a referendum lock if there are any changes to the Treaty.  It just isn’t feasibly possible to have all the necessary referendums and treaty change agreed by heads of state of 27 nations across Europe in the 2 year time limit.

 Meanwhile we could continue to renegotiate the 4,500 plus different product groups that we trade with the EU to try and get lower tariffs on the things we buy and sell. This could take as much as a decade (or longer if other trade negotiations are any guide).

The point is that the UK becoming a part of the EU Tariff Regime (which meets WTO terms) is automatic if we elect to Leave and there is nothing that Germany, France or Spain or even the UK can do about it.

Currently we enjoy unlimited trade with the largest trading bloc on the planet free from duties, tariffs or quota and preferential terms with a further 60 countries around the world outside the EU under our EU membership benefits.

It’s also worth noting that of all the top ten economies in the world every single one of them with a population of less than one billion people is a member of a continental trade bloc like the EU. *UK has just 0.065% of 1bn

Do we really think we are powerful enough to buck the trend of global trade and international economics? I think not. We are pretty good, but not that good.

?

[P.K.]

4 hours ago, doc.fixit said:

that Gove really appears to be a slimy git

Mind you, he stabbed Boris Johnson and his ambitions in the back so not all bad....

[John Wright]

7 hours ago, P.K. said:

Well, it wouldn't be the first time now would it....   

“But Germany, France and Italy won’t stop buying things from the UK if we leave” say the Brexiteers, they NEED us, and they won’t put us into a tariff regime" 

So says the Leave EU camp. It won’t be a choice, it’s not a case of the EU damaging their imports to be spiteful to a UK that just voted to leave the EU. The fact is that there exists a document called the Treaty of the European Union and it sets out the very foundation of how the 28 member states work and cooperate together. It was part written by the UK and part drafted by UK lawyers.

 It was agreed by all Member States that the EU would create a ‘thing’ called the “EU Common External Tariff Regime” for countries outside the EU that wanted to to trade with EU businesses. Different tariffs are in place for different product types. Higher for products the EU doesn’t desperately need and lower for the things it does need desperately like energy for example – which explains why Norway get such a good deal as around half of Norways exports to the EU is oil and gas.

When we tear up our membership card, Article 50 of the Treaty comes into force. It says that a country that notifies the EU we are leaving the club all our agreements terminate 24 months after notification. On 29/3/19 we are automatically under the external tariff regime that the UK helped to draft and fully signed up to.

The ONLY way this could be changed is if the Treaty is changed. This requires the agreement of all remaining 27 countries. Many of whom have a referendum lock if there are any changes to the Treaty.  It just isn’t feasibly possible to have all the necessary referendums and treaty change agreed by heads of state of 27 nations across Europe in the 2 year time limit.

 Meanwhile we could continue to renegotiate the 4,500 plus different product groups that we trade with the EU to try and get lower tariffs on the things we buy and sell. This could take as much as a decade (or longer if other trade negotiations are any guide).

The point is that the UK becoming a part of the EU Tariff Regime (which meets WTO terms) is automatic if we elect to Leave and there is nothing that Germany, France or Spain or even the UK can do about it.

Currently we enjoy unlimited trade with the largest trading bloc on the planet free from duties, tariffs or quota and preferential terms with a further 60 countries around the world outside the EU under our EU membership benefits.

It’s also worth noting that of all the top ten economies in the world every single one of them with a population of less than one billion people is a member of a continental trade bloc like the EU. *UK has just 0.065% of 1bn

Do we really think we are powerful enough to buck the trend of global trade and international economics? I think not. We are pretty good, but not that good.

?

But you were implying that the CET would impose a tax, increasing the price of the 30% food we get from EU. It wouldn’t. The CET sets the tariff on imports into the EU from countries not in the Customs Union or Single Market or with which the EU has a Trade Agreement ( over half the world - as an EU country you have more Trade Agreements than any other country has ).

Import duties, tax, tariffs, quantitative or qualitative restrictions on food imports into U.K. post Brexit in a no deal WTO world would be set by the U.K. in accordance with its schedules or at default WTO levels.

UK could say no tariffs or limitations, but that would have to apply to all countries. Food prices could fall, significantly for food sourced from outside the EU ( it would be neutral for food sourced from EU as its currently zero). But at what cost to U.K. producers?

[P.K.]

Just now, John Wright said:

But you were implying that the CET would impose a tax, increasing the price of the 30% food we get from EU. It wouldn’t. The CET sets the tariff on imports into the EU from countries not in the Customs Union or Single Market or with which the EU has a Trade Agreement ( over half the world - as an EU country you have more Trade Agreements than any other country has ).

Import duties, tax, tariffs, quantitative or qualitative restrictions on food imports into U.K. post Brexit in a no deal WTO world would be set by the U.K. in accordance with its schedules or at default WTO levels.

UK could say no tariffs or limitations, but that would have to apply to all countries. Food prices could fall, significantly for food sourced from outside the EU ( it would be neutral for food sourced from EU as its currently zero). But at what cost to U.K. producers?

Strange but true if memory serves it was Gawnio who brought my attention to the situation outlined above some years ago!

WTO tariffs are up to 30% but as you say the UK will set their own for imports. The concern I have is around security of supply.

For example say the tory faithful, who hate the EU because for years and years the appalling Daily Wail has been telling them they should, therefore vote for an untrustworthy, self-centered, lying buffoon to be PM. This charlatan, who always puts self above all else, will want low to zero tariffs on food imports to demonstrate a "brexit bonus" to justify their previous lies.

This will undercut UK agriculture which will then suffer accordingly. So some of the biggest advantages of being in the EU to wit guarantee of standards, stable pricing and therefore stable home production and with a decent supply chain will all go out the window.

All because the UK lowbrow right wing press, which is to say pretty much all of it, have just been obeying orders issued by the owner.

I suspect it's dark days ahead....

[woolley]

That's not what you were saying, PK. By design, accident or confusion, you were doing a "food will cost more" job on us, and now you have been called out on it you have gone back to your standard "appalling right wing Daily Wail Tory bastards" mantra.

ETA: One does have to admire your chutzpah on occasions. You attempt the above flanker and then have the temerity to hang it on poor old Gawne. Have you considered politics? This is blame shifting of Keys standard at least. See you on the ballot paper in '21!

Edited May 25, 2019 by woolley

[P.K.]

1 hour ago, woolley said:

That's not what you were saying, PK. By design, accident or confusion, you were doing a "food will cost more" job on us, and now you have been called out on it you have gone back to your standard "appalling right wing Daily Wail Tory bastards" mantra.

ETA: One does have to admire your chutzpah on occasions. You attempt the above flanker and then have the temerity to hang it on poor old Gawne. Have you considered politics? This is blame shifting of Keys standard at least. See you on the ballot paper in '21!

It probably would have helped had I posted up the accompanying graphic thus :

 

[P.K.]

It was that nice Phil Gawne who copied out Jason Hunter's piece last year because I checked.

That's the same Jason Hunter who took apart Jonathan Isaby of Brexit Central on radio Kent. Where Jason pointed out that tariffs under WTO will not only make it harder to sell UK goods abroad but could also destroy UK agriculture.

Found it. Dear me how time flies when you're having fun:

On 9/8/2018 at 9:57 PM, P.K. said:

Jason Hunter has been gainfully employed cutting WTO trade deals in The Far East for the likes of Japan, Hong Kong and so forth. Here he is explaining what will happen if the UK crashes out with no deal. This isn't "Project Fear" or any other label you try to hang on it to discredit him. This is how it is:

https://t.co/JBb2zxsGOe?amp=1

Just how fucking stupid are some people?

As Bernoulli once said "We recognise the lion by his claw..."

[woolley]

1 hour ago, P.K. said:

It probably would have helped had I posted up the accompanying graphic thus :

 

Or perhaps not. Specialist subject: The bleedin' obvious.

[P.K.]

I probably deserved that....

[Freggyragh]

https://www.myeu.uk/area/PR

[woolley]

20 minutes ago, Freggyragh said:

https://www.myeu.uk/area/PR

Wonderful. The EU is so altruistic with the UK's own money. If folk want to give me long billions towards my budget I'd be delighted to give them almost a third of it back too. I'd spend the other 70% attempting to build an unlikely utopia with lots of lovely lucre for all my mates.

[ballaughbiker]

You don't seem to have taken into account the considerable cost of replacing the various stratae of standards, regulation and compliance after 31st Oct never mind the cost of the issues loosing the present system will prompt.The new systems will have to be agreed with the EU and all the other countries we wish to deal with.

Then there's all that tax we shan't be taking from companies and their employees that leave for an EU destination never mind any costs of future currency rates.

Then there's the cost of replacing those those lovely WTO trade deals negotiated via the EU. Remember we have to replace them in time for 1st Nov and some of them took a decade to negotiate (Dr Fox..... is it all sorted yet?) Then there's all the tariffs following the initial temporary rate but this will be slightly offset with cheap unregulated shite food from * knows where.

Etc etc etc etc etc etc etc

There are without doubt EU excesses that need curbing but are we not throwing the baby out with the bath water in search of all those undefinable emotional aspirations like "sovereignty?"

Edited May 26, 2019 by ballaughbiker

[woolley]

45 minutes ago, ballaughbiker said:

You don't seem to have taken into account the considerable cost of replacing the various stratae of standards, regulation and compliance after 31st Oct never mind the cost of the issues loosing the present system will prompt.The new systems will have to be agreed with the EU and all the other countries we wish to deal with.

Then there's all that tax we shan't be taking from companies and their employees that leave for an EU destination never mind any costs of future currency rates.

Then there's the cost of replacing those those lovely WTO trade deals negotiated via the EU. Remember we have to replace them in time for 1st Nov and some of them took a decade to negotiate (Dr Fox..... is it all sorted yet?) Then there's all the tariffs following the initial temporary rate but this will be slightly offset with cheap unregulated shite food from * knows where.

Etc etc etc etc etc etc etc

There are without doubt EU excesses that need curbing but are we not throwing the baby out with the bath water in search of all those undefinable emotional aspirations like "sovereignty?"

All of that is speculation and none of it relevant to the point I was making. Freggy posts a link showing us the largesse lavished on the UK by the EU. I was merely pointing out that is does so with a small fraction of the money flowing in the opposite direction.

Perhaps if we'd been around in 1945 we would have a different definition of sovereignty than an "undefinable emotional aspiration". Make no mistake. It's a cyclical world and harsh times will return. You are only viewing things through the prism of what has occurred in your own lifetime. Study the bigger picture.

[P.K.]

11 minutes ago, woolley said:

All of that is speculation and none of it relevant to the point I was making. Freggy posts a link showing us the largesse lavished on the UK by the EU. I was merely pointing out that is does so with a small fraction of the money flowing in the opposite direction.

Perhaps if we'd been around in 1945 we would have a different definition of sovereignty than an "undefinable emotional aspiration". Make no mistake. It's a cyclical world and harsh times will return. You are only viewing things through the prism of what has occurred in your own lifetime. Study the bigger picture.

The bigger picture shows that you will be far better off in a trading bloc, especially the biggest on the planet, than being an old, wounded beast limping alone behind the rest of the herd just waiting to be picked off.

And you bloody well know it....!

[woolley]

3 minutes ago, P.K. said:

The bigger picture shows that you will be far better off in a trading bloc, especially the biggest on the planet, than being an old, wounded beast limping alone behind the rest of the herd just waiting to be picked off.

And you bloody well know it....!

Hmmmm. "Picked off"? What does that mean?

OK. What do you think will happen to the EU after the demise of the euro? Just as a matter of interest.