Flybe nosedives on profits warning

[Lxxx]

37 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

Out national transport 'strategy' (such as it is) is a shambles. 

Is it as bad as we make out though? It's never been as cheap to get on and off, we've got three daily routes to London and daily routes to other main arterial cities like Manchester, Dublin and Liverpool.

Granted that's more by accident than by design but it's not too bad. I agree we do need some kind of joined up policy and someone acting on our behalf with the aviation industry who knows what they are talking about but we're not big or wealthy enough to go down the loss-making Aurigny or subsidising other operators routes.

It was only 10 years ago we were paying £350 for a return to London and only had one option to get to north west cities.

We always want more but market forces will dictate what we get unfortunately.

[Andy Onchan]

9 minutes ago, Lxxx said:

Is it as bad as we make out though? It's never been as cheap to get on and off, we've got three daily routes to London and daily routes to other main arterial cities like Manchester, Dublin and Liverpool.

Granted that's more by accident than by design but it's not too bad. I agree we do need some kind of joined up policy and someone acting on our behalf with the aviation industry who knows what they are talking about but we're not big or wealthy enough to go down the loss-making Aurigny or subsidising other operators routes.

It was only 10 years ago we were paying £350 for a return to London and only had one option to get to north west cities.

We always want more but market forces will dictate what we get unfortunately.

But by contrast we're spending +30 million on a terminal in LPL that has limited freight capacity (if at all) when we already have access to a reasonably good one at Heysham at no cost (especially since both ports are owned and operated by the same company,). Where's the sense in that?

I'd argue that we are more dependent on air transport now than at any other time, especially for health services. So far we've been lucky (as you have admitted). Right now we have no guarantee of an airport of arrival/departure in UK. Basically if FlyBe had gone belly up our off-Island health treatment strategy would be goosed. 

It's a disaster waiting to happen.

[Lxxx]

2 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

But by contrast we're spending +30 million on a terminal in LPL that has limited freight capacity (if at all) when we already have access to a reasonably good one at Heysham at no cost (especially since both ports are owned and operated by the same company,). Where's the sense in that?

I'd argue that we are more dependent on air transport now than at any other time, especially for health services. So far we've been lucky (as you have admitted). Right now we have no guarantee of an airport of arrival/departure in UK. Basically if FlyBe had gone belly up our off-Island health treatment strategy would be goosed. 

It's a disaster waiting to happen.

I suppose it's a glass half full/empty scenario. We now own our ferry service, granted the port fiasco will probably end with Peel running rings around us and costing us money but the same could be said for most things our government touches.

You're expecting our transport strategy to somehow make sense when everything else that has gone before it, covering all aspects of island life, has gone tits up and hit us in the pocket. On that basis I think market forces are doing just fine on the aviation side, entirely because it's not got a government minister/civil servants hindering us with their lack of wisdom.

[John Wright]

I see that the flybe GSY-LHR route has come at a cost to Guernsey tax payers. £675,000 in direct subsidy and £145,000 in rebated landing fees. That’s over 7 months. So £4000 a day. £52 per available seat. Depending on load factor it’ll probably be much more.

Thats on top of the multi million annual subsidy they already pump into States owned Aurigny.

[Lxxx]

2 minutes ago, John Wright said:

I see that the flybe GSY-LHR route has come at a cost to Guernsey tax payers. £675,000 in direct subsidy and £145,000 in rebated landing fees. That’s over 7 months. So £4000 a day. £52 per available seat. Depending on load factor it’ll probably be much more.

Thats on top of the multi million annual subsidy they already pump into States owned Aurigny.

Exactly why we shouldn't let our government anywhere near our aviation policy. We'd trump that and more.

[woolley]

6 hours ago, Andy Onchan said:

We'll see. There's no guarantee that any IOM services are secure, the 'hospital' runs excepted perhaps.

Supposed to be reopening the IOM base on 1st April aren't they?

[Andy Onchan]

1 minute ago, woolley said:

Supposed to be reopening the IOM base on 1st April aren't they?

Allegedly.

[woolley]

41 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

But by contrast we're spending +30 million on a terminal in LPL that has limited freight capacity (if at all) when we already have access to a reasonably good one at Heysham at no cost (especially since both ports are owned and operated by the same company,). Where's the sense in that?

 

Don't believe there is any sense in it. If that was the only option for Liverpool I would have written it off and concentrated on Heysham. Use Birkenhead as at present for winter and maybe a few additional sailings. I don't think it is value at all, particularly with no major freight facility. Poor value for £30m (and the rest, no doubt, by the time we've finished). Maybe forget fast craft and have two conventional Ro-Pax too. Not as fast, but more resilience year round.

[Andy Onchan]

29 minutes ago, John Wright said:

I see that the flybe GSY-LHR route has come at a cost to Guernsey tax payers. £675,000 in direct subsidy and £145,000 in rebated landing fees. That’s over 7 months. So £4000 a day. £52 per available seat. Depending on load factor it’ll probably be much more.

Thats on top of the multi million annual subsidy they already pump into States owned Aurigny.

I reckon load factor will somewhere between 75% -85%

[Andy Onchan]

27 minutes ago, Lxxx said:

Exactly why we shouldn't let our government anywhere near our aviation policy. We'd trump that and more.

But that's exactly what's happened to our sea strategy.

None of it makes sense in the bigger scheme of things.

[Lxxx]

6 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

But that's exactly what's happened to our sea strategy.

None of it makes sense in the bigger scheme of things.

I agree. However you're saying our air policy is a disaster waiting to happen but the reason it's holding up is precisely because we have let the market dictate with a light touch open skies policy. We can't have it both ways. If our government weighed in we'd be following on from the expensive seas policy by trumping Guernsey's model for burning taxpayer funds.

[Andy Onchan]

2 minutes ago, Lxxx said:

I agree. However you're saying our air policy is a disaster waiting to happen but the reason it's holding up is precisely because we have let the market dictate with a light touch open skies policy. We can't have it both ways. If our government weighed in we'd be following on from the expensive seas policy by trumping Guernsey's model for burning taxpayer funds.

There's no light touch that I can see, it's completely Open. Even the 'hospital' air service isn't guaranteed.

We're doomed, I tell ye.... doomed!

[manxst]

Flybe has been sold to Richard Branson/Virgin led consortium. Thoughts on effects this will potentially have for us?

[John Wright]

21 minutes ago, manxst said:

Flybe has been sold to Richard Branson/Virgin led consortium. Thoughts on effects this will potentially have for us?

Catch up at the back. Scroll back to page 6 or 7. Read.

Branson hasn’t a record of success with feeder airlines.

There'll always be someone willing to fly IoM LPL. Other routes, and operators, come and go. Have done since the days of Dan Air, BEA, Silver City, Cambrian.

The only real option is an airline based here, operating a network centred here. Manx did that. However the air industry has moved on since then.

[Nellie]

1 hour ago, Andy Onchan said:

I reckon load factor will somewhere between 75% -85%

How can that possibly be an informed comment? You've just plucked those numbers totally out of thin air!