So the UK is finished says Theresa Mayhem

[woolley]

2 minutes ago, P.K. said:

How very very sad.

But then you're a brexiteer.

So no surprises there then....

So do you not have a 6 month scenario to contribute then? Other than the monosyllabic "fucked"?

I think Johnson might just have overreached himself at the behest of Cummings. There are a lot of people who support Brexit but are frit of no deal. The prorogation of Parliament and the withdrawal of the whip from the rebels will play well with some voters, but badly with others. I certainly don't see a net gain there. He might have been better to have taken a more relaxed line. Not prorogued, not withdrawn the whip and allowed Parliament to do its worst. No deal was never getting through which should have been patently obvious. He would have reached the same point as now, but without the opprobrium of those who are now accusing him of unseemly aggression. He could have cast Parliament as the sole wreckers of the democratic vote to leave, but now he has muddied his own waters; overplayed his hand with hubris. That will be damaging in an election. Corbyn is not good at much but he is good at coming over as the humble servant of the people at these times. He has a lot to be humble about, of course.

There will obviously be an election and Boris might get a working majority, particularly if he can get a non-aggression pact with Farage, but I would guess at another hung parliament. He and Cummings are too full of themselves to seek such a deal so we will probably finish up with more lily-livered Liberals. Maybe another referendum next year. Text book example on how to cock up. It might have been a different story had Johnson taken over instead of May in 2016. More momentum (with a small "m") then to get things through, not to mention the majority bequeathed be "Call Me Dave". So thanks Mrs. May and thanks Mr. Gove.

[woolley]

12 minutes ago, mojomonkey said:

 

There's loads of them doing the rounds, those sort of photos are photoshop gold. Surprised Ken Clarke's gut isn't getting as much publicity.

No doubt the work of Momentum and their ilk. It's quite sinister. You can take equally unflattering pictures of all sides of the house. They spend so much time there, you just pick the most undignified moments from hours and hours of footage. Slouching, scratching, nose excavating, knicker flashing, sleeping, yawning.

[Bobbie Bobster]

11 hours ago, woolley said:

Instead of the usual tit for tat arguments about the pros and cons of Brexit/EU, anyone have any predictions on what will happen next and where it will all be in 6 months?

 

10 minutes ago, woolley said:

There will obviously be an election and Boris might get a working majority, particularly if he can get a non-aggression pact with Farage, but I would guess at another hung parliament. He and Cummings are too full of themselves to seek such a deal so we will probably finish up with more lily-livered Liberals. Maybe another referendum next year.

There's still plenty of hurdles to go over, but I think no deal is off and there will be an extension to the deadline.  Then either no confidence vote or Boris gets his 2/3rds for the GE, loses majority, "government of national unity" (4 words to strike terror etc.) and BrexRef II the result of which would be very close to call.  Either Cummings 4D's the feck out of it or else enough of the Great British Public gets tired of the 3 years of faff and says lets call the whole thing off (I realise this last bit is not very insightful)

[woody2]

20 minutes ago, woolley said:

So do you not have a 6 month scenario to contribute then? Other than the monosyllabic "fucked"?

I think Johnson might just have overreached himself at the behest of Cummings. There are a lot of people who support Brexit but are frit of no deal. The prorogation of Parliament and the withdrawal of the whip from the rebels will play well with some voters, but badly with others. I certainly don't see a net gain there. He might have been better to have taken a more relaxed line. Not prorogued, not withdrawn the whip and allowed Parliament to do its worst. No deal was never getting through which should have been patently obvious. He would have reached the same point as now, but without the opprobrium of those who are now accusing him of unseemly aggression. He could have cast Parliament as the sole wreckers of the democratic vote to leave, but now he has muddied his own waters; overplayed his hand with hubris. That will be damaging in an election. Corbyn is not good at much but he is good at coming over as the humble servant of the people at these times. He has a lot to be humble about, of course.

There will obviously be an election and Boris might get a working majority, particularly if he can get a non-aggression pact with Farage, but I would guess at another hung parliament. He and Cummings are too full of themselves to seek such a deal so we will probably finish up with more lily-livered Liberals. Maybe another referendum next year. Text book example on how to cock up. It might have been a different story had Johnson taken over instead of May in 2016. More momentum (with a small "m") then to get things through, not to mention the majority bequeathed be "Call Me Dave". So thanks Mrs. May and thanks Mr. Gove.

its already through........

[woody2]

3 minutes ago, Bobbie Bobster said:

 

There's still plenty of hurdles to go over, but I think no deal is off and there will be an extension to the deadline.  Then either no confidence vote or Boris gets his 2/3rds for the GE, loses majority, "government of national unity" (4 words to strike terror etc.) and BrexRef II the result of which would be very close to call.  Either Cummings 4D's the feck out of it or else enough of the Great British Public gets tired of the 3 years of faff and says lets call the whole thing off (I realise this last bit is not very insightful)

and then you woke up.........

[Bobbie Bobster]

Or maybe some sort of new government could have enough of a mandate to get a Citizens Assembly accepted and hand the problem over to say 500 poor schmucks to decide for the rest of "us".  Might be a way to start to heal the divisions.

[woolley]

1 minute ago, Bobbie Bobster said:

 

There's still plenty of hurdles to go over, but I think no deal is off and there will be an extension to the deadline.  Then either no confidence vote or Boris gets his 2/3rds for the GE, loses majority, "government of national unity" (4 words to strike terror etc.) and BrexRef II the result of which would be very close to call.  Either Cummings 4D's the feck out of it or else enough of the Great British Public gets tired of the 3 years of faff and says lets call the whole thing off (I realise this last bit is not very insightful)

There seems to have been a great appetite for "faff" as you call it. I think the Great British Public moan about it - they are inveterate moaners about everything, it comes with the climate - but much like Love Island and I'm A Celebrity, they're going to miss it when it's over. They have developed a love hate relationship with the whole argument.

[woody2]

has jolyon ever won a exit case.........

Brexit: Judge rejects parliament shutdown legal challenge

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49568760

[woolley]

1 minute ago, Bobbie Bobster said:

Or maybe some sort of new government could have enough of a mandate to get a Citizens Assembly accepted and hand the problem over to say 500 poor schmucks to decide for the rest of "us".  Might be a way to start to heal the divisions.

Didn't the Irish do that? Feckin' stupid idea. Finish up in a mass brawl.

[woody2]

1 minute ago, Bobbie Bobster said:

Or maybe some sort of new government could have enough of a mandate to get a Citizens Assembly accepted and hand the problem over to say 500 poor schmucks to decide for the rest of "us".  Might be a way to start to heal the divisions.

don't they have 650 for that......

[Bobbie Bobster]

Just now, woolley said:

...they're going to miss it when it's over. They have developed a love hate relationship with the whole argument.

I get more of a sense of exasperation at this stage.  Again, regardless of pros and cons there's no doubt that the issue has absorbed a huge amount of political effort that could have been diverted to other pressing problems - surely the UK can't spend another 2-3 years going around in circles?

[woody2]

everyone (remoans) keep going on about this 2/3..........once that fails today.........bj only needs 50% + 1 for a ge......

 

[Bobbie Bobster]

2 minutes ago, woolley said:

Didn't the Irish do that? Feckin' stupid idea. Finish up in a mass brawl.

Seemed to work quite well for the Eight Amendment on abortion, an issue which despite the waning influence of the church could have torn the country apart. (extra points for hyperbole)

[woody2]

1 minute ago, Bobbie Bobster said:

I get more of a sense of exasperation at this stage.  Again, regardless of pros and cons there's no doubt that the issue has absorbed a huge amount of political effort that could have been diverted to other pressing problems - surely the UK can't spend another 2-3 years going around in circles?

that's what this remoan bill will lead to........

[woolley]

3 minutes ago, woody2 said:

its already through........ (NO DEAL)

It's never got through Parliament, Woody, except as the default position as part of the Withdrawal Act. There is no majority for it and it will keep getting knocked back. Johnson has tried a number of tricks, but as we can see, they are kicking back hard and the tide is not really running with him as he would like it to. It isn't good, because the only way you can make the EU move is if they think no deal is a real possibility. If this legislation passes today, which looks inevitable, the only way for a no deal to go through is if there is a big, hard Brexit majority in a new Parliament. Do you see that happening? I'm not convinced.