So the UK is finished says Theresa Mayhem

[P.K.]

Just now, woolley said:

And, by the way, the term "crash out" is in itself a device of Project Fear.

I give you Boris Johnson PM.

The defence rests....

[woolley]

1 minute ago, Barrie Stevens said:

 

Few weeks....Where have we heard that before....Like we hold all the cards and...It will all be over by Christmas....

You think there will be tariffs on trade between EU and UK? Not going to happen.

1) Parliament of remainers won't allow it.

2) In the unlikely event that no deal went through, business on either side of channel will not allow tariffs.

3) Tariffs are in  nobody's interest.

[Barrie Stevens]

4 minutes ago, woolley said:

You think there will be tariffs on trade between EU and UK? Not going to happen.

1) Parliament of remainers won't allow it.

2) In the unlikely event that no deal went through, business on either side of channel will not allow tariffs.

3) Tariffs are in  nobody's interest.

Nobody knows what is going to happen until it happens. No one can say for certain. The people in charge do not know. I rather get the impression that neither the EU or Parliament nor business has much of a say if we revert to WTO situation. Boris him say no tariffs ...Then under WTO it is said we have to treat all others the same so that cheap stuff floods in and our own farmers and processors get undercut and uncompetitive as they were from 1870 to 1915..I had that Jeremy Hunt down on manor yesterday....

[manxman1980]

1 hour ago, woolley said:

You think there will be tariffs on trade between EU and UK? Not going to happen.

1) Parliament of remainers won't allow it.

2) In the unlikely event that no deal went through, business on either side of channel will not allow tariffs.

3) Tariffs are in  nobody's interest.

I will take you up on the point about tariffs.  

Assume we leave the EU without an agreement and immediately we have to trade under WTO rules (rules not a deal/agreement).  Immediately work will begin on a trade agreement between the UK and the EU, however, the EU will not offer the UK the same terms we have now.  Any deal with the EU will be worse for the UK - there is no way the UK gets an improvement on the current arrangements with the UK.  Businesses know this and are taking steps to prepare for the worse.

As far as I am aware there is no transitional arrangements in the event that the UK leaves on the 31st October without an agreement.  Trade agreements are not drawn up overnight but I suspect that the EU already has a draft prepared that could be used as a transitional arrangement - the UK probably not... 

Now back to the bigger picture...  In the event of no agreement being in place what happens with travel etc?  These as far as I am aware still not clear.  I know that EU citizens resident in the UK will be able to apply for pre-settled status but what about business trips and short term travel such as holidays?

[Freggyragh]

Tariffs are only one factor of the ongoing brexit confusion.

Since brexit the pound has gained about 15% against the USD, but lost about 17% of its value against the Euro, 23% against the Japanese Yen, 19% against the Korean Won, 9% against RMB, etc. 

It might start you suspecting that the US and U.K. are engaged in deliberate attempts to shock the markets with erratic and irrational political leadership in order to deliberately devalue their currencies. 

[P.K.]

@woolley

Here it is again duly edited to avoid upsetting your clearly sensitive soul.

What do you think Liam Fox is up to with this pointless charade:

 

On 6/25/2019 at 10:01 AM, P.K. said:

I'm starting to wonder if the level of denial on here pervades the HoC as well or if it's just politics.

Take Liam Fox for example. He MUST know that a trade deal with the EU has a "most favoured nation" clause which means if you sign up to trade with the EU then any deals you make subsequently with other entities must be less than the EU trade deal.

Yet Fox swans off to Japan and comes back bitching to the HoC that they wouldn't play ball. 

The only conclusion one can draw from that performance is that Fox is just playing to the crowd to keep the brexit deception going....

 

[P.K.]

3 hours ago, woolley said:

You think there will be tariffs on trade between EU and UK? Not going to happen.

1) Parliament of remainers won't allow it.

2) In the unlikely event that no deal went through, business on either side of channel will not allow tariffs.

3) Tariffs are in  nobody's interest.

Mark Francois says wrecking car industry after no-deal Brexit would 'at least be our choice'

Tory Brexiteer Mark Francois in debate with a former international trade negotiator on television tried to put a positive on no-deal Brexit tariffs hitting the car industry by saying 'at least it would be our choice'.

The Conservative MP for Rayleigh and Wickford was in a debate with David Henig on Sky News as they both discussed the impact of a no-deal Brexit on the UK economy.

Henig started the interview by explaining what exactly crashing out of the EU would mean. He told presenter Adam Boulton: "No deal equals trade barriers, tariffs on UK goods into the EU, technical barriers, inspections, loss of privileges to provide services across the EU. That all happens in the event of no deal. No deal is no deal, there is no mystery WTO provision that allows you to get out of the mess."

He warned that it meant high tariffs for the car industry and agriculture including a number of foods, and warned if we did set all of our tariffs at zero it would mean "other countries will say they won't, we don't need a trade deal with you". And he added the impact on the car industry under these trading conditions could be devastating.

Henig said: "For our car producers - 122,000 work manufacturing cars and automotive equipment - they are going to be hit. A huge percentage of those will go overseas."

But rather than attempt to dispute what the expert had to say, Francois claimed that "the fundamental point is if they're going to be hit, at least it would be our choice."

Somewhat surprised by his claim, Adam Boulton drily responded: "Yes I know but if it's your choice to blow your head off, you don't take it, at least not very often."

"As a matter of fact Adam, I am not blowing my head off today, nor am I planning to," responded Francois, as the presenter said "yes but we're talking about November 1st."

[Freggyragh]

8 hours ago, woolley said:

For instance, nobody acknowledges the point I made about direct inward investment which has been better than Germany and France combined.

What kind of investment is it though? New factories? Or, is it just a fire sale of British owned assets that have had their Euro values slashed by nearly 20% since the referendum?  

Edited June 27, 2019 by Freggyragh

[P.K.]

@woolley

8 hours ago, woolley said:

 For instance, nobody acknowledges the point I made about direct inward investment which has been better than Germany and France combined.

Can't think why.....

The FT:

Quote

Foreign investment into UK falls to lowest level in six years

Foreign investment into the UK’s most productive industries has plunged since the 2016 Brexit referendum, official data showed, suggesting that uncertainty over future trading arrangements with the EU is stopping businesses from committing to the country.  The number of foreign investment projects into the UK dropped by 14 per cent to 1,782 in the fiscal year ending March 2019, marking the lowest level in six years, according to a report published on Wednesday by the UK’s Department for International Trade. It is the second consecutive annual fall since March 2017.

https://www.ft.com/content/6416a20a-9805-11e9-8cfb-30c211dcd229

ETA : I can't help thinking the arse has dropped out of The Unicorn market....

Edited June 27, 2019 by P.K.

[Non-Believer]

Yes, but at least it's our choice. (Quote, Mark Francois).

[woolley]

10 hours ago, Barrie Stevens said:

Nobody knows what is going to happen until it happens. No one can say for certain. The people in charge do not know. I rather get the impression that neither the EU or Parliament nor business has much of a say if we revert to WTO situation. Boris him say no tariffs ...Then under WTO it is said we have to treat all others the same so that cheap stuff floods in and our own farmers and processors get undercut and uncompetitive as they were from 1870 to 1915..I had that Jeremy Hunt down on manor yesterday....

So follow your own logic then. It is in nobody's interest for it to happen, therefore it won't. Nobody wants tariffs!

[woolley]

9 hours ago, manxman1980 said:

I will take you up on the point about tariffs.  

Assume we leave the EU without an agreement and immediately we have to trade under WTO rules (rules not a deal/agreement).  Immediately work will begin on a trade agreement between the UK and the EU, however, the EU will not offer the UK the same terms we have now.  Any deal with the EU will be worse for the UK - there is no way the UK gets an improvement on the current arrangements with the UK.  Businesses know this and are taking steps to prepare for the worse.

As far as I am aware there is no transitional arrangements in the event that the UK leaves on the 31st October without an agreement.  Trade agreements are not drawn up overnight but I suspect that the EU already has a draft prepared that could be used as a transitional arrangement - the UK probably not... 

Now back to the bigger picture...  In the event of no agreement being in place what happens with travel etc?  These as far as I am aware still not clear.  I know that EU citizens resident in the UK will be able to apply for pre-settled status but what about business trips and short term travel such as holidays?

So follow your own logic then. It is in nobody's interest for it to happen, therefore it won't. Nobody wants tariffs! You mention travel and the same applies. The Mediterranean would be in a sorry state if the British stop going on their holidays! Look at the reality rather than technical cobblers. Either there will be an arrangement (a deal or some series of understandings), or the backsliders will thwart Brexit. What will not happen is a complete fracture of trading.

[woolley]

8 hours ago, Freggyragh said:

Tariffs are only one factor of the ongoing brexit confusion.

Since brexit the pound has gained about 15% against the USD, but lost about 17% of its value against the Euro, 23% against the Japanese Yen, 19% against the Korean Won, 9% against RMB, etc. 

It might start you suspecting that the US and U.K. are engaged in deliberate attempts to shock the markets with erratic and irrational political leadership in order to deliberately devalue their currencies. 

Long term problem after Brexit would be to try to restrain sterling from rising too high.

[woolley]

3 hours ago, P.K. said:

@woolley

Can't think why.....

The FT:

ETA : I can't help thinking the arse has dropped out of The Unicorn market....

Absolutely not. Selective reporting. 2016 was a spectacular year (after the referendum too) so it has dropped since then. It's cyclical. You will note that it says "lowest for 6 years" - 2013-14 - before the nightmare of Brexit had begun.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-holds-more-foreign-investment-than-germany-and-france-combined

In the globalised world (with which much is wrong), inward investment means confidence, and the UK draws in more than Germany and France combined. And you say it's a basket case.

You simply enjoy talking Britain down, and you want it to fail just so you can crow about how wonderful is your beloved EU.

[woolley]

3 hours ago, Freggyragh said:

What kind of investment is it though? New factories? Or, is it just a fire sale of British owned assets that have had their Euro values slashed by nearly 20% since the referendum?  

It's a mixture. Companies, start-ups, green field developments, all kinds of investment. Immaterial really, isn't it, if we're going to hell in a handcart as you and your subordinates keep telling us we are.