manxman1980 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, woolley said: Experts say that the millennium bug will stop all systems working and planes will fall from the skies. Experts say by the year 2000 medical science will have eradicated infectious disease. *sigh* See this for the millennium bug https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/Y2K-bug/ . There were some issues but because the problem was identified then solutions were put in place and in the end it pretty much passed by without incident. It did, however, mean the media could sell stories based on planes falling from the skies because sensationalism sells! As Richard has already pointed out there are many diseases that were on the brink of eradication that have made a come back thanks to the anti-vaccination movement in the western world all because of the debunked claim that the vaccines cause autism. 2 hours ago, woolley said: The "experts" did not reckon for microbial mutation fighting back. The bugs were smarter than they were. Or perhaps they did not expect antibiotics to be over prescribed and overused which allowed for the evolution of the "super bugs". Listen to some US Doctors who are constantly asked for antibiotics to treat the common cold and who, if they do not get a prescription, go to another Doctor who will prescribe them. Experts can identify possible scenarios and implement strategies to mitigate the impact. The same as the Bank of England did following the result of the referendum as they managed the UK economy to ensure it continued ticking along. Whether they will manage the same trick in the event of a no deal Brexit is an entirely different matter but I am sure they experts will be modelling possible outcomes and solutions that will minimise the impact. Also consider the number of people who are prescribed antibiotics but who do not complete the full course because they feel better. There is a reason experts tell you to complete a course of medication. Edited July 30, 2019 by manxman1980 Edited to add comment on completing courses of drugs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 On 7/29/2019 at 9:24 AM, woolley said: National self-determination can never be a lost cause. @woolley Nice tangential smokescreen. Respect! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 34 minutes ago, P.K. said: @woolley Nice tangential smokescreen. Respect! And true to boot! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 47 minutes ago, manxman1980 said: *sigh* Sigh. See this for the millennium bug https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/Y2K-bug/ . There were some issues but because the problem was identified then solutions were put in place and in the end it pretty much passed by without incident. It did, however, mean the media could sell stories based on planes falling from the skies because sensationalism sells! The problem was way over-hyped by the IT industry and it yielded billions of unnecessary work. It was a clear vested interest. I know this from the inside. Unmodified (non Y2k compliant) stuff that shouldn't have worked after 2000 fired up without a hitch. As Richard has already pointed out there are many diseases that were on the brink of eradication that have made a come back thanks to the anti-vaccination movement in the western world all because of the debunked claim that the vaccines cause autism. Yep. The anti-vaccination movement. Kicked off by even more "experts". Or perhaps they did not expect antibiotics to be over prescribed and overused which allowed for the evolution of the "super bugs". Listen to some US Doctors who are constantly asked for antibiotics to treat the common cold and who, if they do not get a prescription, go to another Doctor who will prescribe them. Not just US doctors. But again you pinpoint the weakness of expert opinion. It never has all of the scenarios at hand to make a cast iron judgement. I've had many "experts" over the years from financial institutions, government agencies, accountants etc. advising me what I should do in business. Most of them have one thing in common. No personal risk, fat salaries, regular hours and the prospect of a cushy pension at the end of it. Had I taken all of their advice verbatim I would have been bankrupt rather than making a fortune. Take advice into account by all means, but never take it as gospel. Experts can identify possible scenarios and implement strategies to mitigate the impact. The same as the Bank of England did following the result of the referendum as they managed the UK economy to ensure it continued ticking along. Whether they will manage the same trick in the event of a no deal Brexit is an entirely different matter but I am sure they experts will be modelling possible outcomes and solutions that will minimise the impact. "Possible" being the most important word there. Most of them will be modelling with a Remain, Europhile hat on. They will see downsides but no upsides. Also consider the number of people who are prescribed antibiotics but who do not complete the full course because they feel better. There is a reason experts tell you to complete a course of medication. That's just common sense. If the experts are so expert, how could they not foresee such an obvious human behavioural trait as this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIchard Britten Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 15 minutes ago, woolley said: Yep. The anti-vaccination movement. Kicked off by even more "experts". Fake experts, but that is a different story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIchard Britten Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 15 minutes ago, woolley said: That's just common sense. If the experts are so expert, how could they not foresee such an obvious human behavioural trait as this? But you can, so are you an expert? Also do you ever go to the doctors or is a quick visit to Google? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 29 minutes ago, RIchard Britten said: But you can, so are you an expert? Also do you ever go to the doctors or is a quick visit to Google? Straw man. I'm looking back with clear hindsight at past human behaviour, so I don't need to be an expert. Doctors also are only human despite their training and knowledge, so you have to interpret what they say too, rather than accepting it as 100% fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIchard Britten Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, woolley said: Straw man. I'm looking back with clear hindsight at past human behaviour, so I don't need to be an expert. So you are saying that you apply prior experience and knowledge to reach a conclusion based on the available information at the time time to make an "educated guess" to a future event or outcome? Sounds like an expert to me... 3 minutes ago, woolley said: Doctors also are only human despite their training and knowledge, so you have to interpret what they say too, rather than accepting it as 100% fact. Indeed, however, you still go to them rather than say, trusting gut feeling, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 1 hour ago, woolley said: The problem was way over-hyped by the IT industry and it yielded billions of unnecessary work. It was a clear vested interest. I know this from the inside. Unmodified (non Y2k compliant) stuff that shouldn't have worked after 2000 fired up without a hitch. I was on the inside and it most definitely was not over-hyped. You must know some very devious " inside" people then. The problem was that software development tended to be built around previously written stuff, what we called "legacy" code. There was no way we could check millions and millions of lines of code for errors. What we could do, and did, was spend weeks and weeks running various customer applications through the "tick-over" event. These were genuine customer applications that were kept in the support library that had been submitted to fix some bug or other in times past. So we found quite a few Y2K errors and fixed them prior to the event. However there was absolutely no way we could test every customer application. So people like me were on the hotlines over the New Year. This was a directive from the top in a multi-national organisation. It must have cost the company an absolute fortune. However we took calls and dealt with them. Building a new software release as we went along. What we hadn't anticipated were the issues that arose in the following months. So rather than keep shunting out releases we reverted to "patching" which you don't want to do because it means customers are essentially running bespoke systems making support harder. When it finally calmed down after a few months we built all the fixes into a final Y2K software release and that was that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) I'm not saying that some applications did not need to be checked and that genuine work wasn't involved, but it certainly was over-hyped, and that wasn't in isolated cases. It's difficult to convey now the panic that was kicked up back then, as 20 years have gone by. You'd have thought the world was about to end. Sound familiar? They're gearing up for another bonanza: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem Edited July 30, 2019 by woolley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbie Bobster Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 It would be interesting to take the same approach to Brexit as was taken for Y2K, I.e. comprehensively fix all the problems *before* the event. Unfortunately the exact opposite is happening. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manxman1980 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, woolley said: I'm not saying that some applications did not need to be checked and that genuine work wasn't involved, but it certainly was over-hyped, and that wasn't in isolated cases. It's difficult to convey now the panic that was kicked up back then, as 20 years have gone by. You'd have thought the world was about to end. Sound familiar? I remember the panic and the press coverage from that time, not sure why you have such an issue trying to recall it when you knew about the Y2K issues from the inside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 15 minutes ago, woolley said: I'm not saying that some applications did not need to be checked and that genuine work wasn't involved, but it certainly was over-hyped, and that wasn't in isolated cases. It's difficult to convey now the panic that was kicked up back then, as 20 years have gone by. You'd have thought the world was about to end. Sound familiar? They're gearing up for another bonanza: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem Unfortunately "planes falling out of the sky" due to faulty software has come all too true. So maybe not so fanciful after all.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 31 minutes ago, manxman1980 said: I remember the panic and the press coverage from that time, not sure why you have such an issue trying to recall it when you knew about the Y2K issues from the inside. I have no issue in recalling it. I said that it is difficult to convey now, 20 years later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 32 minutes ago, P.K. said: Unfortunately "planes falling out of the sky" due to faulty software has come all too true. So maybe not so fanciful after all.... Aye, but due to corner cutting, allegedly, rather than Y2k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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