Flybe nosedives on profits warning

[madmanxpilot]

19 minutes ago, tetchtyke said:

Stobart losing the Aer Lingus Regional contract is likely to be the final nail in their coffin, if they survive the year I'll be astounded. Which will be useful for Emerald Airlines, a new airline with no planes and no history but with a boss who used to work for Aer Lingus, who have won the next Regional contract.

 

It may well be that Stobart Air, if they are not sold in the interim, end up doing the flying for Emerald. Stobart Air is after all solely an ACMI outfit  - a provider of Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance and Insurance.  They don't have the ability to sell flights themselves, all of their flying is done for 'real' airlines.

[tetchtyke]

The IOMG said at the time they didn't just talk to Loganair, and during the summer with the air bridge a stronger link with Aurigny was talked about again. I seriously doubt that there are countless other airlines lining up to compete with Loganair and undercut them.

Stobart can't sell their own seats but they were flying the Flybe and Lingus stuff here, so clearly there was something stopping them just carrying on. Loganair started out as an ACMI for Flybe and BA domestic too.

BA were paying Loganair to fly here.

Eastern haven't shown the slightest interest in the island for years, until they got some subsidy from the Teesside mayor to fly here during the summer.

Edited November 16, 2020 by tetchtyke

[Roger Mexico]

1 hour ago, jaymann said:

To me that isn't the question.

The real question is, how or was this tendered and is there not a cheaper alternative operator who won't act as was described above towards the Government and our Island?

The advantage with Loganair is that they are used to operating this sort of service in any case under subsidies from the Scottish Government.[1]  So they are unlikely to collapse which would be the danger with a cheaper alternative, who perhaps will to underbid in an attempt to survive.  Such an alternative would be more likely to demand more security later because pulling out of existing contracts would be easier - they have less to lose.

(Incidentally their Executive Chairman is Manx). 

[1]  Note the lack of 'commercial confidentiality'.

[Banker]

Here’s the link to aurigny losses for those of interested, see they also need A £53m lending facility.

https://guernseypress.com/news/2020/11/17/aurigny-forecast-to-lose-at-least-24m-this-year/

[NoTailT]

Just  read on another forum that easyjet have been given more slots to increase the LGW route for IOM.

[Andy Onchan]

31 minutes ago, NoTailT said:

Just  read on another forum that easyjet have been given more slots to increase the LGW route for IOM.

Any chance you can provide the link, please?

[John Wright]

23 hours ago, madmanxpilot said:

Aurigny's 'loss' really is the 'cost' of providing continuity and control of air services - something totally lacking here.

Or a vanity project which in less than 10 years, by end 20/21 financial will have cost Guernsey tax payers over £80 million revenue losses and £50 million in capital costs. I appreciate that some of that is public subsidy for Alderney, just like the Scottish Islands and Logan and CalMac. But that’s less than a quarter of the total. I also appreciate that £20m is Covid. But the rest is just pissed in the wind. No need.

Yes, continuity and control is a nice idea. But they don’t really have it. They’ve taken on the big boys and competed on routes where there isn’t enough traffic for two and nothing to preserve. There isn’t a threat to our main routes outside Covid. There is always someone willing to step in, because there’s profit, or a subsidy by way of patient transfers. We’ve never been without a London, Liverpool or Manchester connection. Same with Guernsey and it’s London and South England destinations.

Its like the Steam Packet having to provide a fast craft under the user agreement. Political interference. Unsuitable, unreliable, uneconomic. Political vanity.

If they’d stuck with small planes to Alderney, or subsidised a private operator...

[ellanvannin2010]

9 minutes ago, John Wright said:

Or a vanity project which in less than 10 years, by end 20/21 financial will have cost Guernsey tax payers over £80 million revenue losses and £50 million in capital costs. I appreciate that some of that is public subsidy for Alderney, just like the Scottish Islands and Logan and CalMac. But that’s less than a quarter of the total. I also appreciate that £20m is Covid. But the rest is just pissed in the wind. No need.

Yes, continuity and control is a nice idea. But they don’t really have it. They’ve taken on the big boys and competed on routes where there isn’t enough traffic for two and nothing to preserve. There isn’t a threat to our main routes outside Covid. There is always someone willing to step in, because there’s profit, or a subsidy by way of patient transfers. We’ve never been without a London, Liverpool or Manchester connection. Same with Guernsey and it’s London and South England destinations.

Its like the Steam Packet having to provide a fast craft under the user agreement. Political interference. Unsuitable, unreliable, uneconomic. Political vanity.

If they’d stuck with small planes to Alderney, or subsidised a private operator...

You could add the new passenger terminal in Liverpool to that list, £38million and counting for a terminal that if it is ever finished can only be used for passenger sailings

Edited November 17, 2020 by ellanvannin2010

[John Wright]

11 minutes ago, ellanvannin2010 said:

You could add the new passenger terminal in Liverpool to that list, £38million and counting for a terminal that if it is ever finished can only be used for passenger sailings

Fully agree. 

[asitis]

Maybe about now our politicos will be struck with the reality stick that is obvious to most of us. We are a small population on an island with limited market size. It follows that we need "niche" solutions to transportation, and that particularly air operators will not be clamouring to service us out of their own pockets. For too long vanity projects have shone brighter than realism, perhaps Covid is the reset we needed prior to elections in 2021.

[jaymann]

I see Loganair have been refused slots for Summer 2021 at Heathrow. Was to be expected I guess.

[Lxxx]

15 hours ago, asitis said:

Maybe about now our politicos will be struck with the reality stick that is obvious to most of us. We are a small population on an island with limited market size. It follows that we need "niche" solutions to transportation, and that particularly air operators will not be clamouring to service us out of their own pockets. For too long vanity projects have shone brighter than realism, perhaps Covid is the reset we needed prior to elections in 2021.

Air operators have been servicing the island brilliantly before Covid hit. To be able to get to the north-west, south-east and south-west for £20 has meant excellent and affordable service links. Open skies, for all the moaning, has worked for us thus far. Let's wait for the dust to settle on this crazy period before we make any major decisions on our air policy.

[John Wright]

Some one on one of the FB Manx history or nostalgia pages posted Manx Airlines 1999 fare table. Cheapest to London was £150 return. Luton had a £110 fare cracker. Liverpool had £69 fare cracker. Fares were eye watering. Full London return was £290. To get current day equivalents you multiply by 1.78. So that’s a £278 minimum  to Gatwick or City and £516 maximum. £122 cheapest return to Liverpool.

[Lxxx]

8 minutes ago, John Wright said:

Some one on one of the FB Manx history or nostalgia pages posted Manx Airlines 1999 fare table. Cheapest to London was £150 return. Luton had a £110 fare cracker. Liverpool had £69 fare cracker. Fares were eye watering. Full London return was £290. To get current day equivalents you multiply by 1.78. So that’s a £278 minimum  to Gatwick or City and £516 maximum. £122 cheapest return to Liverpool.

Some people just like to moan. Simple as that.

[NoTailT]

46 minutes ago, Lxxx said:

Air operators have been servicing the island brilliantly before Covid hit. To be able to get to the north-west, south-east and south-west for £20 has meant excellent and affordable service links. Open skies, for all the moaning, has worked for us thus far. Let's wait for the dust to settle on this crazy period before we make any major decisions on our air policy.

 

29 minutes ago, John Wright said:

Some one on one of the FB Manx history or nostalgia pages posted Manx Airlines 1999 fare table. Cheapest to London was £150 return. Luton had a £110 fare cracker. Liverpool had £69 fare cracker. Fares were eye watering. Full London return was £290. To get current day equivalents you multiply by 1.78. So that’s a £278 minimum  to Gatwick or City and £516 maximum. £122 cheapest return to Liverpool.

I hate to break it to ya, but those levels of fares are inevitable for the foreseeable future, no way we'll see cheap fares to/from the Island until maybe easyjet comes back. I read somewhere that easyjet were talking about closing down their Liverpool base and consolidating it all to Manchester, so that will be interesting to see how it impacts routes here.

@Andy Onchanthe bit on the gatwick slots I saw at https://www.pprune.org/10928688-post665.html