P.K. Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, woolley said: It isn't. More Project Fear for the masses. The OBR has no mystical powers. Was it the BBC that reported it? It was! FAKE NEWS! Definitely Project Fear due to the appalling BBC bias of anti-brexit, anti-right wing and anti-stupidity. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Auntie Stupidity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbie Bobster Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 3 hours ago, woolley said: It isn't. More Project Fear for the masses. The OBR has no mystical powers. That's why I said opined. It's a best estimate from subject matter experts about the likely cost of no deal (and I don't think anyone could argue that no deal will be cost-neutral) From commentary, it seems to be a mid-range estimate, neither blindly optimistic nor rabidly pessimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Of course it's "an opinion" from official sources, and "mid-range" as you say, so that it might avoid any finger pointing later on. Other opinions from official sources were the "full blown recession" the day after a Leave vote and up to a million job losses. I give this opinion as much credence as I gave those. I note them and digest with a huge shovel of salt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 53 minutes ago, woolley said: Of course it's "an opinion" from official sources, and "mid-range" as you say, so that it might avoid any finger pointing later on. Other opinions from official sources were the "full blown recession" the day after a Leave vote and up to a million job losses. I give this opinion as much credence as I gave those. I note them and digest with a huge shovel of salt. Sorry Woolster but this lot have been crunching the numbers. And the point is they HAVE the numbers to crunch. So it's not like the brexiteers saying that everything will be wonderful because the UK will no longer be crushed under the iron heel of those Evil Goblins iin Brussels who are intent on world domination. Personally I never believed that story anyway.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbie Bobster Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 1 hour ago, woolley said: I give this opinion as much credence as I gave those. I note them and digest with a huge shovel of salt. Do you believe there will be no financial consequences to a no deal brexit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 40 minutes ago, P.K. said: Sorry Woolster but this lot have been crunching the numbers. And the point is they HAVE the numbers to crunch. Precisely as they crunched the numbers that they had prior to the referendum and came up with meaningless results. If number crunching provided certainty then we'd all be millionaires. Well, those that can do the maths. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, woolley said: Precisely as they crunched the numbers that they had prior to the referendum and came up with meaningless results. If number crunching provided certainty then we'd all be millionaires. Well, those that can do the maths. Nothing to do with pre-referendum and everything to do with consequences. Which at the time of the referendum were a big black hole. Those teflon shoulders of yours have been taking quite a pounding recently. In the run up tp Halloween I suggest you have them replaced with kevlar.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 40 minutes ago, Bobbie Bobster said: Do you believe there will be no financial consequences to a no deal brexit? A question of if it happens and how it happens. The "no deal" thing is as much a dog's dinner as everything else surrounding this, because it is not and cannot be a final destination. That is why it is ridiculous to put figures on something that won't stay still for long enough to count. There would be short term consequences for both sides, so it depends on how long everyone wants to spend grandstanding about how tough they are after exit and how soon everyone gets around the table to sort out the arrangements that will inevitably have to apply in the end. Business will not put up with a long interruption, so I would judge it would be pretty soon - within weeks. As I have said before, the fact that the EU is not interested in talking about that end situation now is proof positive that it is first and foremost a political project rather than a trading bloc interested in the furtherance of its members' interests. Furthermore, so long as we have doltish Parliamentarians talking openly of blocking "no deal" and even revocation, we are encouraging the EU in its stance of doing nothing in the hope that the whole Brexit thing will go away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, P.K. said: Nothing to do with pre-referendum and everything to do with consequences. Which at the time of the referendum were a big black hole. Those teflon shoulders of yours have been taking quite a pounding recently. In the run up tp Halloween I suggest you have them replaced with kevlar.... Water off a ducks back, PK. Especially when the contrary arguments are so narrow, repetitive and inane. They had numbers to crunch before the referendum just as they have now. They made a horlicks of it then when the big black hole didn't materialise, and they will again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbie Bobster Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 A simple no would have sufficed. But thank you. So as a mid-range estimate, it's probably the best we have. As they say, £30bn per annum. Pretty pricey! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, woolley said: Water off a ducks back, PK. Especially when the contrary arguments are so narrow, repetitive and inane. They had numbers to crunch before the referendum just as they have now. They made a horlicks of it then when the big black hole didn't materialise, and they will again. So let's have your take on what next is best for the UK if the numbers, and their consequences, are correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, P.K. said: So let's have your take on what next is best for the UK if the numbers, and their consequences, are correct. I won't deal in an "if" as big as that, because I don't see "no deal" as one dimensionally as they and you obviously do. I've already explained that "no deal" will look more like "some deal" after a few weeks simply because it will have to. Is that too difficult to grasp on a Friday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbie Bobster Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, woolley said: I've already explained that "no deal" will look more like "some deal" after a few weeks simply because it will have to. The OBR allowed for this in their central estimate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 42 minutes ago, woolley said: I won't deal in an "if" as big as that, because I don't see "no deal" as one dimensionally as they and you obviously do. I've already explained that "no deal" will look more like "some deal" after a few weeks simply because it will have to. Is that too difficult to grasp on a Friday? So everything will be fine because you say so. Got it! As to not dealing in a big "if" brexit has always been a massive "if" - as big as a whole coutry's economy in fact. Happy to pontificate on that though, aren't you....? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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