Flybe nosedives on profits warning

[Roger Mexico]

1 hour ago, thesultanofsheight said:

Well not really as few have full money in the pot. That’s the point of a bail out scheme. It’s there to bail out those who cant afford to meet payments due when insolvency hits. Unless it’s based in the IOM where people can legally just fuck off. You can imagine Flybe are grateful for all the services the IOM has provided. It’s got them off the hook for millions. 

It's not Flybe who are off the hook - if you're bust. you're bust.  It's other people in the UK paying into their pension schemes who have escaped because their schemes will not have to pay more into to the Pension Protection Fund that would take responsibility if this was the UK scheme for a collapsed company.  Naturally those who were actually responsible for the collapse will have no financial loss - probably the opposite.

[Capt_Mainwaring]

Always the same when a company goes into administration Roger, those who were responsible either end up living the life of Riley or starting up under a new name. Never seems fair.

[Roger Mexico]

7 hours ago, Lxxx said:

That just tells you the UK domestic air market was massively subsidised for years to be something it really wasn't. 

The UK domestic air market is a rather odd creature.  The 2019 CAA figures are ready yet, but the 2018 ones are quite revealing.  There were three big operators in terms of passengers:  easyJet[1] with 37.5% of the market, BA with 27% and Flybe slight less with just under 27% - leaving well under 10% for everybody else.  But in terms of flights Flybe had 34%,  BA 18% and easyJet 21%.  The other operators percentage soars to 27% because they tend to operate small planes on remote routes.  Loganair is the biggest and runs 13.5% of all flights, but only carries 3.3% of passengers.

Load factors are another difference.  easyJet managed to fill around 84% of their seats, while BA managed around 70%.  But Flybe only manged 60%.  Again there are structural reasons.  If like BA and easyJet most of your flights are between two large population centres and you are running several a day, then you can easily consolidate depending on demand.  If like Flybe they are between a large and a smaller population centre and there are fewer flights a day or one a day or even less, than that isn't an option.  Having to use smaller planes means costs per seat are higher and you can't use strategies such as over-booking.  

Flybe were the classic 'squeezed middle' company.  They didn't have the economies of scale and flexibility of large operators or the specialist niches and social subsidies of the small ones.  They always relied on a basis of a declining market in the shape of business travel (of course that was also the reason for expanding Ronaldsway).  They were too reliant on a sector of the industry that has been at best static in the form of domestic flights.

But their departure causes real problems for the British airline industry and the UK government.  Except maybe for Scotland (because of Loganair), the outlying areas of the UK that already feel neglected will feel even more so with loss of jobs and business connections.  Connections to outside the UK via London will be harder without Flybe's feeder role and domestic flights now being an effective duopoly will have its dangers.

 

[1]  easyJet changed its registration in the middle of the year for Brexit reasons, so its numbers are split over two operators in 2018 and have to be added together.  BA figures include BA CityFlyer.

[GD4ELI]

8 hours ago, P.K. said:

In my experience e-mail and video-con are fine for day to day stuff.

But face to face is the only way to build trust...

I'm not sure - I'm in software, if the software works and the price is right then there's no need to see my ugly mug. Anyway, there's salesmen for pressing the flesh.

[Manx Bean]

As predicted, when his holiness the Chief Cockwomble was interviewed on BBC Breakfast this morning, his only reference was about TT visitors being able to get here. No mention of the effect on residents - you know, us dickheads who pay his wages. Typical politician - why do they all think the whole world revolves around the TT? Fat idiot.

[Uhtred]

21 minutes ago, Manx Bean said:

As predicted, when his holiness the Chief Cockwomble was interviewed on BBC Breakfast this morning, his only reference was about TT visitors being able to get here. No mention of the effect on residents - you know, us dickheads who pay his wages. Typical politician - why do they all think the whole world revolves around the TT? Fat idiot.

Agreed. What a disgrace. Tynwald...please note.

[RIchard Britten]

14 hours ago, John Wright said:

Woody2 still retains the ability to misunderstand and misrepresent the simplest of facts!

 

[Derek Flint]

The state of things today.

By my reckoning that is movement of less than 2000 pax per day on the combined inbound and outbound sectors. And 600 of those seats are to and from the Island of Ireland.

And just as a sampler, I planned a theoretical weekend away in either Liverpool or London for a couple of weeks time. Market forces already gripping Liverpool route. 

If I was a journalist, I’d be riding them like Shergar on this one.

[Andy Onchan]

2 minutes ago, Derek Flint said:

The state of things today.

By my reckoning that is movement of less than 2000 pax per day on the combined inbound and outbound sectors. And 600 of those seats are to and from the Island of Ireland.

And just as a sampler, I planned a theoretical weekend away in either Liverpool or London for a couple of weeks time. Market forces already gripping Liverpool route. 

If I was a journalist, I’d be riding them like Shergar on this one.

Well for those who support IOMG's current unfettered, uncontrolled Open Sky policy, you've got you wanted.

[asitis]

.......... and as predicted in 2006 the demise of the small operators was hastened once a low cost carrier was catered for ! I refer specifically about our situation as a small island and the tiny part we may have played in the demise of Flybe!

I have always described airlines here as being a merry go round of operators due to the open skies policy, perhaps the merry go round has ground to a halt .

Interesting times ahead!

 

[thesultanofsheight]

9 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

Well for those who support IOMG's current unfettered, uncontrolled Open Sky policy, you've got you wanted.

Easy jet Liverpool was always pretty impossible to book as it was. It’s just now the reality that there is no other option. 

[Non-Believer]

I'm told EZY to Liverpool now fully booked up for the next 2 weeks, anybody confirm?

[Derek Flint]

28 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

Easy jet Liverpool was always pretty impossible to book as it was. It’s just now the reality that there is no other option. 

I’ve always been able to get reasonably priced, reasonably short notice tickets for Lpl. Invariably the most cost effective option for the NW was to fly and hire a car through there.

[Derek Flint]

Just now, Non-Believer said:

I'm told EZY to Liverpool now fully booked up for the next 2 weeks, anybody confirm?

See the screen grab I posted earlier. That was this morning.

[Roger Mexico]

2 hours ago, Andy Onchan said:

Well for those who support IOMG's current unfettered, uncontrolled Open Sky policy, you've got you wanted.

Well except that if everything had been given to one preferred operator, they could have still gone under and the Airport would be completely deserted.  Unless you think that Flybe would have gouged the Manx public and government so much that the money would have been enough to keep the whole airline going.