Flybe nosedives on profits warning

[Scotty]

3 hours ago, NoTailT said:

Mr Quine soon became a Gov mouthpiece didn't he?

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/heathrow-route-confident-statement-for-future-of-island/

Personally I don't see a situation where we have to underwrite routes as a confident statement in the Island, but oh well.

He also give the impression that LHR would carry on after all the restrictions have gone ? 
I was told on here that the LHR slots were only available short  term and would be taken back as soon as things picked up.

[jaymann]

3 minutes ago, Scotty said:

He also give the impression that LHR would carry on after all the restrictions have gone ? 
I was told on here that the LHR slots were only available short  term and would be taken back as soon as things picked up.

I'm not sure if anyone here knows more or better, they probably do. But my understanding here was that Loganair have been awarded slots for the IATA W21 season which runs up to end of March. They were refused slots for S21 (Summer 2021).

However, BA are currently offering multiple airlines that don't compete with their own business 3 year leases on slots at Heathrow to help them keep them used and T5 ticking. Eastern are negotiating with them for Teesside and Leeds, Loganair w/possible Gov backing are also at that table for IOM.

[IOM]

10 minutes ago, John Wright said:

We don’t know what the PT contract is. LHR has no relevance to patients. 

Aurigny are expected to lose £24million this year. Just had a cash flow loan of £57m.

By end next year cumulative losses will be around £80m

Indeed the last loss posted was nearly £10m but expected to be much higher as you say . The underwriting option makes far more sense and ensures the island remains connected .
Actually I think you will find some patients have undergone specialist treatment in London . And during the lockdown London City provided the connection to London to ensure key workers could get to the island to have no link at all to London would not make any sense .  And the agreement with Loganair works because they will manage the routes to Liverpool,Manchester and London as a hub with aircraft that are at least island based .

Anyway I would be fascinated to hear what other alternative plans there could be from those who don’t like it ! 

[NoTailT]

9 minutes ago, Scotty said:

He also give the impression that LHR would carry on after all the restrictions have gone ? 
I was told on here that the LHR slots were only available short  term and would be taken back as soon as things picked up.

They are only available short term, unless they pay to lease slots from another carrier.

[Scotty]

Thanks.

[NoTailT]

1 minute ago, IOM said:

Indeed the last loss posted was nearly £10m but expected to be much higher as you say . The underwriting option makes far more sense and ensures the island remains connected .
Actually I think you will find some patients have undergone specialist treatment in London . And during the lockdown London City provided the connection to London to ensure key workers could get to the island to have no link at all to London would not make any sense .  And the agreement with Loganair works because they will manage the routes to Liverpool,Manchester and London as a hub with aircraft that are at least island based .

Anyway I would be fascinated to hear what other alternative plans there could be from those who don’t like it ! 

I think the next big problem is that Lady Annabel and Lord Jez at the airport were caught with their pants down in March when Flybe went bump, despite advice from external sources to start putting plans in place.

All they’re doing right now is telling other airlines like Stobart and Eastern to piss off and leave them alone. There is no plan B if Loganair goes under or disappears for whatever reason, with every other regional operator being shut out.

the CEO of Aurigny refused to keep dialogue going because of how incompetent he thought Anne and Jez were.

[John Wright]

3 hours ago, IOM said:

Indeed the last loss posted was nearly £10m but expected to be much higher as you say . The underwriting option makes far more sense and ensures the island remains connected .
Actually I think you will find some patients have undergone specialist treatment in London . And during the lockdown London City provided the connection to London to ensure key workers could get to the island to have no link at all to London would not make any sense .  And the agreement with Loganair works because they will manage the routes to Liverpool,Manchester and London as a hub with aircraft that are at least island based .

Anyway I would be fascinated to hear what other alternative plans there could be from those who don’t like it ! 

Very few patients go to London.

No objection to LCY continuing. Don’t understand rationale for LHR, other than vanity project for IoMG and Logan have also always wanted. I’m assuming LHR on a jet is much more expensive to operate than LCY on a turboprop. Now they’ve got it temporarily at taxpayers expense.

Agree, Logan have promised a hub here. That makes sense. I’m not objecting to any of that, or underwriting in Covid. Just questioning why LHR.

[asitis]

1 hour ago, NoTailT said:

I think the next big problem is that Lady Annabel and Lord Jez at the airport were caught with their pants down in March when Flybe went bump, despite advice from external sources to start putting plans in place.

All they’re doing right now is telling other airlines like Stobart and Eastern to piss off and leave them alone. There is no plan B if Loganair goes under or disappears for whatever reason, with every other regional operator being shut out.

the CEO of Aurigny refused to keep dialogue going because of how incompetent he thought Anne and Jez were.

Most of the staff think they are an absolute joke ! Described to me as "dangerous idiots".

[All Right]

15 minutes ago, asitis said:

Most of the staff think they are an absolute joke ! Described to me as "dangerous idiots".

To my mind they have to conclude a deal with some entity like Logan Air. Easy Jet won’t budge on the commercial aspect, and Aurigny are backed by the Guernsey Government so can’t be bought as they will be underwritten regardless. The only solution is to wave cash at a small airline on the verge of bankruptcy to put up with our delusions and to kick the can 6 months down the line. They know that. 

[tetchtyke]

Loganair aren't on the verge of bankruptcy, though. Their bread and butter is PSO flights to small islands. It always has been, Loganair have been around in one form or another since the 60s.

Aurigny are losing £1m a month in a normal year, ten times that in a Covid year, yet they're seen as a credible alternative? Aye right. And that's without considering the fact Aurigny only have five planes: a single Embraer jet and four ATR72s. Quite how they'd run Guernsey's flights as well as ours, who knows.

Of the others, Stobart Air can't market their own flights as they don't have the infrastructure. And Eastern haven't shown the slightest bit of interest in operating to the island for a very long time, so I'm not sure why people are bothered about them now.

So I'm not sure flinging brick bats at Ronaldsway is quite justified this time.

[NoTailT]

11 hours ago, tetchtyke said:

Loganair aren't on the verge of bankruptcy, though. Their bread and butter is PSO flights to small islands. It always has been, Loganair have been around in one form or another since the 60s.

Aurigny are losing £1m a month in a normal year, ten times that in a Covid year, yet they're seen as a credible alternative? Aye right. And that's without considering the fact Aurigny only have five planes: a single Embraer jet and four ATR72s. Quite how they'd run Guernsey's flights as well as ours, who knows.

Of the others, Stobart Air can't market their own flights as they don't have the infrastructure. And Eastern haven't shown the slightest bit of interest in operating to the island for a very long time, so I'm not sure why people are bothered about them now.

So I'm not sure flinging brick bats at Ronaldsway is quite justified this time.

I think there's a lack of understanding.

Eastern: Have and continue to express interest in the IOM.

Stobart: About to get a UK AOC for their Belfast City flights and can switch up distribution and sales pathways at the drop of a hat.

Aurigny: I agree it's a basketcase. But the aircraft leasing market right now is at rock bottom - the worse it has ever been - aircraft are notoriously cheap to lease and get hold of right now.

Loganair: The brothers that own the business have been trying to sell it for 2 years and are reluctant to put any more cash in to prop it up. When they were focussed on the Scottish side of the business it had potential to become a profitable operation, but now they're competing with the likes of Eastern on routes out of Belfast, Teeside and Southamption and it's going to end badly for all concerned I think.

I think it is false to believe they are of a sound financial footing, they aren't, or are in no better position than Eastern and Stobart at least. Lady Annabel and Lord Jez are keeping a closed shop at the airport and refusing to engage with anyone other than Loganair. I also suspect they have misled treasury in securng the funding for Loganair's Heathrow route, as it transpires despite them saying they consulted all airlines for best value for money, both Stobart and Aurigny at least were not consulted.

Edited November 26, 2020 by NoTailT

[Andy Onchan]

This gives you some insight into how complex some of the issues are surrounding subventions etc., the pdf downloads are worth a reading.  

[tetchtyke]

On 11/26/2020 at 10:12 AM, NoTailT said:

I think there's a lack of understanding.

Eastern: Have and continue to express interest in the IOM.

Stobart: About to get a UK AOC for their Belfast City flights and can switch up distribution and sales pathways at the drop of a hat.

Aurigny: I agree it's a basketcase. But the aircraft leasing market right now is at rock bottom - the worse it has ever been - aircraft are notoriously cheap to lease and get hold of right now.

Loganair: The brothers that own the business have been trying to sell it for 2 years and are reluctant to put any more cash in to prop it up. When they were focussed on the Scottish side of the business it had potential to become a profitable operation, but now they're competing with the likes of Eastern on routes out of Belfast, Teeside and Southamption and it's going to end badly for all concerned I think.

I think it is false to believe they are of a sound financial footing, they aren't, or are in no better position than Eastern and Stobart at least. Lady Annabel and Lord Jez are keeping a closed shop at the airport and refusing to engage with anyone other than Loganair. I also suspect they have misled treasury in securng the funding for Loganair's Heathrow route, as it transpires despite them saying they consulted all airlines for best value for money, both Stobart and Aurigny at least were not consulted.

Eastern took over many of the old Manx2 routes (Newcastle, Belfast, etc) when Manx2 went bump. All of those routes have now gone, pretty much as soon as the government support dried up, and Eastern haven't been seen on the island for many years since. If Eastern are interested it's because they want taxpayer cash, not because they want to be here. Loganair, on the other hand, took over the Edinburgh route commercially when Flybe dropped it and have maintained presence here ever since.

Now no airline is altruistic, but Eastern have shown zero interest up to now. The only flight they were intending to run here in 2020, from Teesside, was only planned to operate because the Teesside mayor was paying for it.

I'd discount any routes out of Teesside as a commercial operation because the Teesside mayor is paying for pretty much all of them, the KLM and the Aberdeen routes excepted, and that was even before Covid. It's an election year on Teesside next year.

Stobart wanted to be here too, in fairness, having operated most of the Flybe stuff towards the end. But until they get themselves an AOC then they can't really do much. It's a shame, I have plenty of time for Stobart and fear for them when the Aer Lingus contract ends.

It's a shame we're hiding behind "commercial confidentiality" when the Scottish government say how much they pay Loganair.

I'm no insider so no doubt I am missing information. But when the other three airlines the DOI are apparently "ignoring" are an airline without an AOC, a financial basket case, and an airline that buggered off years ago, I don't see much of an issue.

Edited November 27, 2020 by tetchtyke

[NoTailT]

41 minutes ago, tetchtyke said:

Eastern took over many of the old Manx2 routes (Newcastle, Belfast, etc) when Manx2 went bump. All of those routes have now gone, pretty much as soon as the government support dried up, and Eastern haven't been seen on the island for many years since. If Eastern are interested it's because they want taxpayer cash, not because they want to be here. Loganair, on the other hand, took over the Edinburgh route commercially when Flybe dropped it and have maintained presence here ever since.

Now no airline is altruistic, but Eastern have shown zero interest up to now. The only flight they were intending to run here in 2020, from Teesside, was only planned to operate because the Teesside mayor was paying for it.

I'd discount any routes out of Teesside as a commercial operation because the Teesside mayor is paying for pretty much all of them, the KLM and the Aberdeen routes excepted, and that was even before Covid. It's an election year on Teesside next year.

Stobart wanted to be here too, in fairness, having operated most of the Flybe stuff towards the end. But until they get themselves an AOC then they can't really do much. It's a shame, I have plenty of time for Stobart and fear for them when the Aer Lingus contract ends.

It's a shame we're hiding behind "commercial confidentiality" when the Scottish government say how much they pay Loganair.

I'm no insider so no doubt I am missing information. But when the other three airlines the DOI are apparently "ignoring" are an airline without an AOC, a financial basket case, and an airline that buggered off years ago, I don't see much of an issue.

Just for correction, Stobart Air hold an Irish AOC and are about to be issued a UK one for post-Brexit matters. They could operate here tomorrow without restriction, it just gets a bit grey area post-Brexit because nobody has a scoobie what UK PLC will agree on with the EU about air travel yet.

On one hand I heard Lady Annabel and Lord Jez went out to the market to get pricing for operating in to London, yet I'm now updated with that Aurigny, Stobart and Eastern were not asked to participate although Eastern were in dialogue separately about a Heathrow route in combination with their Teeside one. Sounds like a closed shop for Loganair and no effective tender process at all.

I agree entirely on the commercial confidentiality. I suspect in truth, it's to avoid the raft of other operators above coming out the woodwork saying they could have delivered it for less (they probably could, probably couldn't, who knows) and how disgusting it is that they weren't consulted.

But Loganair is hardly off sound financial footing either. No better off than Eastern or Stobart.

[Uhtred]

I wouldn’t be remotely interested in the return of Eastern; they took the piss with their fares and would doubtless do so again.